Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 092031
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
331 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

NOTE...AN UPDATED FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THURSDAY CAN BE
FOUND BELOW.

PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN IS TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. 09.12Z MODELS
DID NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH...BUT DID FEATURE SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING
FOR TONIGHT. GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS WILL START MOVING INTO
THE NORTHWEST /KAXN AREA/ AROUND 00Z...AND MARCHING ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE CONTINUED TO
FEATURE THE HIGHEST /LIKELY/ POPS ALONG/NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94
CORRIDOR...WHERE SATURATION IS RICHER. REGARDLESS...MOST AREAS
WILL ONLY SEE AROUND/UNDER FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD HAVE CLEARED THE
EASTERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CLOUDS CLEARING AND
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING GUSTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER...BUT ACTUALLY STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S /WI AND NC MN/ TO AROUND 60 /SW MN/.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY TAKES A TUMBLE AGAIN BY THE AFTERNOON...SO FIRE
WX WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST AND SOUTH /SEE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW/.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR MUCH COOLER CONDS NEXT WEEK REMAINS HIGH AS THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN SHIFTS TO A MORE NW DIRECTION...LEADING TO COOLER
CANADIAN AIR MASS INTRUSIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER TEMPS...EVEN
SOME LIGHT SNOW...MIXED WITH RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
ATMOSPHERIC THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST REMAINS
CONDUCIVE FOR BOTH RAIN/SNOW DEPENDING UPON THE SFC TEMPS.

A QUICK MOVING SHRTWV WILL BRUSH THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND INTO FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE DEPTH REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL
PROVIDE FOR SOME LIFT TO GENERATE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
QPF. ALTHOUGH THE EC HAS A BROAD AREA OF QPF FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...BOTH THE GEM/GFS HAS A SMALL AREA OF
CONCENTRATED QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.
THEREFORE...THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO KEEP HIGH CHC POPS ALONG
THE NORTHERN PART OF MPX CWA.

A MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM AND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE UPPER
MIDWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND INTO SATURDAY AFTN. THERE REMAINS
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR HIGH CHC OR LIKELY POPS FOR MOST AREAS DURING
THE 06Z TO 18Z SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THE ONLY DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS IS THE ASSOCIATED JET AND HOW BOTH THE SOUTHERN/NORTHERN
STREAMS COMBINE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
ANOTHER FACTOR IN FRIDAY NIGHTS/SATURDAY SYSTEM IS PWATS INCREASE TO
ARND 0.80 TO 1.00" WHICH IS WELL ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF AMTS/HIGHER MODEL POPS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND SFC CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR HOW THESE
PARAMETERS CHG AND WHETHER THERE IS A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF LIFT AND
ASSOCIATED QPF AMTS.

AS DISCUSSED PREVIOUSLY...NEXT WEEK REMAINS BLW NORMAL BUT THERE IS
NO BIG SIGNAL OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM. THE SPLIT FLOW
REGIME WILL PLAY HAVOC ON SFC BOUNDARY LOCATIONS AND WHETHER ENOUGH
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE TO GENERATE QPF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-22KTS WITH
GUSTS TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. SAID FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...SPREADING NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH ARRIVAL BETWEEN 00Z /KAXN/ AND 05Z
/KEAU/. HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING BY 1-2 HOURS PER MODEL TRENDS. PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND THE DURATION OF ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED
TO AROUND A 4 HOUR WINDOW. COVERAGE OF ANY TS IS TOO LOW AT THIS
POINT TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS. COULD ALSO SEE SCT- BKN 2500-3000FT
CLOUDS WITH/BEHIND THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY OVER THE MN/WI BORDER
AND INTO WEST CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...PRECIP/CLOUDS EXIT
BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...WITH THE ONLY REMAINING CONCERN IN THE
PERIOD BEING ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY WINDS...THIS TIME FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SPEEDS INCREASE TO SUSTAINED 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS AROUND 15Z.

KMSP...
TRICKY WIND DIRECTION FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ON WHEN THE SWITCH TO 220 DEGREES WILL OCCUR...BUT HI-RES
MODELS ARE POINTING TO 21-22Z. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IT THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS LOOK TO MOVE IN 1-2 HOURS SOONER THAN DEPICTED
BY THE PREVIOUS TAF...SO BROUGHT IN -SHRA AT 04Z. VSBY REDUCTIONS
WOULD BE MINOR AND COULD SEE SCT MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS AS WELL
/2500-3000 FT/. SKIES CLEAR BETWEEN 09Z AND DAYBREAK THURSDAY...WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 15-18KTS AND GUSTS 25-30KTS DEVELOPING BY
15Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 10-20 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHC SHRA. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS/SHRA. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

YET ANOTHER DAY WITH CRITICAL FIRE WX IS EXPECTED THURSDAY FROM
WEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE
AS WARM AS WEDNESDAY...POST-FRONTAL DRIER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 20S WILL YIELD RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DIPPING TO 25
PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STOUT AS
WELL...SUSTAINED AT SPEEDS OF 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

SNOWMELT CONTINUES TO CAUSE RISING RIVER LEVELS OVER MOST
OF THE MPX AREA...PARTICULARLY NORTH AND EAST. EVEN WITH MINOR QPF
OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...ALL RIVERS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FS WITH
ONLY A COUPLE OVER ACTION STAGE. HOWEVER...IF ABOUT AN INCH OF QPF
ARRIVES AS FCST OVER THE CHIPPEWA WI BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND...WE
COULD SEE THE CHIPPEWA AT DURAND REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE LATE MONDAY
OR TUESDAY. THE HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE THAT THREAT.
OTHERWISE...ICE JAMS ARE A CONCERN AS THE BREAKUP GETS GOING NORTH
AND EAST OF MSP...WITH POTENTIAL UNFORECAST RAPID RISES POSSIBLE
WHEN THEY FORM.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ047-048-
     054>058-064>067-073>078-082>085-091>093.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ054>056-
     064-065-073>075-082-083-091-092.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...LS
FIRE WEATHER...LS
HYDROLOGY...CCS







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