Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 111003
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
403 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 403 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

The band of light snow has shifted out of Minnesota but continues
across most of Wisconsin early this morning. Meanwhile upstream,
the upper low over eastern North Dakota will continue sliding
southeast this morning. A cluster of showers over west central
Minnesota will also continue propagating east southeast early this
morning. A wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow has
accompanied this activity, but it is beginning to head into a
colder atmosphere so it should transition to snow as it progresses
into central and eastern Minnesota during the next few hours.
Minor ice accumulations are possible near Alexandria, Long
Prairie, Glenwood, and possibly Little Falls. Additional snow
showers are possible with the upper low itself as it passes
overhead, but they should be scattered and light with minimal
accumulation. Drier air will filter in behind the low`s passage
with precip chances ending this afternoon.

Winds on the western side of the upper low have been strengthening
over the Dakotas. Gusts of 40-45 mph have been common. It may be
tougher to get those kinds of gusts this far east given the track
of the low. Forecast soundings have been coming down a bit with
winds aloft and there aren`t any locations in our CWA or models
showing 40+ kts within the mixed layer. Cannot rule out an
isolated occurrence near the South Dakota border or the MN river
valley, but the risk isn`t high enough to warrant a Wind
Advisory.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 403 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Overall not too much to discuss in the long term period. Northwest
flow will continue into Friday with several disturbances sliding
southeast across the region this week. The strongest appear to be
Tuesday night/Wednesday and Friday/Friday evening. In both cases,
the highest accumulating snow potential will be across northern MN
into northern/central WI and the Great Lakes. Otherwise, mostly
cloudy conditions with occasional flurries and near normal
temperatures can be expected.

The pattern could change next weekend and early the following week
with the ridge out west breaking down and the flow across the
CONUS becoming more zonal. This will open the door for more
substantial waves to come ashore the Pacific Northwest. It will
also mean above normal temps heading through the middle of
December.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1106 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

Few changes made to 00z TAFs with incoming clipper. Still used a
blend of the HRRR/LAV to bring this snow in. Expect primarily VFR
conditions outside of the snowband until the arctic front comes
through, which will provide us with MVFR and pockets of IFR in the
CAA in its wake. Forecast soundings also show it being quite
breezy with some 40kt gust potential, so did go a few kts above
LAV guidance for winds.

KMSP...Confidence is high in only p-type we will deal with is
snow, and it will happen for all but 3 hours early in the 6z TAF
period. Wind gust potential in the afternoon is up around 35 kts.
We`ll start clearing out the clouds in the afternoon, but as
usual, confidence a bit low on timing on when improvements to VFR
will occur.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Tue...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
Wed...MVFR with chc -SN. Wind SE 5 kts mrng, NW aftn 10-15 kts.
Thu...Chc MVFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...MPG


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