Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 192124

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
424 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 424 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Ongoing severe MCS will exit to the southeast quickly late this
afternoon. The forecast then becomes quite uncertain for this
evening and overnight with convective redevelopment possible
across central Minnesota. The atmosphere seems to be recovering
somewhat across South Dakota and there have been a few cells over
west central MN this afternoon. The HRRR would imply an east-west
line of storms developing between 02-03Z across central MN and
progress southeast for the rest of the evening into the early
overnight hours. This activity would contain a large hail threat,
although some damaging wind gusts are also possible. The biggest
threat will be heavy rainfall with training cells, but CAMs seem
to keep the line progressing southward which would limit flash
flooding potential.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 424 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Will be updated later.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Showers and thunderstorms will push east across MN this afternoon
with severe storms expected to track south of the MN river, likely
south of MKT and RWF. After this round, another may develop across
central MN this evening and push southeast tonight. VFR conditions
expected outside of precipitation until late tonight when MVFR
cigs may develop.

KMSP...Should see some showers pushing in between 20-21Z and
persist for a couple hours. Embedded thunderstorms are expected.
Confidence is quite low tonight, but another round of storms may
develop mid to late evening.

Fri...Mainly VFR. -SHRA/TSRA likely. Winds SE 5-10 kts.
Sat...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR in -SHRA/TSRA. Winds lgt and vrbl.
Sun...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts.




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