Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 182054

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
254 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday...high confidence forecast
Models all locked in and tightly packed with the forecast. Dry
with record or near record warmth across the region. Deep trough
across western coast of the United States in conjunction with
upper level low moving across TN Valley today is helping to pump
warm air into the region. Upper level low to our south moves into
the Carolina coastal region and becomes an non- factor for us but
the deep trough out west slowly pushes inland and continues the
deep warm southerly flow as ridging becomes very pronounced over
the central US. Some records may fall again Sunday...better
chances for lake breeze to set up tomorrow...make make the
lakefront areas a few degrees cooler than today or yesterday.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday...high confidence forecast

Models are tightly packed with their solutions through Friday
morning...only start to show some divergence for next Friday
afternoon/evening into the weekend with the system forecast to
impact the region at the end of the week...overall this leads to a
high confidence in the forecast. Highly amplified ridge moves east
across the Great Lakes on Monday with above normal temps...a
sharp trough previously mentioned out west is getting pinched off
as it moves east across the plains into the MS River Valley.
Showers will be pretty much a sure thing Monday night into early
Tuesday as the trough and weakening cold front moves through the
region. Another trough digs across the western US Tuesday keeping
the flatten ridge across the eastern US and the very warm temps
continue. Dry again on Tuesday and Wednesday. A Shortwave trough
moves to our north on Wednesday night dragging a cold front
through the region Thursday with cooler but above normal temps. A
larger system looks to develop with the deep western trough
Wednesday night into Thursday across the southern Rockies and
moves it into the region by Friday afternoon. Rain chances
developing for Thursday ahead of the system with warmer air still
in place...most of the models show us staying in the warm sector
until Friday afternoon...most likely solution at this time with a
transition to snow likely Friday evening with all precip wrapping
up early Saturday morning. Not liking the look of the GFS on the
12z run...the placement of the sfc low seems a bit odd and moving
way too fast ahead of the main trough...Euro seems a bit more
sound of a solution...much time to get a better look at this.
Models tend not to handle ejecting deep trough from the west all
that well sometimes and can do so too fast. Much cooler air behind
the system...yet typical temps for late February. Drier and more
seasonal temps Saturday and next weekend.


Surface high builds in tonight with light wind regime setting up.
Airmass looks too dry to support fog overnight or at least
anything worthy of TAF inclusion at this point. The influence of
the high will still be in place Sunday as the axis shifts slightly
to the east. All in all airmass remains parched with VFR mostly
skc continuing this period.


Winds and waves are expected to remain below Small Craft
Advisory levels through Sunday. Winds and waves may reach Small
Craft Advisory levels Monday into Monday night, as a tight pressure
gradient develops with the next low pressure system moving through
the region.




TONIGHT THROUGH Saturday...ABS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.