Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KMPX 180828
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
328 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD AHEAD...WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER CAN BE SEEN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM CANADA.  CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SIGNIFICANT DRYING TAKING PLACE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...BUT
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND IT WILL
TAKE UNTIL THE ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COMBINED WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE TO SCATTER OUT THE CLOUD DECK FROM MID DAY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THIS UPDATE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT DELAY IN
CLEARING SKIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE SURFACE TEMPS WILL
BATTLE THIS EXTENDED SKY COVER...SO SLIGHTLY LOWERED THE FORECAST
HIGHS FOR TODAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH INITIALLY...AROUND
5-10 KTS BUT THE ELONGATE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WORK
ACROSS THE FA TODAY...SO EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF ESSENTIALLY CALM
WINDS /EARLY ACROSS THE WEST...LATER EAST/ BEFORE THEY TURN
SOUTHERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE MILD AND DRY OVERALL...AS A LARGE
SCALE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN PREVAILS FOR NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BOOKEND THE TIMEFRAME...WITH SUNDAY AND
THURSDAY APPEARING TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PROVIDE A FEW SHOWERS
DURING THE TRANSITIONS INTO AND OUT OF THE BLOCKING PATTERN.

REGARDING SUNDAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO
TREND TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE LOCAL AREA...WITH THE BETTER
MOISTURE/FORCING DISPLACED TO THE NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE
RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST NEAR
LADYSMITH...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY.

BY MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS WELL EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE WORKS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 55 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE WILL THEN BE COMMON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...A POTENT LITTLE SHORTWAVE PRESSES ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND HIGH PLAINS...AND BRINGS AN END TO THE MID LEVEL RIDGING. THE 18.00Z
ECMWF WAS FASTER WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND BROUGHT SHOWERS INTO THE
AREA AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE 18.00Z GFS WAS
ABOUT 18 HOURS SLOWER WITH THE BAND OF RAIN. LEANED TOWARD THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE AS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION....WHICH EXPANDS
PRECIPITATION EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...AND LINGERS IT ON THURSDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES ARE UNAFFECTED...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF LOW
TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD NEXT WEEK IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

SITES INITIALIZED BETWEEN LOWER-END VFR AND UPPER END MVFR
CEILINGS FOR THE 06Z TAF SET AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND A DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL LOW. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
MVFR CEILINGS SO WILL LOOK FOR ALL SITES TO DROP TO 2-3 KFT
CEILING OVERNIGHT THRU DAYBREAK TMRW. CLOUDS WILL THEN SCATTER OUT
DURG THE DAY TMRW AS HIGH PRES APPROACHES. NW TO N WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...THEN GO LGT/VRBL FOR A PERIOD DURG
THE DAY TMRW BEFORE PICKING UP LIGHTLY FROM THE SSE. NO PRECIP
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT.

KMSP...LOW-END VFR CEILINGS TO START BUT UPSTREAM UPPER-END MVFR
CEILINGS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE MSP AREA DURING THE EARLY
MRNG HRS. MVFR CEILINGS...EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 1700 FT...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH LATE MRNG SATURDAY BEFORE SCATTERING OUT AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING APPROACHES. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR OUT SATURDAY AFTN
INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE HIGHS CLOUDS RETURN. THE RIDGING WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR WIND SPEEDS TO STEADILY DIMINISH TNGT THRU TMRW...
INCLUDING GOING LGT/VRBL TMRW AFTN...BEFORE SHIFTING TO SSE LATE
TMRW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WINDS SW 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.