


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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509 FXUS63 KMPX 070819 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 319 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower & thunderstorm chances return this afternoon and evening. Slight Risk (Level 2/5) of severe weather across western MN. - Next best chance for more widespread showers and storms arrives Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...It`s a quiet start to the day across the Upper Midwest, with mostly clear skies and 3 AM temperatures in the low to mid 60s. Winds are light, which will promote the potential for ground fog to develop as temperatures cool towards the dew point over the next few hours. We`ve seen this idea come to fruition at Benson, where recent obs indicate that visibility has dipped to a mile and a half. While pockets of fog are possible across far western/central MN (like the Benson case), the main area to watch for fog development will be across southern MN/western WI where a pool of 62-65 degree dew points exists. Fog should erode fairly quickly this morning as mixing begins shortly after daybreak. STORM CHANCES LATER TODAY...GOES water-vapor imagery captures a shallow shortwave trough over the International Border between Montana and Saskatchewan. The eastward movement of this feature will push a frontal boundary across the Dakotas today, serving as the forcing mechanism for thunderstorms. While variations exist across the CAM suite, the consensus is that one, or possibly multiple clusters of storms will develop across the Dakotas and move east into western Minnesota this afternoon. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat as storms cross the state border. Should storms remain in multi-cell clusters, large hail would also be possible. On the other hand, upscale growth into a bowing segment would likely limit the hail threat but could enhance the damaging wind threat. Regardless of how the convective scenario unfolds, locations across western MN are under the highest threat for severe storms given ~2000+ J/kg of MUCAPE and 30-40kts of effective shear. SPC has introduced a Day 1 Slight Risk (2/5) for aforementioned threats along and west of a line from Granite Falls-Willmar-Alexandria. A Marginal Risk (1/5) extends east of this area to a line from Waseca to New Richmond (this includes the Twin Cities Metro). Weaker instability and shear, as well as stable lapse rates and the loss of daytime heating should promote weakening of any convective complex/clusters as they move east across MN/WI this evening. Still, an isolated damaging wind gust will remain possible. We have lowered PoPs to "Chance ~30-40 percent" across eastern MN/western WI, given the expectation that storms will be decaying with eastward movement tonight, which will result in a lower precipitation footprint. One other item to mention, should a more substantial bowing MCS take shape across SD, our current thinking is that is would track southeast along the instability gradient which supports the greater coverage of the Slight Risk to the southwest across WFO Sioux Falls forecast area. REST OF THE WEEK...Relatively quiet weather returns following today/tonight`s thunderstorm chances. It looks like we may be contending with another round of ground fog tomorrow morning due to clearing skies and light winds, along with the moisture from the rain chances. Airmass showers/isolated t-storm will be possible Tuesday across SE MN/W WI, though the severe weather threat is low. Afternoon highs warm into the lower 80s both Tuesday and Wednesday. By Thursday, an upper-level ridge axis is forecast to be positioned over the Great Lakes, with troughing beginning to dig into the Pacific Northwest. Southwesterly flow/warm advection will begin to increase in response the troughing, which will push temperatures into the mid 80s (upper 80s across western MN)for Thursday`s highs. A vort max at the base of the trough is progged to slide across northern CONUS heading into Friday and serve as the focus for widespread rain and thunderstorms to end the work week. As you may imagine, there is some spread in guidance with respect to timing and coverage of precipitation, however feel that the latest PoPs from the NBM are reasonable: Chance PoPs beginning later Thursday evening and increasing to likely PoPs through Friday morning/midday. Cooler temperatures will follow the rain chances for the upcoming weekend, which is reflected in the NBM with highs in the 70s. Medium to long range ensemble guidance shows height rises early next week which would bring back Summer warmth and storm chances heading into the middle of the month. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1219 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Light winds and a pool of moisture across southern MN/western WI will be the focus for ground fog after 9z at MKT, EAU, & RNH. Maintained the going TEMPO groups for a period of visibility reductions at each of these terminals. Focus then shifts to thunderstorm chances starting later in the afternoon. Following the latest hi-res trends, kept the TEMPOs for -TSRA at RWF & AXN, and added a PROB30 at STC. Storms are forecast to weaken with eastward movement heading into this evening, so did not have confidence to include thunder at MKT/MSP/RNH. KMSP...No major changes to the 6z TAF, as confidence remains too low to include thunder after 00z. Will likely be contending with showers as decaying thunderstorms move east across the area. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Chc IFR cig/vis in mrng. Wind WNW 5-10 kts. WED...VFR. Wind light/variable. THU...VFR. Chc TSRA overnight. Wind SSE 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Strus AVIATION...Strus