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000
FXUS63 KMKX 232132
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
332 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

500 MB SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE AT 21Z.
CURRENT RADAR LOOPS SHOW A LINEAR STRIPE OF REFLECTIVITY AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IS PROHIBITING ANY PRECIPITATION
FROM REACHING THE GROUND. THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUD
COVER. THERE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF PARTIAL
CLEARING WHICH IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH CENTRAL WI. THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING MOVING THROUGH S WI THIS
EVENING BETWEEN 00-06Z UNTIL ANOTHER STRATUS DECK MOVES IN DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS
WILL BE QUIET SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL AN ADDITIONAL 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MOST MODELS TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM...AND THE
ASSOCIATED QPF MAX...AS THE UPPER JET MAX DRIVING THE DEEPENING 500
MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES WELL WEST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE 12Z
NAM HOLDING STEADY WITH A TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE OTHERS...
THROUGH A BIT FASTER...DUE TO THE JET MAX NOT DIVING QUITE AS FAR
SOUTH AS SOON...LEAVING THE LEFT EXIT REGION FARTHER TO THE
NORTHEAST.

THE 12 GFS TAKES THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH WESTERN IOWA TO NEAR ST
LOUIS BY 18Z SUNDAY VERSUS THE 06Z RUN THAT TOOK THE LOW THROUGH
EASTERN IOWA TO THE PONTIAC/BLOOMINGTON AREA BY 18Z...WHICH IS CLOSE
TO THE TRACK OF THE 12Z NAM. THE 12Z CANADIAN GEM AND ECMWF ARE JUST
A BIT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE 12Z GFS TRACK.

MOST MODELS TAKE PCPN OUT OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE NAM A
BIT SLOWER LINGERING PCPN INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME CONCERN FOR
LAKE ENHANCEMENT/LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND
THE LOW.

GOING WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION STILL YIELDS WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCH
AMOUNTS...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS RUNNING FROM WEST CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE CWA TO THE SE. LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MILWAUKEE
AND SOUTH WILL SEE BETWEEN 3 AND 3.5 INCHES WITH LAKE-EFFECT
POTENTIAL. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS
TO SUNDAY HIGHS AS CLOUDS HOLD TEMPS UP SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLER
AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE LOW LIMITS TEMP RISE ON SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

WILL KEEP CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE FAR SE SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE 1000-900 MB
CONVERGENCE LINGERS. OTHERWISE A QUIET PERIOD AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES
ACROSS STATE AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE IN BUSY NW FLOW PATTERN.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH EXTENT AND TIMING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PCPN
WITH NEXT WAVE...LEADING TO LOW CHANCE POPS ALL DAY MONDAY...RISING
TO CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW DROPS THROUGH THE REGION.
MODELS DIFFER TO TRACK OF LOW...WITH THE NAM TRACKING THE LOW FROM
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TO MUSKEGON BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TUESDAY. THIS
COULD GREATLY REDUCE QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM CONSENSUS...WHICH IS
GENERALLY ONLY BETWEEN 0.5 INCH AND 1 INCH.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE

STILL ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
TUESDAY MORNING WITH SHEARED VORT CHANNEL SHIFTING TO THE EAST
AROUND MID-DAY TUESDAY. QUIET AND RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES
UNTIL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGS
SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE WITH YET ANOTHER WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING DUE TO SLIGHT
CLEARING IN S WI...WITH CIGS ABOVE 3000 FT. CLOUD COVER WILL RETURN
LATER TONIGHT AS AN ADDITIONAL STRATUS DECK MOVES IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. P6SM VSBYS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY UNTIL 03Z THIS EVENING AS BLUSTERY
WEST WINDS CONTINUE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BELOW
CRITERIA BEFORE 03Z.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...JTS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...REM