Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 020830
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

BAGGY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL YIELD A DRY DAY...ALONG
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND NEAR NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BE
JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DIPPING TOWARD DEWPOINTS IN
THE 30S...AND GENERALLY EXPECT LOW/MID 40S TO BE COMMON...THUS
LIMITING THREAT FOR FROST. SPEAKING OF DEWPOINTS...ANTICIPATED
READINGS TO DECLINE LOWER THAN NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DEPICTS SIMILAR
TO WHAT HAPPENED SUNDAY. THIS WILL MEAN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL LOWER TOWARD 25 PERCENT. THANKFULLY WINDS WILL ONLY BE
AROUND 5KTS OR LESS...SO THAT WILL MINIMIZE THE THREAT FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK ACROSS THE REGION.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHERE SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE EAST OF I-35...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN WI. THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK WILL BE DRY...AND CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH UP
UNTO THIS POINT. MEANWHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A LOT OF MOVING PARTS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT WEST...WHICH WILL LEAD TO
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
HOWEVER LATE TUESDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN WI. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INSTABILITY SO SHOULD HAVE
ENOUGH DEPTH IN THE CUMULUS FIELD TO GET SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING.

ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE WILL BE
THE DOMINATE SYNOPTIC FEATURE...WHICH WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 FOR THURSDAY...AND APPROACHING 80 ON
FRIDAY.

BY  FRIDAY EVENING ANOTHER LARGE CUTOFF LOW WILL HAVE FORMED OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS
CANADA WILL DRIVE A SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
FORECAST GUIDANCE VARIES CONSIDERABLY ON HOW THESE WEATHER FEATURES
WILL EVOLVE OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THAT WILL
ACCOMPANY THEN. THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT...TOGETHER WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE
CUTOFF LOW. EVENTUALLY THE CUTOFF LOW WILL LIFT THE LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...AND THIS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DID NOT STRAY FROM THE BLENDED
GUIDANCE...BUT ENVISION THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH FAIRLY DRY ON
SATURDAY...WITH A SLOWER, MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION OF THE CUTOFF
LOW...AND DELAYED NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

IDEAL FLYING CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN MN MONDAY.

KMSP...NO CONCERNS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. ISOLATED AFTN/EVE SHRA POSSIBLE. WIND NW AT 15G25KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NNW AT 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND N 6-8KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...BORGHOFF


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