Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 280221
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
921 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.UPDATE...

a 250 mb jet max will be lifting north just west of the
Mississippi River Valley. 700 mb upward motion increases and
models bring a band of showers and scattered thunderstorms across
the forecast area late tonight, especially over south central
Wisconsin.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

Bulk of latest guidance is suggesting mvfr/ifr low ceilings will
develop late tonight...improving tomorrow morning as daytime
mixing kicks in. Showers and a chance of thunderstorms are
expected to move across southern Wisconsin late tonight,
increasing the likelihood of the lower ceilings.

.MARINE...

Southerly winds will keep areas of fog over the nearshore waters at
times through Saturday. The best chance for dense fog will be north
of Milwaukee through Sat morning. A dense fog advisory remains in
effect for these marine zones.

Winds tomorrow may get a little gusty, depending on the wind
direction. If winds are more southwesterly, mixing should be better
and a few gusts to 25 knots will be possible. Overall though,
conditions seem too borderline for a Small Craft Advisory.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 331 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

A couple weak waves in the flow will bring rounds of showers/storms
to southern Wisconsin this afternoon into tonight. The low level jet
will continue to move northward into the area this
evening/overnight, keeping the moist flow into the forecast area.
Precipitable water values are expected to remain above 1.50 inches
through tonight.

Moisture will decrease just a little Saturday with the jet focused a
bit more eastward. Kept chance pops going, as models hinting at
another crinkle in the flow that might kick off a few storms given
the moisture/instability in place. Should be enough sunshine poking
through at times for highs around 80 most places.

SATURDAY NIGHT...Forecast confidence is medium.

A mid level short wave will be lifting northeast into the area
overnight. An associated band of showers and storms should be
moving into the southwest part of the forecast area by evening,
but support will wane during the evening as we diurnally lose the
thermal contribution, so it`s questionable how much will survive
by the time it gets to the eastern forecast area. Will carry
likely pops west of Madison and chance pops elsewhere.

SUNDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.

The mid level short wave will continue to track slowly across the
area on Sunday, continuing the chance of showers and storms. Given
all the clouds and limited thermal profile, there isn`t much in
the way of CAPE or shear to bring anything too strong. So, the
tame thunderstorm activity should continue.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MEMORIAL DAY...Forecast confidence is medium.

We dry out for Sunday night and quite possibly through Monday,
Memorial Day, as well. But, we do see moisture and instability
return Monday afternoon and it could help support some scattered
showers or storms. The NAM is dry Monday, while the ECMWF and the
GFS show some light QPF pushing in. Looks like the best chance for
any rain would likely hold off until about 3 pm on Monday.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.

We`ll find ourselves back into a similar pattern as this past
week. A mid level trough will slowly drop into the central plains,
with ridging out east. We`ll be in the pesky southwest steering
flow again, susceptible to pieces of energy rotating north across
the area ahead of the main short wave. The models are, of course,
in disagreement on timing of best chances of rain next week. In
this type of pattern it is way to early for that, so for now the
forecast will contain lots of rain chances and expect better
resolution as we get closer. Still warm and at times humid. Looks
like summer is here to stay.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

Bulk of latest guidance is suggesting low ceilings will develop this
evening into tonight...improving tomorrow morning as daytime mixing
kicks in. Not seeing a ton of support for this in upstream obs...but
hard to completely ignore model soundings...so kept a period of
lower ceiling in the TAFs.

Showers and storms will continue moving in from the south this
afternoon, with rounds of showers/storms likely into the evening and
overnight. A chance for showers and storms will linger through the
day Saturday, though activity will likely be more isolated/scattered.

MARINE...

Southerly winds will keep areas of fog over the nearshore waters at
times through Saturday. The best chance for dense fog will be north
of Milwaukee through Sat morning. A dense fog advisory remains in
effect for these marine zones.

Winds tomorrow may get a little gusty, depending on the wind
direction. If winds are more southwesterly, mixing should be better
and a few gusts to 25 knots will be possible. Overall though,
conditions seem too borderline for a Small Craft Advisory.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 1 PM CDT Saturday for LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hentz
TONIGHT/Saturday AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV Saturday
NIGHT THROUGH Friday...Davis



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