Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 182354
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
654 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THERE IS FINALLY THE POTENTIAL MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD....BESIDES FROST...FOG AND STRATUS CLOUDS.

TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY WITH LONG
WAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND A HEALTHY
TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE WEST COAST WITH A 70-90KT JET STREAMING
NORTH OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS IS TRIGGERING CONVECTION IN ID/WY/MT THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE THE LLJ HAS BEEN SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY
AND WE`VE MANAGED TO ADVECT IN A LITTLE MORE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE A LOT MORE MID 50
DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
WE EXPECT A LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO THE DAKOTAS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MOVE FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS AROUND 00Z INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY
12Z SAT AS A RIBBON OF 60S DEWPOINTS STREAMS NWD INTO SOUTHERN MN
FRIDAY EVENING. TONIGHT...WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING...WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME OF THE CLOUD
COVER OBSERVED IN NE/KS/MO TODAY BE ADVECTED INTO WESTERN MN
BEFORE SUNRISE. MIXING OFF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW 80S OUT WEST. AS
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THERE IS STRONG CAPPING
OVERHEAD TOMORROW DUE TO STRONG WARM ADVECTION OVER THE NEXT 18
HOURS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOCALLY AND
FOCUS MORE OF THE EARLY FRIDAY ACTIVITY FARTHER NORTH IN MN WHERE
THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS. SHOWER COVERAGE
LOCALLY WILL BE VERY SPARSE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WE HAVE SEEN A CONTINUAL LOWERING IN BOTH POPS
AND QPF OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES ACROSS NEARLY ALL THE
MODELINGS SYSTEMS AVAILABLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER RIDGING BECOMING THE
DOMINATE PLAYER NEXT WEEK EAST OF THE ROCKIES. HENCE A MAINLY DRY
AND MILD WEEK IS EXPECTED. 12Z MODELS HAVE ALSO CONTINUED THE TREND
OF THE FRONT COMING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING DOING SO MAINLY DRY FOR
THE MPX CWA...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO REDUCE POPS/QPF THEN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE OUR MAIN PERIOD FOR PRECIP
CHANCES AS FIRST A COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH A STRONG TRAILING UPPER WAVE LEADING TO RENEWED SHOWER
CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON NE OF I-94. TO START THE LONG TERM...THE
PROBLEM WITH THE FRONT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
FRIDAY EVENING...A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WITH A WARM NOSE
CENTERED AROUND H85. HOWEVER...THIS WARM NOSE LOOKS TO START
BREAKING DOWN SHORTLY AFTER 00Z...WITH THE PROSPECT FOR THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION ALONG THE FRONT LOOKING BETTER BY 3Z. COVERAGE LOOKS TO
BE SCATTERED ALONG THE FRONT...ADD INTO THAT QUESTIONS ABOUT
WHEN/WHERE STORMS WILL BE AS WELL...DECIDED TO CUT POPS BACK TO NO
HIGHER THAN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FRIDAY EVENING...AS VEERING WINDS
AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...ALONG WITH NEUTRAL HEIGHT
FALLS AND THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES LOOK TO MAKE IT
UNLIKELY WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT. AT THIS
POINT...BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE EAST OF A MANKATO TO
RICE LAKE LINE...SO REMOVED QUITE A BIT OF POPS WEST OF THIS
LINE...WHILE REDUCING LIKELIES EAST OF IT DOWN TO NO HIGHER THAN
50%. FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...THIS FRONT LOOKS TO SHIFT EAST
FAIRLY QUICK...SO REDUCED POPS QUITE A BIT AFTER 6Z FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH A DRY FORECAST NOW IN PLACE SATURDAY MORNING. THERE
STILL LOOKS TO BE A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY
ACTIVITY FRIDAY EVENING GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
40-50KTS OF BULK SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR SFC BASED
CONVECTION LOOKS RELATIVELY LOW...SINCE AS THE ELEVATED CAPPING
INVERSION BREAKS DOWN...THE NOCTURNAL SFC INVERSION WILL BE
DEVELOPING...HENCE WHY ALL THE DAY2 SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK MENTIONS
IS THERE BEING A SMALL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH ELEVATED
CONVECTION.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG
WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN ERN CANADIAN TROUGH INTO NRN MN.
BESIDE A STRONG PV SIGNATURE...THIS WAVE WILL BE COMING DOWN WITH A
120+ KT NWRLY JET STREAK. THE PV ADVECTION AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE JET STREAK WILL BE COMING DOWN NORTH OF I-94 SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BEING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...THE FORCING
LOOKS TO HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO BATTLE...BUT GIVEN DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT...STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND FOR POPS/QPF FROM 18Z
SAT TO 6Z SUN...WITH CHANCE POPS WORKING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-94.

SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE A FAIRLY STOUT RIDGE BUILD UP THE
ROCKIES...WITH AN UPPER LOW GETTING CUT-OFF OVER CALIFORNIA. THIS
RIDGE AND UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A DRY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVING
INTO THE LAKES AS WELL. THE CUT-OFF/CLOSED LOW WILL STAY ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES EAST...WITH PRECIP LOOKING TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS NEXT WEEK. STILL QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER
OR NOT THIS WAVE WILL MAKE IT TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WITH THE
ECMWF KEEPING THE WAVE MAINLY TO OUR WEST AS IT STRENGTHENS THE
UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW IT
GETTING HERE EITHER...THOUGH THAT IS BECAUSE IT SHEARS IT OUT
OVERHEAD AS IT ATTEMPTS TO CREST THE RIDGE. H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FROM BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF STARTS MOVING INTO WRN MN AHEAD OF THE WAVE
WED NIGHT...WITH LIMITED QPF CONTINUING INTO THU ACROSS THE
AREA...SO ALLOWED FOR THE CHANCE POPS WED NIGHT/THU FROM THE
BLENDING PROCEDURE TO REMAIN...BUT GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ALONG WITH DRY SURFACE HIGH REMAINING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO GET ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP THIS DIRECTION.

LOOKING BEYOND...THIS BIT OF A PATTERN SHIFT LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE...WITH A WRN TROUGH JOINING IN WITH THE ERN RIDGE BY THE LAST
WEEKEND OF SEPTEMBER...SO MAYBE BY THE END OF SEPTEMBER/BEGINNING OF
OCTOBER WE MAY SLIP BACK INTO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. AT THE VERY
LEAST...WE LOOK TO HAVE SHAKEN NW FLOW FOR A LITTLE BIT AFTER THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

ANOTHER CHALLENGING NIGHT AHEAD WITH REGARDS TO CEILING AND VISIBILITY
FORECASTS FOR THE TAF SITES. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT ARRIVING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS REGION HAD EXTENSIVE IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE
DAY AND THESE WILL HEAD NNE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO WESTERN MN
BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THEREFORE...MAINTAINED THE LOW CEILING
FORECAST ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS DEVELOPING FOR KRWF...KAXN AND
KSTC. THIS AXIS OF LOW CEILINGS WILL PUSH EAST INTO EASTERN MN AND
WESTERN WI DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH
A THREAT FOR SHOWERS. IN THE MEANTIME...IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z AT KRNH AND KEAU. THIS
MAY BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE
IN THE NIGHT. WARM AIR ALOFT ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY KEEP
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT BAY UNTIL THE EVENING AND EVEN THEN
KEAU AND THE SOUTH METRO ARE AT MOST RISK FOR TSRA. THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO SOUTH WINDS
AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID 20 KNOT RANGE.

KMSP...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL
15Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING IN FROM THE WSW THEREAFTER. SOME
SHOWERS MAY ALSO OCCUR IN THE MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT THEN HEAD BACK DOWN INTO MVFR TERRITORY
DURING THE EVENING. MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z...ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR TSRA AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. MORNING -SHRA POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...RAH






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