Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 210851
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
351 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...THIS SECTION WILL BE ADDED SHORTLY.

.FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WARM AND WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM FRIDAY INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY...AS MODELS ARE UNDECIDED WITH THE LOCATION
OF THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. KEPT SOME CHANCE POPS GOING PER
THE THE FARTHER NORTH AND WETTER MODELS.

WENT WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MODELS GENERALLY ARE BUILDING UPPER RIDGING INTO THE AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY. AFTER THAT...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN FLATTEN OUT
THE FLOW...WITH THE GFS HANGING ONTO THE RIDGE AND WARMER AIR A
BIT LONGER. BY WEDNESDAY THOUGH...THE GFS HAS A STRONG TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF BUILDING RIDGING BACK IN. QUITE A
SPREAD IN MODEL TEMPS BY MID-WEEK AS A RESULT. EVEN GIVEN THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES...A CONSENSUS APPROACH STILL SUPPORTS SOME POPS
EACH DAY.

IT LOOKS PRETTY WARM THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...POSSIBLY INTO
MONDAY. COULD SEE SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO AROUND 100 AWAY
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...MAINLY FRIDAY AND SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE TEMPS
COOL A TAD BY TUE/WED...THOUGH POSSIBLY STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...THIS SECTION WILL BE ADDED SHORTLY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION...GEHRING
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV



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