Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 032111
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
411 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

A COUPLE FORECAST TOPICS TO DISCUSS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  FOR
ONE...COULD WE SEE A REPEAT OF THE FOGGY MORNING WE HAD TODAY?  YES
IT IS POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH A SIMILAR
SETUP...AND VERY HIGH DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEEDING 70 DEGREES.  HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE WIND
TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD HELP INHIBIT THE DENSITY OF ANY FOG THAT DOES
FORM.  THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE A FEW DENSE FOG PATCHES
TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME WE DON`T EXPECT IT TO BE LIKE LAST
NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING.  STILL...SOUNDINGS INDICATE SATURATION BY
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH A STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION AND
HYDROLAPSE INCREASING WITH HEIGHT.

TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE
90S AND WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 MAKING IT FEEL VERY MUGGY
OUTSIDE...SIMILAR TO TODAY.  LASTLY...A SHORTWAVE WILL RACE
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...FED BUT THE SUBTROPICAL
JET...AND REACH THE DAKOTAS TOMORROW MORNING.  INTRODUCED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INTO WESTERN MN LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THIS FEATURE
COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE SE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS TO OUR WEST...AND DEEPENS TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PEAK THIS WEEKEND WITH A PATTERN
CHANGE/MORE ZONAL FLOW ARRIVING FOR NEXT WEEK. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
MINNESOTA FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SUB-TROPICAL VORT RIDES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER CHANCE WILL ARRIVE
SATURDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
IS SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN PLACE. OVERALL...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
RAINS LOOK TO BE NORTHWEST OF THE TWIN CITIES SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PW FORECASTS FROM THE GFS
INDICATE NEAR RECORD VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
(1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES). TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS WOULD HAVE THE
CAPABILITY FOR PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL AS WAS
WITNESSES IN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WI WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HENCE...ALTHOUGH THERE SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE CONCERN TODAY IS MORE WITH THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL.

THE WARMEST DAY IN THE LONGER TERM WILL LIKELY BE SATURDAY WITH
MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S. THIS COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S RESULTS IN HEAT INDICES PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S.
LITTLE RELIEF WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TWIN
CITIES NEAR 75. HENCE...HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE TWIN CITIES AS WE FINE TUNE THE WEEKEND FORECAST. CERTAINLY
THOSE OUT AND ABOUT SATURDAY SHOULD TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS DUE TO
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S ON MONDAY DROPPING TO AROUND 70 FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. 12Z LONG TERM SOLUTIONS POINTED TO LESSER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY VERSUS THE 00Z RUNS.
CONFIDENCE ON THE DRIER FORECAST WAS HIGHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
OF THE TWIN CITIES. COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORS IN THESE
AREAS RESULTED IN A DRY FORECAST WITH SMALL CHANCE POPS REMAINING
TO THE NORTH AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

STUBBORN STRATUS HAS NEARLY COMPLETELY BURNED OFF BY THIS
POINT...WITH A FEW TAF SITES STILL LINGERING IN THE
CLOUDINESS...WHICH WILL SCATTER QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THIS
HAPPENS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WITH SE WINDS. LOOK FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AGAIN IS TRAPPED
UNDER A STRONG INVERSION. A LITTLE MORE WIND TOMORROW SHOULD HELP
INHIBIT THE VERY LOW VIS FROM DEVELOPING. VFR AGAIN AFTER 15Z OR
SO ACROSS THE AREA.

KMSP...EXPECT VFR THE REST OF THE DAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR VIS TOMORROW MORNING DURING THE MORNING RUSH...BUT GOING VFR
AGAIN AROUND 15Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR AND SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE. WIND S AT10G20KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 15G20KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...SPD



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