Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 071133
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
633 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

AMPLIFICATION OF THE BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS WILL OCCUR DURING THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED ON EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FEATURE
WILL DIP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME OF THE
ATTENDANT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO
WEST/CENTRAL MN THIS MORNING. SAID ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
SCATTERED IN COVERAGE...BUT THEN EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE ARRIVES.

WHILE THERE IS NOT A SURFACE COMPONENT TO THIS TROUGH IN OUR
AREA...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS STILL APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...PER PROGGED BULK SHEAR VALUES
OF 50-60 KTS...ML CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG...AND 700-500MB LAPSE RATES
OF 7 C/KM. LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS ALSO A CONCERN AS THE STORMS POTENTIALLY EVOLVE INTO
A COMPLEX.

BREEZY WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY SHOULD EVOKE SUFFICIENT
MIXING...WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS NOT STRAYING TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE
80 DEGREE MARK. CLOUDS GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT TONIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

OVERALL A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH EVERY TWO/THREE DAYS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED
AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. TIMING
ISSUES WILL REMAIN...ESPECIALLY LONGER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD YOU
GO. YESTERDAYS FIRST 90 DEGREES AT THE TWIN CITIES AIRPORT WILL
LIKELY BE THE LAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK AS THE MEAN PATTERN REMAINS
NW. THICKNESS VALUES HAVE TRENDED COOLER FOR TUE/WED OF THIS
WEEK...SO TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED. EVEN
WITH FULL SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPS MAY ONLY REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. TUESDAY WILL HAVE CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP DURING THE
DAYTIME. HOWEVER...TYPICALLY THESE INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA ARE ISOLD
WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
LOW WHICH WILL BE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WC/NW WI WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHC OF THESE SHRA/TSRA TUE AFTN. THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY BASED ON
THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS. ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL LIKELY SET UP FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEKEND. AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED...THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
HAVE UNCERTAINTIES ON TIMING. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE LONGER
RANGE MODELS INDICATED THAT THIS COOLER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE THIRD WEEK OF JULY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

SCATTERED SHRA/TS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN TAF SITES /KAXN-KRWF/
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVES OVERHEAD. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH MENTIONS THIS MORNING AND THEN
TRANSITIONED TO A COMBO OF TEMPOS AND PREVAILING SHRA/TS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVE. ASSOCIATED CIGS/VSBYS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE
MVFR. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT TONIGHT. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS
AT 7-13KT PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KMSP...
SHRA/TS CHANCES INCREASE NOTABLY AFTER 19Z...WITH THUNDER THEN POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNSET. THUNDER WILL NOT BE AFFECTING THE SITE THAT ENTIRE
TIME...BUT COULD BE NEARBY THROUGHOUT THAT TIME FRAME. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERALL...WITH MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS 280-290 DEGREES PREVAIL INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...THEN SHIFT TO AROUND 310 DEGREES BY 15Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. WIND NW 5 TO 15 KT.
THU...VFR. CHC TSRA AND MVFR OVERNIGHT. WIND S 10 TO 15 KT.
FRI...VFR. CHC OF TSRA AND MVFR. WIND S 10 TO 15 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...LS






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