Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000
FXUS63 KMKX 290259
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
959 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AS THEY ARE TRENDING DOWN A
BIT FASTER THAN EARLIER FORECAST. LOWS DO LOOK ON TRACK. PATCHY
FOG AND SLIGHTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES BEGINNING TO FORM NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...WITH PATCHY FOG OVER ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH AREAS
OF FOG STILL EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN CWA. WILL SEE SOME LOCALLY
DENSE FOG...BUT LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD NOR
LAST LONG ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

PATCHY FOG BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND IN THE
USUAL LOW-LYING RURAL LOCATIONS OVER SE WI. MVFR/SPOTTY IFR FOG
EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT. FOG DISSIPATES BY MID-MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. STILL LOOKING AT A COLD FRONT TO
SWING WEST WINDS IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE QUICKLY TO THE NORTH AS
THE FRONT REACHES KMSN...KUES AND KMKE BETWEEN 19Z AND 20Z...AND
KENW AROUND 21Z. EARLIER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 21Z SREF CIG
HEIGHT PROBABILITY FORECASTS INDICATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR MVFR
STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LATEST NAM MOS GUIDANCE BRINGING
CIGS DOWN BELOW 1K FT.

&&

.MARINE...

ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE THROUGH THE NEARSHORE ZONES
MONDAY AFTERNOON. STARTING THE ADVISORY AT 18Z FOR THE NORTHERN 2
ZONES...AND AT 21Z FOR THE SOUTH. WILL SEE HIGH WAVES BUILDING TO
3 TO 6 FEET BY EARLY EVENING...AND LASTING AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...EVEN THOUGH WINDS TURN NORTHEAST AND DIMINISH BELOW
CRITERIA. NEXT SHIFT MAY NEED TO EXTEND END TIME IF FULL 00Z DATA
SET INDICATES ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS AT OR ABOVE
CRITERIA LATER THAN 12Z TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. AGAIN...EXPECT THE
USUAL FAVORED AREAS TO SEE SOME DENSE...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN
THE HWO.

MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF EARLY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL.
COLD FRONT REMAINS TO OUR NORTH EARLY ON...BUT MODELS TREND THIS
FRONT INTO THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. THE WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
COOLER LAKE AIR REPLACING THE WARMER PRE-FRONTAL TEMPS. 500 MILLIBAR
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST WITH BEST COMBO OF LOWER LEVEL FORCING
AND UPPER DYNAMICS OVERLAPPING ACROSS THE NE CWA SO WILL HAVE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS...PRETTY MUCH IN LINE WITH GOING FCST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

EXPECT STRATUS TO ACCOMPANY SURGE OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND PASSING BACKDOOR COLDFRONT MONDAY EVENING.  ENOUGH LINGERING
WEAK FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE TO CONTINUE SMALL POPS FOR -SHRA IN
THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP
IN COLD AIR SURGE.  STRATUS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO TUE MRNG DUE TO
MOIST NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW.  CLOUDS
MAY PERSIST IN SOME AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY BUT FOR NOW WL REMAIN
OPTIMISTIC FOR GRADUAL CLEARING MOST AREAS.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED.  QUIET AND COOL
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TUE NIGHT.  AXIS OF LOW LEVEL JET
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL USHER DEEPER PWAT
OVER 1 INCH INTO SRN WI ON WED.  FORCING ASSOCD WITH THETA-E
ADVECTION AND FIRST PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING NORTHEAST IN INCREASING
SLY WINDS MAY BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTORMS TO MOSTLY SOUTH
CENTRAL WI ON WED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

ON TRACK FOR MORE UNSETTLED AND COLDER WEATHER TO SETTLE INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS PERIOD.  MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON SHORT WAVE RIDGING EXITING TO THE EAST TUE NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVES EXPECTED TO PHASE INTO
BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN
TRACK EWD INTO WESTERN GTLAKES/MIDWEST ON THURSDAY.  TROUGH WILL BE
NUDGED EWD BY STRONG PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
ROCKIES INTO NRN PLAINS ON THU.  COLUMN PRECIP WATER INCREASES TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES WED NIGHT AS WEAK LOW LEVEL JET AXIS MOVES ACROSS
WI.  WEAKER FORCING AND LACK OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WED NGT SO WL
TRIM BACK CHC OF T.

INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ADVANCES
INTO WI ON THU.  WL CONTINUE LIKELY WORDING THU AS MOISTURE WL BE IN
PLACE AS BROAD SYNOPTIC LIFT AFFECTS WI.  MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
DIVERGES LATER THU AND FRI AS DISAGREEMENT EXISTS CONCERNING TIMING
AND FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF LONG WAVE TROF OVER CENTRAL CONUS INTO
GTLAKES REGION.  VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO BACKSIDE
OF AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE AFFECTS REGION THU NGT AND FRI.  ECMWF
TRENDING TOWARD THIS WAVE REMAINING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OPEN AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  GFS AND GEM SLOWER WHILE WITH EWD
MOVEMENT.  BOTH 00Z AND 06Z GFS RUNS SHOWED RAPID CYCLOGENESIS AND
CLOSED LOW FORMING ON BAROCLINIC ZONE THU NGT AND AFFECTING WI...BUT
12Z GFS WEAKER AND TRENDING FARTHER EAST TOWARD ECMWF/GEM CAMP.

GEM AND ECMWF FARTHER TO THE EAST BUT DO SHOW LOW LEVEL
TROF/POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER OH VLY CENTRAL GTLAKES ON FRI.
EITHER WAY...COLDER AIR WILL BE SETTLING INTO SRN WI BY FRI.  WEAK
NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEM AND ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BRING SOME -RA TO THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.  TIMING OF CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM WOULD
AFFECT FROST CHANCES SAT NGT.

CPC 6-10 DAY 500MB OUTLOOK VALID OCT3-7 SHOWS BROADSCALE TROFING
OVER UPPER MIDWEST WITH HEIGHTS AROUND 60M BELOW NORMAL.  HENCE
EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...BROAD CIRCULATION SEEING ON WATER VAPOR
SHIFTING EAST FROM ERN IA. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
WITH A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. VFR CONDITIONS
INTO THIS EVENING. THEN LIKELY ANOTHER REPEAT OF THE FOG ONCE AGAIN
WHERE PATCHY VSBYS DROP TO LIFR. SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH
SRN WI MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A POST FRONTAL WIND SHIFT TO THE NE.
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
FROM SHORTWAVE WARRANT THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS EVEN WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE. POTENTIAL FOR POST FRONTAL STRATUS FIELD WITH COLD
ADVECTION REGIME LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR A TIME AS WINDS TURN NE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT AND BECOME GUSTY. WAVES WILL BUILD WITH THE FAVORABLE ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MBK



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