Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 302021
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
321 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN IS FROST POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT OVER THE
NORTHEAST CWA.

LOW CLOUDS SLOW TO CLEAR OVER THE FAR EAST.  AS UPPER TROUGH SHEARS
OFF TO THE EAST...WE WILL SEE DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH RAPID CLEARING BEFORE SUNSET. THEN WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHEAST OVER
THE WEATERN GREAT LAKES REGION.  EXPECT LOWS TO DROP OFF TO THE MID
30S OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF I94 IN
WISCONSIN AND INTO CENTRAL MN. THIS WILL PROMOTE SOME AREAS OF FROST
AND WILL HEADLINE THIS POTENTIAL WITH AN ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS
WHERE GARDENS ARE PLANTED AND GROWING SEASON IS WELL UNDERWAY.

ON SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE...NOW LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
IDAHO/WESTERN MONTANA...MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.  THIS WILL SPREAD
CLOUDS AND A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS TO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST CWA.
ATMOSPHERE IS DRY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA...SO IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE MEASURABLE RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AT BAY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. COULD HAVE A FEW FROST
CONCERNS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AGAIN...BUT PRIMARILY OVER NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN UP NEAR LADYSMITH. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ON
MONDAY...BUT STILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE WANES FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK...WITH RESPECT TO DETAILS SURROUNDING THE EVOLUTION OF A
TROUGH THAT WILL BE ON OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HAVE DECENT CONFIDENCE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER
WEST/CENTRAL MN ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BLOSSOMS AND
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. WHETHER REDEVELOPMENT
OCCURS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY IS UNCERTAIN...GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM RESIDUAL CLOUDS/STABILITY FROM
NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY. THE FRONT MAY LAY UP IN OUR AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING/PLACEMENT...KEPT POPS
IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

MVFR CLOUD DECK ALONG THE ST CROIX RIVER AND EAST...SHOULD
GRADUALLY DROP SOUTH AND ERODE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WORKS
INTO THE AREA. THEN CLEARING/VFR INTO THE EVENING WITH HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTY AT TIMES TO 21KTS OR INTO THE
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THROUGH 01Z SUN AND BECOMING LIGHT EAST
OVERNIGHT.

KMSP...
SOME STATOCU INTO THE HE AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING THROUGH 01Z SUN.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WORKING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS
GUSTING TO 21KTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT EAST OVERNIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN NITE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS SE 10 KT.
TUE...VFR. CHANCE -TSRA LATE. WINDS SSE 10-15 KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ042>045-
     049>053.

WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR WIZ014>016-023-
     025-027.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE



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