Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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595
FXUS63 KMPX 102150
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
350 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MAIN FEATURE DRIVING THE WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM IS THE 1045MB
HIGH CENTERED BETWEEN THE BETWEEN THE ALASKA/CANADIAN BORDER ALONG
THE ARCTIC OCEAN AND THE NORTH POLE. THOUGH THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH
WILL NOT GET HERE UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...THERE IS A RIDGE AXIS THAT
EXTENDS FROM THAT HIGH CENTER...SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND INTO MN. THIS EXPLAINS IN LARGE PART WHY HIGHS TODAY
HAVE BEEN A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH A WEAK TROUGH
WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL MN BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SUBTLE WAA OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE EXPLAINS WHY HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

MAIN QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS WHAT HAPPENS WITH CLOUD COVER.
EXTENSIVE BAND OF CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM HUNTSVILLE ALABAMA ALL THE WAY
UP INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THESE CLOUDS ARE ON THE WESTERN
GRADIENT OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS CENTERED OVER/NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SAID GRADIENT DOES NOT LOOK TO
CHANGE/MOVE A WHOLE LOT. THE MAIN CHANGES WE WILL SEE IS A SLIGHT
WEAKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE WEST. THIS IS
WHY WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH CHANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE
CURRENT CLOUD PATTERN...WHICH WILL SETUP QUITE THE GRADIENT IN LOWS
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO IN WRN MN BENEATH THE CLOUDS...WHILE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
IN WRN WI WILL ALLOW FOR SOME NEGATIVE TEENS BELOW ZERO.

HAVE ALSO KEPT THE SHORT TERM DRY...THOUGH THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE DIVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH NW FLOW THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH...WITH THE H85
TEMP GRADIENT SHIFTING WEST A LITTLE OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SNOW WITH
THIS CLIPPER TO BE SW OF WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY...WITH ANY LIGHT
SNOW REMAIN SW OF THE MPX CWA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. BESIDE THE
FGEN SLIPPING WEST...SFC HIGH COMING IN BEHIND THIS WAVE IS EVEN
DRIER THAN WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY...WITH THAT DRY AIR ALSO HELPING
KEEP SNOW AT BAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD INCLUDE THE COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
A CLIPPER SYSTEM SUNDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKING TO NEXT WEEK...A CHANGE IN THE JET LOOKS TO
BRING A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT...AN IMPRESSIVE CORE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE CENTER
OVER SOUTHEASTERN HUDSON BAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR AN IMPRESSIVE -
40C.  THIS ARCTIC AIR WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS WEEKEND...GRAZING THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH 850 TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND -20C.  HOWEVER...A 1044MB SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH IN
FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR QUITE
A COLD NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT.  DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
OVERNIGHT LOW FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
THE POSSIBILITY OF CIRRUS WORKING IN OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD LIMIT OUR
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL A LITTLE BIT.  SO...STILL EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD MINUS TEENS AND A FEW MINUS TWENTIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
MN.

FOR SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA FROM NW TO
SE...BASICALLY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
QPF...BUT ENOUGH WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
EXIST THANKS TO LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MN. HELD ON TO THE NEAR 50 POPS OUT
WEST...MAINLY DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND QPF PLACEMENT WITH
THIS FEATURE.  AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST...BOTH THE GFS AND EC
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO DRY OUT A BIT...SO THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE FA MAY NOT SEE AS MUCH SNOWFALL AS THE WEST.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN WARMING AT THE SURFACE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH HIGHS
BOUNDING BACK INTO THE 20S.

ADDITIONAL WARMING IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL JET BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND PUSHES EAST.  BOTH THE
GFS/EC INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER RIPPLE WITH WAA LIFT NEXT
WEDNESDAY...AND ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW.  FURTHER HEATING IS EXPECTED
BEYOND THAT AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD AND THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH
THE BAND OF CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM MEMPHIS TN BACK NW TO
SASKATCHEWAN MORE OR LESS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THIS
PERIOD. ONLY CHANGE IS THAT THE -SN CURRENTLY FALLING IN SW/SC MN
WILL BE PULLING OUT OF MN BY 20Z. AS IT DOES SO...ANY MVFR CIGS
WILL RISE BACK TO VFR AND WILL REMAIN THERE THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. WITH A SFC HIGH WORKING ACROSS THE AREA THIS PERIOD...WE
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AS WELL.

KMSP...ONLY AREA OF LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TAF IS WITH WIND
DIRECTION...THOUGH THAT IS TO BE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER 5 KTS...SO THE VRB
DIRECTION WILL NOT BE A HUGE ISSUE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND NW AT 10G20 KT.
SAT...VFR. WIND E AT 5 KT.
SUN...MVFR/IFR WITH -SN LIKELY. WIND S 15 KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...MPG



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