Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 151801
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1201 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 350 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Early this morning, a digging upper trough just to our east was
advancing eastward, pulling yesterdays Hudson Bay surface low toward
the state of New York.  Low level cold air advection moved through
late last night and early this morning, with the eastern edge of the
upper ridge now on our doorstep.  With the Hudson Bay low moving
well off to the east, the surface pressure gradient is beginning to
weaken across Minnesota and western Wisconsin.  This trend will only
continue through the day as a ridge of high pressure slowly works
through our area.  So, it will be quite a different feel out there
with much lighter winds today.

As the ridge axis works through southerly flow will develop in
western MN first, around 5-10 MPH.  Low level warm air advection
will be ongoing as the thermal ridge starts building in later today,
coinciding with the southerly flow that will develop.  Given the
recent trend of temperatures over-achieving on highs, went with on
the warmer side for highs today and expect far western MN to warm
into the upper 40s, with 50 degrees not out of the question.  It
will be quite a bit cooler across eastern MN and western WI as the
thermal ridge doesn`t really reach those areas until Thursday.  In
addition, low/mid level cloud cover will work into western WI and
eastern MN for several hours today, further limiting high
temperature potential.  Not much to discuss for tonight, lows in the
20s will be common under clearing skies.  No precipitation is
expected during the entire short term period.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 350 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Very anomalous warmth will prevail through the long term as upper
level ridging will surge in twice during the period. The first
surge is late this week, while the other is early next week.

The main concern for the forecast ahead is how warm to go with
temperatures, both lows and highs. This upcoming stretch of warm
weather lines up well with the same period in 1981 where five
record highs in a row were set at MSP (16th-20th). Basically we
haven`t been able to go warm enough with the pattern that we have
and the feeling is the same with several of the days ahead,
primarily Friday and Monday. Therefore, used mainly a blend of
Canadian and ECMWF data for almost every period, which were the
warmest of the guidance available. This places near 60 degree
readings for the Twin Cities on west and south for Friday, which
would be a new record. We basically repeat this thermal pattern
again on Monday. Although on Monday there will be more cloudiness
and a threat of showers as a cold front advances eastward from the
Plains, so held highs more in the middle to upper 50s. Rain
chances are then pretty high Monday night and Tuesday as the front
moves through. Otherwise, highs in the middle 40s to middle 50s
will be common for the other days in the long term. Low
temperatures will also be well above normal during the period.
Record high minimums look to be set on Monday at all of our
climate stations with lows in the upper 30s to middle 40s progged.

Overall, taking the forecast highs and lows for Minneapolis for
Thursday through next Tuesday and averaging them works out to 53
and 37 degrees respectively. Normals highs and lows right now are
29 and 13. This yields an average of 24 degrees above normal on
both the highs and the lows in the long term. The month at MSP
through the 14th is already 6.2 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

VFR conditions this afternoon with some scattered mid-level clouds
streaming in from the north, but otherwise only high cirrus
present at area terminals. Winds will remain light and back
through the afternoon and evening, becoming southeasterly after
sunset. Light southeasterly winds will continue into Wednesday
with increasing cirrus throughout the day.

The possibility does exist for some patchy fog to develop at AXN
around sunrise Wednesday. Models may still be overdoing the snow
cover in that area and thus, the subsequent low-level moisture
available for fog development. Since it is towards the end of this
TAF period, have elected to leave out any mention of fog at this
issuance.



KMSP...
VFR conditions throughout the period. Winds will remain light and back
throughout the afternoon, becoming westerly by mid-afternoon, and
southeasterly after sunset.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind SE at 5 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind S at 5 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind W at 5 kts.
&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...ETA



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