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000
FXUS63 KMPX 030136
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
736 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 723 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

MADE A QUICK GRIDDED AND TEXT UPDATE TO EXTEND THE WIND CHILL ADVY
FOR THE ENTIRE WFO MPX CWFA THRU 15Z /9AM CST/ MON MRNG. WINDS
WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO 5 MPH OVERNIGHT...AND MAY EVEN DROP OFF TO
VALUES WHERE THEIR EFFECT ON TEMPS MAY BE NEGLIGIBLE. HOWEVER...
LATEST SHORT-TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT LATTER SCENARIO AS BEING
LESS THE CASE AND INDICATE THAT WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN SOLIDLY
WITHIN THRESHOLD VALUES THRU THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. WITH TEMPS AS COLD AS THEY ARE...EVEN THE LITTLEST OF
WINDS WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS TO 25 BELOW ZERO VALUES SO FELT MORE
COMFORTABLE HIGHLIGHTING SUCH VALUES IN THE ADVY THRU 9AM TMRW
MRNG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

THE ACTIVE WX WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CONUS
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT...JUST A GENTLE BREEZE OF 5 TO 10 MPH WILL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES OF -25 TO -35F TONIGHT. BY
MIDNIGHT...MOST OF THE WIND SPDS WILL BE LESS THAN 5 MPH...OR
ALMOST THE SAME AS THE ACTUAL TEMP. THEREFORE WILL END THE WIND
CHILL ADV FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY MIDNIGHT...AND ALLOW FOR THE FAR
SE CWA TO CONTINUE THRU 3 AM AS WINDS REMAIN ABV 5 MPH. TEMPS
OVERNIGHT ARE ON TRACK TO SET RECORD LOWS AS CLEAR SKIES...DEEP
SNOWPACK AND STRONG RADIATION COOLING WITH LEAD TO THIS SCENARIO.
CURRENT RECORD LOWS ARE ON MPX WEBSITE UNDER TOP NEWS OF THE DAY.

A POTENT WX SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW THIS AFTN WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
BY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT CLDS TO INCREASE AFT DAWN WITH -SN
DEVELOPING IN NW/WC MN BY NOON...AND SPREADING E/SE ACROSS
CENTRAL/EC MN BY THE LATE AFTN/EVENING. A QUICK ONE HALF TO 1.5
INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL IN CENTRAL MN...WITH ONLY A DUSTING NEAR
THE TWIN CITIES. SNOWFALL RATIOS WILL REMAIN HIGH IN THE 15-1 TO
25-1 RANGE. THEREFORE...ANY QPF WILL TRANSLATE TO SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

THE LONGER TERM TRENDS ARE FINALLY POINTING TO MODERATION IN THE
TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT. THIS ALONG WITH A SERIES OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL AND WEAKER SHORT WAVES RIDE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.

THE FIRST SNOW EVENT WILL AFFECT THE NORTHEAST CWA MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW...MAYBE AN INCH OR
TWO...INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY TUESDAY MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE LIKELY POP TREND OVER THIS REGION OF THE CWA.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OF SOUTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY...WITH FORCING DIRECTED FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST...NEAR
THE MORE COMPACT BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS WILL SPREAD MORE LIGHT SNOW
INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TUESDAY MORNING...THEN EXITING TO THE
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING LIGHT
SNOW LOOKS TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY POPS ADDED HERE.

MODELS THEN DIVERGE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER AIR FLOW
PATTERN AFTER WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER AND STRONGER WITH YET
MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY WHICH MOVES FROM PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH
COLUMBIA REGION...ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.  WILL HAVE TO COMPROMISE WITH MODELS THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND WILL TREND TO THE SLOWER 12Z ECMWF FOR NOW. WILL
CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MENTIONED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AND TREND MORE OF A CHANCE TYPE PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR THU NITE
INTO FRI NITE FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. WILL MENTION JUST SNOW
FOR NOW...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF DOES DRAW UP NICE THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

VFR FOR MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING -SN TO NRN-CENTRAL MN INTO WRN WI MON
NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM HIGH TO LOW
DURG THE DAY TMRW...WITH KAXN BEING THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS. KAXN WILL MOST LIKELY SEE SOME VFR-TO-MVFR RANGE -SN
WITH A SMALL WINDOW OF IFR VSBY -SN CLOSE TO THE 00Z HOUR TMRW
EVE. KSTC ALSO HAS A SMALL WINDOW OF POSSIBLY SEEING MVFR -SN JUST
BEFORE 00Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER SO HAVE USED A TEMPO GROUP AS
OPPOSED TO PREVAILING. ANY CHANCES FOR OTHER TERMINALS WOULD
BE AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO TMRW MRNG AS HIGH
PRES MOVES ACRS THE REGION...RESUMING FROM THE S DURG THE DAY TMRW
IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE.

KMSP...VFR THRU THE DAY TMRW...THEN THE ISSUE BECOMES TRYING TO
TIME IN ANY POTENTIAL -SN...ESP AFTER 00Z. MODEL CONSENSUS PUTS
-SN AFTER 00Z SO HAVE GONE THAT ROUTE...BUT WITH ONLY A GLANCING
BLOW AT THIS POINT HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS WITHIN VFR RANGE. WINDS TO
REMAIN AOB 10 KT...SHIFTING FROM W-NW TNGT TO S BY TMRW AFTN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC AFTN MVFR/-SN. WINDS ENE 5 KTS.
WED...MAINLY VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
THU...MAINLY VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ041>045-047>070-
     073>078-082>085-091>093.

WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ014>016-023>028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JPC