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000
FXUS63 KMPX 270353
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1053 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THUNDER THREAT TONIGHT AND COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER SUNDAY.

WESTERLY WINDS MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS...MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL MN NOW.  SOME MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS AR 19Z. SOME HEAVIER CUMULUS INDICATED AND
WEAK RADAR RETURNS NORTH OF KAXN. STILL COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT
MOVES INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN AFTER 00Z SUN. WILL CARRY SOME LOW
POPS WITH THIS FEATURE EAST INTO WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKS SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION INTO SUNDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. COLD POOL
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS WELL....MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE INTO THE
LOW/MID 70S OVER MOST OF THE REGION. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
ALSO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE HOLD STARTING SUN NIGHT AS A CUTOFF
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS OFF TO THE E ALONG WITH ITS SFC
LOW PRES CENTER REFLECTION. THIS WILL DRAG ANY PRECIPITATION OFF
TO THE E...STARTING A PROLONGED DRIER AND COOLER LONGER RANGE
PERIOD. MODIFIED CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION STARTING MONDAY AND LAST THRU WEDNESDAY...PROMOTING MOSTLY
CLEAR AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. 12Z GFS DOES
ATTEMPT TO SPIT OUT A HUNDREDTH HERE AND THERE...BUT WITH
VIRTUALLY NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND SFC HIGH PRES ENTRENCHED OVER
THE AREA...AM DISCOUNTING THIS. IN FACT...THE ONLY PERIOD HAVING
MENTION OF PRECIP IS THU DURING THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROF
DISTURBANCE ALOFT FORMS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND DRIFTS
SWD...ALLOWING ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER NW WI AND DRIFT
TO THE S INTO ERN AND SRN MN INTO WRN WI. SFC HIGH PRES LOOKS TO
REASSERT ITSELF FOR FRI AND SAT WITH CONTINUED NW FLOW
ALOFT...AGAIN RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL DRYING OUT TIME AND
TEMPERATURES STILL RUNNING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF THE TAF SITES AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI AND SE
MN. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KEAU WITH A THUNDERSTORM HAVING MOVED
THROUGH IN THE PAST HOUR. DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS
ON SUNDAY...A COMPACT VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS INTO CENTRAL MN
AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL WI (KAXN-KSTC-KRNH). KEPT
KRWF-KMSP AND KEAU JUST ABOVE VFR MINIMUMS. ACCOMPANYING THE LOW
ON SUNDAY WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
VSBYS TO STAY VFR IN THE SHOWERS AS THEY WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 14-18 KNOTS. DIMINISHING WIND AND CLOUDS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

KMSP...BKN-OVC035-045 IMPACTING THE AIRFIELD ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH
SOME SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AIRFIELD. WNW
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING NW 15-18 KNOTS
SUNDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...VFR. WINDS N 10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH