Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 171618 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1118 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.UPDATE...

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON. AREA OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS REMAINING FAIRLY THICK OVER
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH BREAKS BEING NOTED
ELSEWHERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOW LEVEL MIXING SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON.

AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF MADISON MAY SEE THESE CLOUDS LINGER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW LONG
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THIS AREA. ONCE PARTIAL SUNSHINE
OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON...HIGHS SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S INLAND. ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME
SCATTERED TO BROKEN AND VFR CATEGORY BY 21Z TO 23Z THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTINESS
AT MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA.

LIGHT WINDS AND A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED BY LATER
THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER BOUT OF
LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 03Z AND 15Z MONDAY AT ALL SITES.
CEILINGS SHOULD COME DOWN TO IFR CATEGORY...WITH SOME IFR/MVFR
CATEGORY FOG DURING THIS PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MID MORNING MONDAY...WITH MORE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING EAST TOWARD THE AREA SHOULD GRADUALLY BRING
MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF AT TAF SITES UNTIL AFTER
00Z TUESDAY. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE
EASTERN SITES...WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT MADISON.

&&

.MARINE...

NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET
DURING THIS TIME. WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH BY LATER TONIGHT.

MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WATER TONIGHT...THOUGH SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS WITH PRESENCE OF LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.BEACHES...

A MODERATE SWIM RISK WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS ALL OF THE BEACHES ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 1O TO 20 MPH...WITH WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET...MAY
LEAD TO DIFFICULT SWIMMING CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY FOR DANGEROUS CURRENTS DEVELOPING. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DIMINISH BY LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

-SHRA WL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND END EARLY THIS MRNG AS SFC FRONT
CONTINUES TO SAG SWD.  CURRENTLY FRONT OVER FAR SOUTHWEST CWA AS
WEAKENING PRESSURE RISES OVER CENTRAL WI SHOULD KEEP FRONT
PROGRESSING SWD.  AFFECTS OF FRONT WL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT RUNS
INTO SHORT WAVE RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER
CENTRAL IL.

MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND EXITING CDFNT CONTRIBUTING TO WIDESPREAD
STRATUS WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MRNG AND
SLOWLY ERODE IN THE AFTN...AS WEAK DIRTY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TNGT. SOME AREAS MAY VERY WELL
STAY M/CLDY MUCH OF THE DAY.  IN OTHER WORDS...A SWITCH FROM MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER TIME CONDITIONS SAT AFTN TO MORE FALL LIKE CONDITIONS
TODAY.

WHAT EVER CLEARING THAT TAKES PLACE TODAY WILL BE BRIEF AS MID-
CLOUDS SHOULD RETURN TONIGHT.  WEAKENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC OMEGA ALONG WITH LOWERING CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
ON 310 THETA SFC MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES OVER NORTH AND WEST LATER TNGT.  STRONGEST FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE WL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
SRN WI TONIGHT.  TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THESE CLOUDS
INCREASING OVERNIGHT TO ADD LATE NIGHT FOG AT THIS POINT.

LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

STEADY 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE ROLLING
ACROSS CENTRAL WI COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. ALL OF THE MODELS ARE NOW
SHOWING QPF SPREADING INTO SOUTHEAST WI BY 00Z TUE WITH THIS
FEATURE...WHICH IS FASTER THAN WHAT THEY WERE SHOWING YESTERDAY.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REACH LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
CLOSE OFF THERE AND STALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE VORTICITY
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET WILL LEAD TO A DECENT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN WI MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES. WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND FAIRLY WEAK SHEAR...THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THIS SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM SHOULD
BRING SOME MUCH-NEEDED RAIN TO SOUTHERN WI. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED.

LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WRAP-AROUND REGION OVER EAST
CENTRAL WI AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS
ARE DRY ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN WI THOUGH.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

AN 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN WI THU AND FRIDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE
REGARDING THIS MOVEMENT OF THAT ZONE. THE LOCATION OF IT WILL IMPACT
TEMPERATURES. EITHER WAY...THIS FRONT WILL BE A TRIGGER FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN WI AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
SHOULD BE A FAIRLY WARM AND HUMID PERIOD.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

MVFR CIGS AND OCCASIONAL IFR WL GRADUALLY ERODE LATE THIS
MRNG INTO THE AFTN AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST.  STRATUS AND LOW LEVEL MIXING SHOULD PREVENT FOG EARLY
THIS MRNG.  -SHRA WL END EARLY THIS MRNG WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MOST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.  MAY BE A FEW --SHRA IN THE KMSN AREA
LATE TNGT.  TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CLOUDS TONIGHT AT THIS
POINT TO GET EXCITED ABOUT THE FOG POTENTIAL.  WL INTRODUCE LIGHT
FOG FOR LATER TNGT FOR NOW.

MARINE...

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN VEER TO
THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY.  WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.  SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE
TO EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY.  DRIER AIR FLOWING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FOG OR HAZE.

BEACHES...

A MODERATE SWIM RISK WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AT LAKE
MICHIGAN BEACHES FROM SHEBOYGAN TO KENOSHA DUE TO NORTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUING. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE HIGHER WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET AND
DIFFICULT SWIMMING CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
DANGEROUS CURRENTS.  WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MRC


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