Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
FXUS63 KMKX 160925
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
325 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017
TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast confidence is high.
Current cloud cover is at 5-8 kft via warm advection and
frontogenesis. This area of clouds will move east this morning, but
be replaced by high cloud cover via a vorticity maximum in nwly flow
aloft. Still some periods of partly sunny skies are possible,
especially west of Madison. Sely winds will develop for the
afternoon as the high moves east and a warm front develops across IA
and IL. Low to mid level warm advection will continue with temps
warming into the middle 30s over east central WI and lower to middle
40s over sw WI. The warm front will slowly approach tonight with
temps only dropping into the upper 20s to lower 30s.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.
Amplified upper ridging prevails aloft for the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes. A northern stream shortwave will progress east along
the International Border, with surface low pressure sliding east
through southern Canada. The low will drag a weak cold front
southeast through southern Wisconsin Saturday morning.
Friday looks quite mild with southerly flow and rising thicknesses.
The warmest air will spread in from the southwest, so look for a
temperature gradient ranging from the mid to upper 50s in the
southwest to the mid 40s in the northeast for highs. Not really
seeing any moisture on area forecast soundings, but model RH progs
suggest we could see some high clouds from time to time.
Initially southwest winds will veer west to northwest on Saturday
following the passage of a weak cold front. No impacts are
expected with the front, other than the wind shift. Mild readings
will continue area-wide, with near record high temperatures mostly
in the 50s.
Sunday will be another mild day, with near record high temperatures
once again possible. Southerly winds will allow enough onshore
component, however, to keep temperatures a bit cooler along the
Lakeshore. Mid and high level clouds will increase towards evening
as a warm front lifts northeast through the area.
.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.
Ridging aloft is shunted east of our area on Monday, in response to
upper troughing progressing from the Intermountain West/northern
Rockies into the Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes. The upper wave
will escort a filling surface low as it lifts northeast from the
northern Great Plains into central SK/MB. A northeast to southwest
oriented cold front attendant to the surface low should sweep
through our area on Tuesday, bringing a chance for rain showers.
Model details are a bit fuzzier into Wednesday, but above normal
temperatures should continue. Monday looks to be the mildest day,
with the ECMWF suggesting lower 60s are possible in our
southwest. EKDMOS percentiles also favor 60s in our south. As with
Friday through Sunday, have raised high temperatures above the
consensus model guidance for Monday.
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR conditions today and tonight. The 5-8 kft
cloud cover will decrease from west to east through the morning with
sct-bkn high clouds for the afternoon. Few-sct high clouds for
.MARINE...Sely winds of 10-15 kts will develop this afternoon and
continue into tonight as high pressure moves east of Lake MI. Waves
of 1-3 feet expected. Otherwise relatively light winds and low wave
heights for Fri and the weekend.
Record highs for Milwaukee and Madison are as follows...
LOCATION FRI/17TH SAT/18TH SUN/19TH
Milwaukee 55 (1981) 57 (1933) 59 (1981)
Madison 61 (1981) 57 (1981) 60 (1981)
The average highs during this period are 33 in Milwaukee and 32 in
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Gehring
Friday THROUGH Wednesday AND CLIMATE...SPM