Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 311459 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
959 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.UPDATE...

A FEW CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. FORECAST HIGHS LOOK TO
BE ON TRACK...SO NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON FORECAST ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

MAY SEE MVFR CIGS BRUSH FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...

BLUSTERY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY DUE TO LINGERING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER EAST...PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WHICH WILL
ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH AND RESULTANT WAVES TO SUBSIDE LATER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.  MODIS IMAGERY FROM AROUND 09Z THIS MORNING
SHOWED MID-LAKE SFC TEMPS HOLDING AROUND 40F.

&&

.BEACHES...

HIGH SWIM RISK CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.  EXPECTED
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED AT LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES
CREATING DANGEROUS CURRENTS ALONG PIERS AND BREAKWALLS.  DRIVING
FORCE BEHIND DANGEROUS SWIM CONDITIONS IS GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS...UP
TO 30 MPH.  THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.  ONSHORE FLOW TO
CONTINUE ON MONDAY...BUT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE STRONG JET ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WAS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST
WITH A WEAK 500/250 MB TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN
TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL BRING WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
TONIGHT. NOT MUCH REFLECTION OF THE TROUGH EVEN AT 700 MB AS 700
MB RH ID DRY. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECT SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS. 850 MB RH
IS ALSO DRY. THERE IS SOME HIGHER RH AT 925 MB THIS MORNING IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST THAT DRYS MID TO LATE MORNING.

WITH SUNNY SKIES TEMPERATURES WILL RISE...BUT AN INVERSION AROUND
5 THSD FT WILL LIMIT THE MIXING. EVEN SO EXPECT DEW POINTS TO
LOWER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND STAY RATHER LOW EAST. EVEN
WITH THE SOMEWHAT SHALLOW MIXING...IT IS ENOUGH TO BRING GUSTS TO
20 TO 25 MPH WEST AREAS AND 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS EAST INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD.
THEY HAVE A 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE DURING THIS TIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS FROM MODELS INDICATE HIGHS REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 60S WELL INLAND ON MONDAY...AND THE LOWER TO MID 70S
TUESDAY. ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL TEMPERATURES
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH MAIN FEATURES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THEY SHIFT THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST DURING THIS TIME. THE
INFLUENCE OF THE HIGHS WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE...AND RESULT IN
QUIET WEATHER WEDNESDAY.

KEPT LOWER END POPS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES MAINLY THURSDAY...AS
500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM APPROACHES THE AREA. HOWEVER...GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MEAGER WITH DEEP MOISTURE...SO COULD SEE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY END UP DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM DURING THIS TIME...WITH COOLER READINGS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

MODELS SHOWING SOME MORE DIFFERENCES THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.
THEY DO BRING A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTHWEST
WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS...AND HAS LESS QPF THAN THE GFS.

CONTINUED WITH THE CONSENSUS MODEL POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
PERIOD. DRY EASTERLY FLOW HELPING TO REDUCE CHANCES FOR QPF FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODEL RUNS. GFS
ALSO SHOWING LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE ECMWF WEST OF
THAT AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...COOLER
NEAR THE LAKE WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND KENOSHA INTO MID MORNING. OTHERWISE
VFR. AN INVERSION AROUND 5 THSD FT WILL LIMIT THE AFTERNOON
MIXING. EVEN WITH THE SOMEWHAT SHALLOW MIXING...IT IS ENOUGH TO
BRING GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS WEST AREAS AND 20 TO 25 KNOT GUSTS
EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...

WILL HAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT SUNDAY AREAS
NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND TIL 9 PM FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH. FEW WIND
GUSTS STILL REACHING GALE CRITERIA SOUTH OF MILWAUKEE BUT THESE
SHOULD DROP BELOW GALE SHORTLY. THE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS DUE TO
LOW PRESSURE NEAR INDIANAPOLIS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.

BEACHES...

WILL EXTEND THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR A HIGH SWIM RISK UNTIL
6 PM THIS AFTERNOON NORTH AREAS...AND 9 PM THIS EVENING SOUTH
AREAS. WAVES NOT EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET UNTIL THEN.
DANGEROUS...LIFE THREATENING SWIM CONDITIONS WILL THUS CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...LAKE MICHIGAN
SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50...CREATING A
HYPOTHERMIA RISK.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ066-
     071-072.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052-
     060.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV/MBK
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...HENTZ
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD



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