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000
FXUS63 KMPX 270912
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
412 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Aside from some patchy fog, nothing is going on weatherwise this
morning with clear skies across the region. This is largely
expected to continue through tonight, but meager instability will
build in the cloud bearing layer late this afternoon over western
WI. This could allow a few showers to develop as a short wave
dives southeast this evening. The best coverage will be over
northeast MN where the short wave will pass overhead during peak
heating. It may not reach western WI until closer to sunset when
diurnal instability diminishes. Kept 20 PoPs in place, north and
east of Eau Claire. Skies clear again tonight, with some patchy
fog forming again during the early overnight hours after winds
decouple.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

No major changes to the long term forecast as the period continues
to look dry with seasonable temperatures and light winds. The best
chance for showers or thunderstorms is during the
Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe.

The storm track will set up well north of the region across
central Canada. That means only trailing cold fronts will make it
through the Upper Midwest. With high pressure centered over the
Upper Mississippi River Valley, will see little in the way of
return flow or moisture over Minnesota and Wisconsin. This is not
a favorable set up for convection, so expect dry weather to
continue through the weekend and into next week.

Late Tuesday into Wednesday night one of these cold fronts could
be the focus for showers or thunderstorms, and the upper level
wave driving it does make its way close to the region, so
continued with 20 to 30 percent chance of storms during this time
period. Not anticipating organized severe weather or heavy rain.
PWAT values will only be around 1.6 to 1.7 inches, and MUCAPE
values will only be around 1000 to 1500 J/kg.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1046 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

VFR conditions expected to prevail throughout this TAF set. High
clouds this evening through tomorrow morning then scattered mid-
level fair weather cumulus clouds to develop for tomorrow
afternoon. Some MVFR ground fog is possible, particularly at the
WI TAF sites, during the pre-dawn hours Thursday morning. Lesser
chances at the outlying MN TAF sites but confidence is less so
will omit its mention at this point.

KMSP...Some patchy ground fog is possible near MSP airport,
particularly near bodies of water, but is not expected to roll
onto the MSP airport grounds. Otherwise, no significant weather
impacts expected.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...VFR. Wind E 5 kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
Sun...VFR. Wind SW 5 kts. Isolated SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JPC