Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KMKX 281601
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1101 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...BROAD CIRCULATION SEEING ON WATER VAPOR
SHIFTING EAST FROM ERN IA. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
WITH A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. VFR
CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING. THEN LIKELY ANOTHER REPEAT OF THE
FOG ONCE AGAIN WHERE PATCHY VSBYS DROP TO LIFR. SURFACE COLD FRONT
DROPS THROUGH SRN WI MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A POST FRONTAL WIND
SHIFT TO THE NE. LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FROM SHORTWAVE WARRANT THE CHANCE FOR A
FEW SHOWERS EVEN WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. POTENTIAL FOR POST
FRONTAL STRATUS FIELD WITH COLD ADVECTION REGIME LATER MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE WEAK UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST IOWA LOCATED BETWEEN A UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH ANOTHER OVER THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S.

NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST U.S.  THE WEAK
UPPER LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE
IN THE NORTHERN JET STREAM MOVES ACROSS MANITOBA CANADA.

HOWEVER THE MID LEVEL RH IS VERY DRY SO EXPECT MAINLY CIRRUS ALONG
WITH A FEW AFTERNOON FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS.

THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE AGAIN BE WITH EARLY MORNING FOG NOW...AND
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

ADDED MOISTURE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL
CAUSE THE FOG TO BE MORE PROBLEMATIC WITH A FEW AREAS DROPPING TO
BELOW 1/2 MILE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...PERSISTENCE FORECAST AGAIN SEEMS BEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY WITH THE TRAILING
SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING INTO THE NIGHT. EXPANDED
POPS A BIT WITH MODELS SHOWING PRETTY GOOD LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. MOISTURE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH...BUT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND ALSO LINGERING BACK WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW...BUT MODELS SEEM TO BE
TRENDING A BIT MORE UNSTABLE...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY A
RUMBLE OR TWO.

HIGH TEMPS MONDAY WILL REMAIN ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH TEMPS THEN CRASHING NORTH TO SOUTH LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE
FRONT/WAVE TUESDAY...WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
UNITED STATES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY LINGER FRIDAY AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH.

SHOULD SEE TEMPS A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
WED AND THU...WITH COOLER TEMPS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS WILL AGAIN BE WITH EARLY
MORNING FOG NOW...AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.  ADDED MOISTURE OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN WITH THE LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL CAUSE THE FOG TO BE MORE
PROBLEMATIC WITH SOME LIFR CONDITIONS.

OTHERWISE A MOSTLY VFR PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH HAVING STRONG
INFLUENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS. A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY.  EXPECT MAINLY CIRRUS ALONG WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS.

MARINE...AREAS OF FOG AGAIN OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.