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000
FXUS63 KMPX 071954
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
154 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...CDFNT RESPONSIBLE FOR WINTRY PRECIP THIS MRNG
FOLLOWED BY FALLING TEMPS THIS AFTN HAS JUST ABOUT PUSHED THROUGH
ALL OF MN AND IS MAKING ITS WAY THRU CENTRAL-SRN WI. LOW CLOUDS IN
ITS WAKE WILL PREVENT MUCH IF NOT ANY SUNSHINE FROM REACHING THE SFC
BEFORE NIGHTFALL. A LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRES UNDER PROGRESSIVE NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SKIES TO CLEAR OUT THIS EVE INTO THE EARLY
MRNG HRS WHILE CAA WILL BE IN FULL FORCE. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH
PRES WILL KEEP MOCLR SKIES IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TMRW...BUT
THE CONTINUED INFLUX OF COLD AIR WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE DROP OFF IN
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN DROP
BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND EVEN SOME SUB-ZERO LOWS IN
W-CENTRAL MN. FOR HIGHS ON SAT...DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE...CAA WILL
WIN OUT EASILY AS HIGHS WILL ONLY HIT THE LOW-MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

MAINLY DRY THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION
TUESDAY AS THE NORTHERN JET STREAM INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS TODAY TO SLOWLY INCREASE THE CHC/S OF
PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY. AS WHAT HAPPENED EARLIER TODAY
WITH A STRONG JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST...THIS ALLOWED FOR ENOUGH LIFT/MOISTURE TO GENERATE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL MN ALONG A COLD FRONT. THIS JET
INTERACTION IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY/S SYSTEM SO IT NEEDS TO BE
MONITORED. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION. PLUS IT SHOULD BEGIN
AS RAIN...AND SLOWLY TRANSITION TO WET SNOW AS COLDER AIR FILTERS
IN TUESDAY.

OTHER THAN TUESDAY SYSTEM...THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS
WILL BE TEMPS...ESPECIALLY SUN/MON AS 92H TEMPS RISE SIGNIFICANTLY
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LATEST EC MODEL RUN HAS 92H TEMPS
FROM +12C IN SW MN...TO ARND +5C IN WC WI. THIS IS ROUGHLY 2.5C
HIGHER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN WOULD BE THE
AMT OF CLD CVR/FOG POTENTIAL AS DEW PTS RISE INTO THE 30S. THIS
MAY SET THE STAGE FOR STRATUS ACROSS MPX CWA AS WARMER AIR RIDES
OVER THE DENSE SNOW PACK. THE ONLY AREAS THAT MAY BE WARMER THAN
WHAT MODELS ARE DEPICTING ARE IN WC MN WHERE THE SNOW PACK IS
MUCH LESS. BASED ON THESE CONSIDERATIONS...WILL HOLD ONTO
40S...WITH NEAR 50 ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN WC/SW
MN. MONDAY MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE W/NW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

ALL TERMINALS SHOWING GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH WEAK INTERMITTENT
BANDS OF SHRA/FZRA SHIFTING OFF TO THE E. ALL SITES WILL BE
DEALING WITH MVFR CEILINGS THRU LATE AFTN...WHILE ERN MN INTO WRN
WI SITES WILL ALSO HAVE ADDED MVFR VSBY CONCERNS...POSSIBLY
INTERMITTENT IFR CONCERNS. IMPROVEMENT WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE
ONCE THE CDFNT ITSELF PUSHES THRU AND WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR TO IMPROVE VSBY AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TO SCOUR OUT LOW
CLOUDS. ALL SITES WILL BE VFR BY LATE EVENING AND WILL REMAIN AS
SUCH TONIGHT THRU TMRW. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NW BY
EARLY AFTN...THEN SETTLE DOWN BELOW 10 KT OVERNIGHT AND EVEN
BECOME LGT/VRBL FOR A PERIOD NEAR DAWN...LASTING THRU THE LATE
MRNG.

KMSP...NEED TO INITIALIZE AS SOLID MVFR...INCLUDING CEILINGS
SUB-1700 FT...FOR THE START OF THE 07/18Z TAF. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN
TO IMPROVE ABOUT 2-3 HRS IN AS A CDFNT ARRIVES FROM THE
NW...HELPING TO SCOUR OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS. VFR CONDS LOOK TO
SETTLE IN BY LATE EVENING AND THEN REMAIN AS VFR THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME SCT MIDLVL CU CLOUDS TMRW
AFTN...NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. NW WINDS THRU THIS EVE BECOME LGT/VRBL
OVERNIGHT BEFORE RESUMING FROM THE W LATE TMRW AFTN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. SW WIND 15-25 KT.
SUN NIGHT...VFR. W WIND 10-20 KT BCMG NW LESS THAN 10 KT.
MON...VFR. W WIND 5-15 KT.
MON NIGHT AND TUE...MVFR CIGS PSBL. W WIND 5-15 KT BCMG NW.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...JPC