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000
FXUS63 KMKX 100840
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
340 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING ANOTHER QUIET DAY
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED...DENSE IN SPOTS...WITHIN
THE MARINE LAYER THAT HAS DRIFTED A SHORT DISTANCE INLAND FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN...MAINLY NORTH OF MILWAUKEE.  THIS SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE.  OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF SUN WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

QUIET YET TONIGHT. TOSSED IN A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
4 AM AS A BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS UPSTREAM...BUT PRECIP FOR THE MOST
PART WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE AXIS OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO WESTERN WI BY
12Z FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE NOSE WELL INTO NORTHWEST WI. THE JET
AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN WESTERLY
ACROSS NORTHERN IL FRIDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
SOUTH OF THE WI BORDER. THE STRONGER UPWARD MOTION WILL BE ALIGNED
WITH THE 700 AND 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER SOUTHERN WI FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TRACKING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SLIDE ACROSS
WI DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WI FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY...SO ONLY
MENTIONED CHANCE FOR THUNDER. PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHES 2 INCHES
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...SO PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE.

WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE STALLED 850MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE THROUGH NORTHERN IA AND IL FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE NOSE OF THE
LLJ...IT SEEMS LIKE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.
SOUTHERN WI WILL LIKELY BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS
COMPLEX...SO ADDED LIKELY POPS TO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES LATE
FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY FOR THE HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY. THEY WILL DEPEND
ON PRECIP AND CLOUD COVERAGE. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLIGHTLY
COOLER....TOWARD THE MID 70S INSTEAD OF UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN IL ON
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT.
SOUTHERN WI COULD GET CLIPPED BY THIS. THE 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODELS CAME IN WITH THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
WI...MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN THE NAM AND GFS. THIS INCREASES THE
UNCERTAINTY FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING PRECIP CHANCES.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN WI
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. SUNDAY MORNING IS
LOOKING LIKE A DRY PERIOD OF TIME.

BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...THE BIG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND ONTARIO WILL BE DROPPING INTO
SOUTHERN WI. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WITH THIS FRONT.

MONDAY AND BEYOND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SHORTWAVES DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH THE STRONG UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO COOL TEMPERATURES...
CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THEN DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO SOUTHERN WI BY WEDNESDAY
AND STAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY. THIS
PATTERN RESEMBLES ONE THAT OCCURRED JULY 17-18...2009 WHERE A RECORD
LOW MAX TEMP OF 66 WAS SET IN MADISON.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

SOME MARINE LAYER DENSE FOG ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN BEFORE SUNRISE. NOT
CONFIDENT WHETHER THIS WILL MATERIALIZE AT KMKE OR KENW. BELIEVE THE
HEAT ISLAND EFFECT OF THE CITY WILL KEEP THE FOG AT BAY AT KMKE.
ONCE THAT MIXES OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC