Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 021751
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1151 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE SLIDING
SOUTHEAST TODAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WHICH IS ALLOWING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO ADVECT NORTH
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS MOISTURE WILL REACH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING.

TODAY IS LOOKING GOOD. OTHER THAN AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND STRENGTHENING WINDS ACROSS WESTERN MN THIS AFTERNOON...NOTHING
OF PARTICULAR SIGNIFICANCE IS EXPECTED.

THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
BY MIDNIGHT. ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL REACH COLORADO THIS
EVENING AND SPAWN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER.
THE MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO SHEAR AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SEND A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS/VORTICITY
NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. INCREASING
MOISTURE...IN ADDITION TO BEING PROPERLY POSITIONED NEAR THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET SHOULD PRODUCE A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA AROUND
MIDNIGHT. ALL HI-RES MODELS SEEM TO LATCH ONTO THIS IDEA WELL AND
THE GFS IS ALSO SHOWING IT...REPRESENTING THE GLOBAL MODELS. THINK
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS BAND. THE
REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY INTO THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS
UNTIL THE SYSTEM ITSELF APPROACHES AND LIFT BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD.
THEN THE MAIN SNOW SHIELD WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ERN MN AND WRN
WI...LIKELY AFTER 09Z.

DECIDED TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THE AREA IMPACTED WITH THE BAND
TONIGHT AS THE WIND AND RESULTANT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE
SUFFICIENTLY DISPLACED IN TIME.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

THE LONG TERM CONCERN REMAINS HEADLINES FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
EVENING.

SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA AROUND 12Z TUE.  THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE MINNESOTA/DAKOTAS BORDER AS WELL.  THE
FRONT ADVANCES EAST INTO EAST CENTRAL MN THROUGH ABOUT 18Z AND
EXITS TO THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.  THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT
FARTHER NORTH IN THE TRACK OF THE WEAKER SURFACE LOW.  DEVELOPMENT
OF THE UPPER WAVE HAS BRINGS THE STRONG 165KT 250MB JET OVER THE
AREA INTO TUESDAY.  THIS SHOULD GENERATE SOME STRONGER
FRONTOGENTICAL FORCING AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST TUESDAY
MORNING.  IT MAY BE A GOOD 6 HOUR SNOW EVENT FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING. SNOW TOTALS OF 3-5 INCHES LOOK
GOOD IN THIS AREA WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MN.  THE
PRESSURE RISE CENTER DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS AND IS DRIVEN
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTHWEST MN AND IOWA THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE THE STRONG WINDS
OVER THIS AREA DURING THE DAY. BUFKIT STILL IS SHOWING WINDS AROUND
43 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE CHANNEL DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE
SOUTHWEST CWA.  THIS SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR SOME 45 MPH WIND
GUSTS AS THIS RISE CENTER MOVES THROUGH.  THE WIND COMBINED WITH THE
2-5 INCHES OF FRESH SNOW FORECAST ACROSS THIS AREA WILL GENERATE
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...THEREFORE THE BLIZZARD WATCH HAS BEEN
CONVERTED TO A WARNING AT 12Z IN WEST CENTRAL MN...AND INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATCH AREA INCLUDING ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL MN AFTER
15Z TUE.  THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA IS UNDER THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...AND WILL END THE HEADLINES AROUND 03Z WED.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...COLD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
WEATHER INTO THURSDAY.  WIND CHILLS WILL BECOME A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
IF THE WINDS DONT DIE OFF FAST ENOUGH.  BELOW ZERO AIR TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST BOTH MORNING...WITH THE COLDEST BEING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...CLOSE TO THE RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE.

THE WARMING TREND STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES LESS
AMPLIFIED...AND MORE WESTERLY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TREND
CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST IN
THE EVENING AS LIGHT SNOW MOVES INTO OUR AREA...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT SHORTLY AFTER THE
SNOW BEGINS. SNOWFALL RATES WILL LIKELY INCREASE BY THE EARLY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN TERMINALS WHERE
LIFR VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MOST OF MN BY 18Z WITH STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE...AND VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT AXN AND RWF BY THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY. NW WINDS COULD GUST UP
TO 30-35 KTS BY 18Z AT THOSE LOCATIONS WITH BLOWING SNOW...LIKELY
LEADING TO VERY POOR VISIBILITY.

KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...WITH
INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS BY THIS TIME. SOME MODELS ARE
SHOWING LIGHT SNOW STARTING AS EARLY AS 05Z...BUT DUE TO DRY AIR
PRESENT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY TO START AROUND 08Z...AND
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR ONCE THE SNOW BEGINS.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE
SNOW WILL END AROUND THIS TIME...BUT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW
AND INCREASE RAPIDLY AROUND 18Z TUESDAY. GUSTS UP TO 30-32 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 21Z-00Z...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW
AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MVFR/IFR SN LIKELY AND BLSN POSSIBLE. WINDS S 10KTS
BECOMING NW 20G30KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 15G20KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ057-058-
     065>067-073>076-082>085-091>093.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CST
     TUESDAY FOR MNZ041>044-049-050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ045-
     051>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR MNZ047-048-054>056-064.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ047-048-
     054>056-064.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR MNZ057.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
     WIZ014>016-023>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...ADL


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