Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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981
FXUS63 KMPX 020445
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1045 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 250 PM CST Thu Dec 1 201

Short term concerns are any remaining threat for flurries
overnight and cloud trend into Friday afternoon.

Cyclonic flow remain over the region with abundant low level
moisture remaining. Areas of drizzle/flurries moving through the
southeast cwa this afternoon and a few flurries moving across
northern/central MN. This will be the trend much of the night with
overall trend to frozen ptype(flurries). May see some mist/light
freezing drizzle/ as well...but we expect it to be isolated and
will leave this out for now. Cold air advection remains weak...so we
will likely see temperatures remain in the 25 to 30 degree range for
lows tonight.

Some chance of breaks in the lower cloud cover developing into
Friday afternoon as models try to bring in some drier air from the
north/northwest. Will likely retain mostly cloudy trend for now.
Highs should warm into the lower 30s most areas...which still is a
little above normal.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

A few light rain or snow showers are possible on Sunday. There is a
chance for a larger storm system to bring snow across the Upper
Midwest Tuesday and Wednesday, but confidence is increasing the
storm will be southeast of the region in a warmer temperature regime
and not significantly impact the region. We may get a couple of
inches of snow, but not a snowstorm.

Early afternoon water vapor imagery together with Rap13 500mb
heights show a broad longwave trough over the western Conus.
Upstream there was a upper level trough on the poleward side of a
strong jet over the Gulf of Alaska. The west coast trough will
amplify and eventually a cut-off low will develop over the southwest
US. The northern stream will send a shortwave across the region
which will bring us clouds and light showers on Sunday.

On Monday and Monday night the northern stream will develop a
surface low across southern Canada, while the southern stream sends
a surface low up through the Ohio River Valley. Minnesota and
Wisconsin will be in between these two systems, so it does not
appear that heavy precipitation will affect MN/WI.

Given the strength of the polar jet, the cutoff low across the south
seems probable. Meanwhile the strong northern stream should prevent
the southern wave from trending to the west and bringing heavy snow
across MN/WI. For that reason feel that the chance of a large
cyclone for the early/middle of next week is unlikely at this time
given the current model trends. The coldest air of the season is
likely, however, and should see highs in the teens with lows near
zero late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1045 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Primarily MVFR ceilings through the period as a moist cyclonic low
level flows prevails. Ceilings 020-030 at issuance will dip to
012-018 overnight and then rise back to 020-030 on Friday. Wind
NW 6 to 12 knots.

KMSP...MVFR ceilings overnight and Friday morning. Some potential
for ceilings to rise above 030 Friday afternoon but confidence was
not high enough to indicate VFR with BKN028 OVC035 used. NW winds
6 to 12 knots.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
Sun...MVFR. Chance -SN. Wind SW 10 kts.
Mon...VFR. Wind S 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH



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