Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 152114

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
414 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 414 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

A weak trough of low pressure is near the MN/ND border early this
afternoon. As this trough approaches there will be an increase in
mid level and high level cloudiness. Moisture and lift is limited
and confined to the northern areas. So those areas may see a brief
sprinkle. This weak wave will be out of MN by midnight and skies
will clear. Winds will stay in the 4-5 mph range overnight, just
enough to prevent widespread frost so will go with patchy frost.
After that it is mostly clear and dry with warmer temperatures to
start off the work week.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 414 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Dry weather and above normal temperatures continue to be the theme
for the long term period, at least through Friday night. After
that, a chance of rain returns to the forecast next weekend.

The northern jet stream will be in southern Canada the next few
days. A very weak wave will swing by Monday night with no
noticeable effects other than a wind shift associated with the
Pacific front. The next wave on Wednesday will be stronger, and
there will be some mid and high level moisture with it. But the
main feature will once again only be a wind shift.

The main change takes place late in the week as a deep trough
drops down the west coast and then approaches the upper midwest.
The trough should move onshore Thursday night, with the downstream
ridge over our area. Friday should be our warmest day with the
upper ridge beginning to shift east of MN/WI, and southwest upper
flow beginning. This means quite the increase in moisture, and
precipitable water increases on the gfs to 1.4 inches by
Saturday. The best lift does not arrive until Saturday morning and
that is when rain is in the forecast. The western trough does
looks to be progressive, likely moving over the central states
Saturday night and Sunday, so temperatures Sunday should be
cooler. Until then, temperatures will be well above normal. The
main factor that would discourage extremely warm temps late this
week is that surface winds should mostly be out of the south
rather than the west or southwest.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Last of the MVFR/IFR cigs will be gone by 18z issuance. A short
wave moving through nw MN will be our next feature of interest. As
the wave moves toward eastern MN it weakens slightly. There is
decent moisture with the wave over central and northern MN, but
moisture is lacking as well as upward motion over the southern
areas. As a result the only noticeable impact to aviation will be
a mid level cloud deck moving southeast with the wave. A few
sprinkles may be noted north of the KSTC and KAXN terminals. That
wave and associated clouds/moisture will be out of the area by
midnight and after that it is dry with a few bouts of scattered
clouds coupled with a return to southwest winds.


VFR conditions through the rest of the taf period. Might see a few
scattered clouds above 18k ft. Winds decrease and back to the
southwest overnight.


Tue-Fri...VFR. Winds generally from the S-SW 5-10 kts.




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