Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KMKX 260842
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
342 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED JUST BEHIND SURFACE
TROUGH IN REGION OF SURFACE TO 850MB FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE BACK
EDGE OF THE 925MB-850MB THERMAL/MOISTURE RIDGE. SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT
PROVIDED BY DIFFERENTIAL CVA FROM WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT IS LIFTING
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST OVER ERN U.P. OF MICHIGAN.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FORCING WILL SLIDE INTO NRN
ILLINOIS BY MID-MORNING. MODELS ALSO TAKE LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVER WEST CENTRAL IOWA DUE EAST ALONG RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...WITH CORFIDI VECTORS THEN INDICATING A TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN IL. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST AND SLIGHTS TO THE NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY
AND TREND SOUTH AND DOWNWARD AS SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL
FORCING.

PCPN ENDS BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND SURFACE
FRONT. MODELS SLOWER WITH RETURN FLOW...WITH BETTER WAA AND 850 MB
CONVERGENCE REMAINING SW OF AREA THROUGH 12Z WED. WILL KEEP FORECAST
AREA DRY THROUGH 06Z AND SLOWLY BRING IN LOW POPS TO THE SW AND FAR
SOUTHERN CWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
AXIS OF SHORTWAVE CRUISING TO OUR NORTHEAST AFFECTS THE AREA
EARLY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKING HOLD. SURFACE SETS UP NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR/U.P. ANY PRECIP EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE LOW LEVEL
FORCING IN SW WI WITH WEAK TROUGHING AND SOME HINTS OF WEAK WAA.
WILL LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WITH SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND MID LEVEL FLOW
FLATTENING...SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE INCREASE. MOISTURE
FLUX AND WAA RETURNS WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKING SHAPE.
PRETTY DECENT SLUG OF WAA FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WITH 850 LLJ
RAMPING UP. SEEING SOME SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING OR EXCEEDING 2
INCHES...ELEVATED CAPE AOA 2000 J/KG AND LOW CORFIDI/MBE VECTORS
UNDER 10 KNOTS. WILL BEEF UP HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE HWO FOR
NOW. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO MORE
TSRA DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. THE ECMWF PUSHES THE
BOUNDARY EAST SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER AND LINGERS
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INTO SUNDAY. THE GEM IS ACTUALLY THE
QUICKEST SOLUTION WHICH SHOWS MUCH OF SATURDAY AND ALL OF SUNDAY
DRY.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
ECMWF SHOWING A DRY PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHILE
THE GFS IS QUICKER ON BRINGING NEXT WAVE INTO AREA WITH MORE TSRA
FOR MONDAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE SAME SYSTEM IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE ALLBLEND POPS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...COMING SOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.