Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 222333

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
633 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Dry weather is expected now through Sunday evening. A cold front
will move through the region, but it will pass through dry although
strong winds are expected in its wake. The main story is early
Tuesday into Wednesday as a powerful storm system develops across
the region and brings 1 to 3 inches of rain across southern MN
and western WI.

For today through Sunday, continued with dry weather and breezy
conditions in the wake of the cold front.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Confidence is increasing in rain late Monday into Wednesday
morning. A powerful storm system that is currently over the Gulf
of Alaska will round the base of the trough, while upstream a
longwave trough will remain over eastern Quebec. As a the Pacific
wave crosses the Rockies, it will amplify and the upper level
forcing associated with the curvature of the flow will lead to
widespread ascent, clouds, and precipitation. A
northwest/southeast oriented frontal boundary will serve as the
focus for banded precipitation, and should see stratiform
rainfall rates on the order of 0.25 to 0.50 inches per hour.
Several hours of this precipitation will lead to 2 to 3 inches of
total rainfall, which should fall across southeast MN and west
central WI. This rain will be stratiform, not anticipating any
flash flooding problems. Will likely see ponding of water in low
spots in fields, and some rises on the rivers and small creeks.

Increased pops based on the strength of the system, together with
the model agreement in both time and space, and feel there is
only a 5% chance or so of not seeing measurable precip along

Looking ahead, dry weather will settle in for Thursday, and


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

A surface low is still expected to evolve tonight from the surface
trough currently over the Dakotas. This low will track near I-94,
reaching AXN around 9z and EAU around 15z. Still expect gusty NW
winds in the wake of the low and that aspect of the TAFs has not
changed. What has changed is the mention of MVFR CIGS tomorrow, with
everything starting to back off on the low clouds locally. Current
expectations is that we will see a BKN cu field develop late morning
in central MN that will quickly build south and east. This cu field
may initially have cigs down around 025, but those are expected to
be short lived, so kept TAFs VFR. This is in line with guidance from
the LAMP, SREF, and blended hi res models.

KMSP...FROPA looks to occur right around 12z, with winds switching
from the SE to the WSW, with WNW winds developing at 15z that will
also gust into the low 20s through the afternoon. Not anticipating
any low cloud development until after 18z.


Mon...VFR. Winds bcmg SE at 5KT.
Tue...BCMG MVFR with -RA. Chc IFR late. Wind ESE at 10G20kt.
Wed...MVFR/IFR/-ra early. Then MVFR. Wind ENE at 5-10kt.


.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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