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000
FXUS63 KMKX 281659 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1059 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...

MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS SEEM
REASONABLE...THOUGH MAY BE A BIT HIGH IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES.

VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA
MAINLY LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND A MODEST 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM PUSHES INTO THE
AREA. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...WITH THE STRONGER UPWARD MOTION REMAINING TO
THE SOUTH.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW LOW TO MID LEVEL SATURATION IN
FAIRLY DEEP DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE FROM AROUND 03Z TO 08Z
SUNDAY. WILL BE ADJUSTING POPS UPWARD IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT...A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO AT WORST. MAY SEE FLURRIES WITH
APPROACHING STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOR LATER ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO MID EVENING ACROSS
TAF SITES. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED...AS MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT SNOW AFFECT KENOSHA AND PERHAPS
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES FROM ABOUT 03Z TO 08Z SUNDAY. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY. MVFR VISIBILITIES
ARE POSSIBLE AT KENOSHA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT...A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO AT WORST. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
LATER TONIGHT WILL INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

THE SFC RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD TODAY WITH ANOTHER DAY OF
FULL SUNSHINE UNTIL LATE. MOS GUIDANCE AND OTHER TEMP GUIDANCE LOOKS
REASONABLE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. FOR TNT...A
120 KT ZONAL JET STREAM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL USA WITH THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD AND BEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND WAA REMAINING
TO THE SOUTH OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IL AND IN. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NRN NM DOES MOVE ACROSS FAR NRN IL THIS EVE.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE WEAK LIFT IS AHEAD OF THE FULL SATURATION OF
THE SOUNDING WITH LITTLE TO NO LIFT AND DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS
OCCURRING NOT LONG AFTER THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE. THUS ONLY 20-40
POPS OVER THE SRN AND ERN CWA. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE
AT LEAST VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WITH BEST CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW IN FAR SE WI. DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND WEAK WAA ON SLY
WINDS...TEMPS WILL STAY RELATIVELY MILD TNT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SOUTH FOR THE SUNDAY SYSTEM... AND ALL
MODELS NOW KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM ALIGNED
WITH THE 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER JET
STREAK... WHICH IS SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. A DUSTING OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN WI.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS WI SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES... COOL TEMPS AND QUIET WEATHER.

LONG TERM...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES
CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN WI. SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN WI
ON TUESDAY AS WELL.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE MODELS IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGER JET
STREAK. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS KEEP THE JET STREAK OVER IOWA
WITH THE EXIT REGION INFLUENCING THE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN WI.
THE GFS HAS THE JET STREAK OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AT 18Z TUESDAY... WITH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION CREATING A STRONGER SURFACE LOW THAN THE
OTHER MODELS. THE SURFACE LOW... WHATEVER THE STRENGTH... WILL TRACK
ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHEAST WI ON TUE.

WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL SLIDE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WI
MONDAY NIGHT.. BUT THE MAJORITY OF PRECIP WILL FALL TUE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN ITS STRONGER SURFACE SOLUTION... THE GFS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE 850MB ZERO DEGREE LINE MAKING IT INTO SOUTHERN
WI WHILE THE ECMWF... CANADIAN AND 06Z NAM KEEP IT ALONG THE WI/IL
BORDER. SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S TUE
AFTERNOON WITH THE MILD AIR MASS IN EARLY MARCH... SO A PERIOD OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN AT LEAST FAR SOUTHEAST WI. SOME MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN OR SLEET IS ALSO POSSIBLE THERE TUE MORNING.

CONFIDENCE ON THE DETAILS IS LOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE
WILL SEE SOME PRECIP... SO I INCREASED THE POPS TO CATEGORICAL.
EXPECT THINGS TO CHANGE... BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE USING A CONSENSUS OF MODEL
QPF AND SNOW RATIOS FOR THE AREA WITH ALL SNOW... GENERALLY NORTH OF
A MADISON TO MILWAUKEE LINE.

WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
THE SNOW ENDS. TEMPS SHOULD DIVE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
AGAIN WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY ON
THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER MILDER AIR BACK INTO WI ON
FRIDAY.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

MO CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF TODAY.
CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS AND VERY LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOPING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE NRN
FRINGES OF AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW TO AFFECT SRN WI. MVFR VSBYS MAY
OCCUR BRIEFLY FROM KMSN EWD TO KUES AND KMKE. KENW WILL LIKELY
SEE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF MVFR VSBYS. STRATUS CLOUDS AT MVFR
CATEGORY AND FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE INTO SUN AM.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MRC