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000
FXUS63 KMKX 271532 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1032 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE QUICKLY DEVELOPING THIS MORNING
UPSTREAM AS EXPECTED. WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY PUSH SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS
ROTATES THROUGH. STILL EXPECT DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE LATE
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH DECREASING TEMPS AFTER
THAT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND COLDER
AIR ALOFT MOVE IN.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE QUICKLY DEVELOPING THIS MORNING
UPSTREAM AS EXPECTED. WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY PUSH SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS
ROTATES THROUGH. SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY EXCEPT FOR MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE WITHIN MODERATE RAINFALL. WILL ALSO MONITOR POSSIBLE
MVFR CIGS AS MAIN COLD POOL ALOFT PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MOS SUGGEST VFR CIGS.

IT LOOKS PRETTY QUIET THEN MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...REACHING MADISON BY 14Z AND MILWAUKEE BETWEEN 16-17Z. WE
COULD SEE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE CWA BEFORE IT EXITS TO THE EAST. HEIGHTS ARE FALLING AS
AN IMPRESSIVELY STRONG UPPER TROF DROPS SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. UP UNTIL NOW...THE COLUMN HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY IN THE
MID LEVELS OVER SOUTHERN WI WITH DECENT CAPPING IN THE LOW
LEVELS...LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. BUT THIS WILL BE
MOISTENING UP QUICKLY JUST AS TEMPS ALOFT ARE COOLING.

THE HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT JUST AS IT/S
GETTING TO MADISON. THIS ISN/T A SURE THING...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A
REASONABLE AND POSSIBLE SCENARIO. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE COLD CORE
UPPER SYSTEM DROPS IN AND PRECIP SHOULD EXPAND UNDER THIS LOW BY
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA. THIS
WILL BE MAINLY SHOWERS...BUT WE COULD CRACK SOME THUNDER...SO WILL
KEEP THAT MENTION.

DRIER WEATHER WORKS IN QUICKLY TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT THAT CLEARS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY ABOUT 03Z SUN. THIS
WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S.

SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

SHORT TERM MODELS SHOWING 500 MB TROUGH LINGERING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA INTO THE EASTERN USA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
UPPER MIDWEST SHOULD REMAIN IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS A RESULT.
WEAK 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA PASS THROUGH THE AREA...MAINLY
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING LIGHT QPF ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH SHALLOW MEAN LAYER CAPE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
CONTINUED POPS FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS MONDAY...WITH 925 MB
TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING LOWER 70S EAST TO MID 70S WEST. COOL NIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED...WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW 500 MB TROUGH LINGERING TO THE EAST OF
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATING
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. VARIOUS VORTICITY MAXIMA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION AT TIMES.

GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS. KEPT POPS GOING FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE PLEASANT DURING THIS TIME...WITH ONSHORE WINDS AT TIMES
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN KEEPING THINGS COOLER THERE.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WE
START OUT WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG AND POSSIBLE IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS...BUT THIS WILL ONLY BE A THREAT THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THIS
MORNING. THEREAFTER WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND THIS SHOULD MIX OUT ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH KMSN BY 14Z AND KMKE/KENW/KUES BTWN
16-17Z. THERE IS A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...COOLER UPPER LEVELS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL RESULT IN EXPANDING PRECIPITATION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MOSTLY SHOWERS...BUT A THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE. STILL MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA VERY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WITH THAT...BUT SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY 06Z
MONDAY WITH DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED. LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z MON.

MARINE...

INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING...IN
THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT...WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FROM ABOUT 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
ON SUNDAY. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET TONIGHT...DIMINISHING
SLOWLY ON SUNDAY.

BEACHES...

INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL BRING BUILDING WAVES TO THE BEACHES
FROM SHEBOYGAN SOUTH THROUGH KENOSHA COUNTY. WAVES WILL REACH 3 TO
4 FEET ALONG THE SHORELINE BY EARLY THIS EVENING...BUILDING TO 4
TO 7 FEET TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ON SUNDAY. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN
EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
     MONDAY EVENING FOR WIZ052-060-066-071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY
     FOR LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CDT MONDAY
     FOR LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...DAVIS
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD