Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 260841
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
341 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY MOVING EWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI EARLY
THIS AM. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO TRIGGER AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS
OR TSTORMS THROUGH THE MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING
TOWARD THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY WILL THEN SWING NWD THROUGH SRN WI
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK ACROSS ERN IA
INTO C WI BY 00Z WED. THE LEADING EDGE OF PVA AND THE NOSE OF A
DEVELOPING SLY LLJ WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDDLE TO LATE
MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON. PWS WILL INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES
DURING THIS TIME WITH TALL AND SKINNY CAPE ON THE FCST SOUNDINGS.
HIGH POPS ARE FORECAST FOR THE SHOWERS/TSTORMS TODAY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES AT TIMES. ONLY CHANCES OF PCPN TNT AS THE SYSTEM
MAINLY MOVES TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK COOL FROPA OCCURS. THE MLCAPE
TODAY WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW 500 J/KG GIVEN THE EARLY ARRIVAL OF
CLOUDS/PCPN AS WELL AS POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THUS THE SEVERE
TSTORM THREAT IS MINOR DESPITE MDT DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR
DEVELOPING.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING...DEPARTING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL
PROBABLY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE WAVE MOVES
THROUGH...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THE WAVE...LIKELY BRINGING DECREASING CLOUDS WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...TEMPS ALOFT WILL
RECOVER BEHIND THE WAVE TO AROUND 18-20C AT 925 MB BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB TOWARD 80 WEST...WITH
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS EAST WITH THE CLOUDS EXITING LATER.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR A SHORT TIME. ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY...THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN UNDER PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WINDS.

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS 850-700 MB WARM ADVECTION INCREASES ALONG WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE.

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

.SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

MODELS DIVERGE FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS KEEPS A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CLOSE TO THE FORECAST
AREA RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING PERSISTENT SHOWER CHANCES.
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS HAVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
QUICKER AND SHOVING THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH. THESE MODELS WOULD
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
CONSENSUS APPROACH TO THE FORECAST RESULTED IN SOME LINGERING POPS
RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH OBVIOUSLY NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIP CHANCES AT THIS POINT.

ONE THINGS THAT LOOKS A BIT MORE CERTAIN IN THE EXTENDED IS THAT
IT WILL TURN COOLER FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES THOUGH...IT IS YET TO BE DETERMINED HOW COOL.
HOPEFULLY THE FORECAST TRENDS AWAY FROM THE GFS...WHICH SUGGESTS
TEMPS STRUGGLE IN THE 40S UNDER AN ALL DAY RAIN EVENT SATURDAY.
KEEP YOUR FINGERS CROSSED THAT THE HIGH MOVES IN QUICKER PER THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/ AND MARINE...THESE SECTIONS WILL BE ADDED
SHORTLY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DDV



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