Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 200518
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1118 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

The short term concern is the extent of warmer into Monday ahead
of strong cold front moving into the northwest cwa late in the
afternoon.

Pacific air lifting northeast over the cwa this afternoon. Some
mid 50s for highs on the lee of the Buffalo Ridge to the
southwest with a southwest breeze. Some mid/high level clouds
drifted over the eastern cwa this afternoon. That should exit to
the east this evening. Ridging aloft over the Dakotas has abundant
high clouds associated with the Pacific moisture. This will
likely spread east across most of the cwa overnight. This should
help keep temperatures from dropping too much overnight. We should
see readings at least 10 degrees warmer than last nights lows.

Warming ahead of the incoming trough for Monday should yield at
least mid 50s for highs to the southwest once again. The only
limiting factor will be timing of the cold front and the extent of
mid/high level clouds once again. We still may see a 50 in the
metro though this is at the higher end of ensemble guidance.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

The strong cold front sweeps southeast over the region by late
Monday night. Gusty northwest winds of at least 20-25 mph with
gusts to 40 mph will be possible with the strong caa and pressure
gradient that develops. We do expect some stratocumulus to develop
in the wake of the front and there may be a few flurries over the
eastern area into Tuesday. We left that out for now.

The next wave moves toward the area later Wednesday and should
increase the clouds over the area Wednesday afternoon. We should
see at least a small chance of light snow to the western cwa
during the afternoon. The GFS does saturate the boundary layer per
trends of the 295K isentropic surface. This spreads east into
Wednesday night and gradually weakens. We continued a slight
chance PoP for at least the potential of light snow/flurries.
Again the GEFS probability held some low chances to the east.

Ridging aloft keeps the are within the baroclinic zone across the
area. Cooling following the Wednesday system should be limited.
The next Pacific system arrives Friday and we warm back into the
mid 50s to the southwest once again. Depending on timing and
extent of clouds, we could see readings approach 50 again toward
the Twin Cities Friday afternoon. We should see a better chance of
precipitation as this front moves through into Friday night.
Cooler air and dry conditions is drawn in the wake of this trough
into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Looking on satellite to the northwest you see what we will be
dealing with for much of the day Monday, BKN-OVC clouds between
150 and 200. A cold front will be blasting through the AXN area at
the end of the TAF period. Being ahead of the front much of this
period, we`ll be dominated by southwest winds. Post FROPA, there
will be potential for some big NW wind gusts, likely up around 40
kts, but speeds like that are lurking for the end of the 12z TAF
period.

KMSP...High confidence in the TAF. We may have some 2k-4k ft cigs
approaching MSP by 12z Tue, but looks like they do not really
materialize until the sun comes up Tuesday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...Chc MVFR cigs in morning. Winds NW 15-20G30-35 kts.
WED...VFR. Winds SW 5-10 kts.
THU...VFR. Winds NW to W 5kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MPG



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