Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 191709 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1209 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...

THERE WAS A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL WI THIS MORNING...BUT THAT IS DONE NOW. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN WI LATE THIS MORNING. WITH ANOTHER VORT MAX
SLIDING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI MIDDAY TODAY...I EXPECT THE MOSTLY
CLOUDY TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERDOING THE SKY COVER COMPARED TO OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS UPSTREAM...SO WILL UPDATE WITH HIGHER COVERAGE.

SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER MILWAUKEE AT NOON ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST. THE
CLOUDS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOK THICKER UP NORTH THAN WHAT WILL BE
ROLLING ACROSS SOUTHERN WI...SO WILL CONTINUE LOWER POPS IN FAR
SOUTHERN WI AND AROUND 30 PERCENT POPS FOR THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA.

FORECAST TEMPS TODAY LOOK LIKE THEY WILL STILL HOLD DESPITE THE
HIGHER CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

CLOUD COVER IS HIGHER TODAY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. 18Z TAFS HAVE
MORE BROKEN CIGS RATHER THAN SCATTERED. IN ADDITION...IT IS TAKING
LONGER FOR THE CIGS TO RISE TO VFR LEVELS...BUT THEY WILL EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MABYE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS
AFTERNOON IS STILL THERE...BUT VERY LOW. THAT SAID...SHOWERS
DEVELOPED OVER MILWAUKEE AT NOON ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURFACE
WIND SHIFT/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

MO CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TNT WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS
EXPECTED MAINLY AFTER 05Z.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DDV



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