Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 102125

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
325 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

Short term concerns are snow amounts and headlines through

Updated earlier to expand the advisory farther to the north...from
Morris...St Cloud east into west central Wisconsin and south across
southern Minnesota.  Looking at overall QPF still looks
like around one half inch across south central Minnesota...with
about one quarter inch over the far north.  Taking into account
overall SLR`s of around 20:1 to the north and around 15:1 far
south....we should see 6 to 8 inch snow accumulations into south
central MN with 3 to 6 inches over the north...over a 24 to 36 hour
period. Surface winds will be negligible for the period of snow
fall...and pick up some in the wake of the surface low into western
MN Sunday afternoon.  With the snow ending...overall blowing
snow is expected to remain minimal.

We have one band of moderate snow now working into the southern
metro as initial surge of isentropic lift moves in.  The other
moderate snow band is located farther south across south central MN.
Various models lift this southern band north into the central cwa
through 06z and into the northeast cwa 06z-12z. We should  see 2-3
inch snows with this band of snow as it moves through.

Improving conditions should ensue to the west Sunday morning...but
the snow should continue least lightly through much of
the day...possible ending Sunday evening over west central Wisconsin.
With the clouds and snow...temperatures should be nearly steady this
evening...slowly warming through the lower to middle 20s through

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

The Arctic blast is the main headline in the long term portion of
the forecast, although there could end up being an equally as big
headline toward the end of the upcoming week; this time in the
form of another winter storm.

Medium range models are in fairly good agreement that weak high
pressure will settle in on Sunday night in the wake of the storm,
with the real surge of cold arriving in the wake of the Arctic
front that pushes through Monday afternoon and evening. Scattered
snow showers are expected to accompany the frontal passage, along
with a shift to brisk northwest winds. Temperatures will plummet
into the single digits below zero on Monday night, with wind chill
values potentially nearing advisory criteria across west central
MN early Tuesday morning. High pressure will gradually spill
southeast through most of the work week, with highs in the single
digits and sub-zero lows. While winds will settle down a bit, wind
chill advisories will remain a possibility through Thursday
morning (for west central MN locations).

The forecast for Friday into the start of next weekend is looking
increasingly interesting. Both GFS and ECMWF Models forecast an
inverted trough to nose into the mid/upper Mississippi Valley.
While timing/spatial agreement is not perfect, model agreement is
sufficient to warrant the inclusion of high chance to low likely
precip probabilities. The early progs of this system look
comparable to the Plains low archetype composite for storms which
have historically brought 6 inch or greater snowfalls to the
area. Stay tuned...


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

Snow band lifting northeast into southwest MN at this time.
Expect snow to move across all taf sites through 01Z Sun. IFR
cigs/vsbys expected through most of the event. Models suggest a
couple periods of moderate snow into the southern taf sites into
the evening and across the north mainly after 08z-14z Sun. The
HRRR timing depiction looks good at this time. Not expecting much
more than 1/2 inch per hour rates. The base visibility of 1 1/2-2
1/2sm looks good with most intense periods of snow seeing
visibilities of 3/4sm. Surface winds should remain or become east
and eventually swing to more n-nw direction late Sunday morning
out west as the surface low moves east.

KMSP...Snow will move into the terminal between 20z and 23z. Once
it gets here, we will see visibilities quickly down to the 2-3sm
range. Based on short term models...we will likely see a period of
moderate snow this evening 01z-04z and then again sometime later
tonight perhaps in the 09z-14z period as the upper trough moves
through. Storm total forecast snowfall currently expected up in
the 5-6" area.

Sun...IFR/MVFR with -SN. Winds E bcmg NW overnight 5-10 kts.
Mon...MVFR/VFR. Chc -sn late. SW wind 5-10 kts. Bcmg NW 10G20
Tue...VFR. W wind 5-10 kts.


WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CST
     Sunday for WIZ014>016-027-028.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 PM CST
     Sunday for WIZ023>026.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for MNZ076-084-093.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST
     Sunday for MNZ047>049.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for MNZ051>053-

     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST
     Sunday for MNZ050-063.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for MNZ064-065-067-

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for MNZ054>058-066.



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