Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 020343
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1043 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WERE IN THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AND A WINDOW
OF 2 TO 4 HOURS WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL GET COLD ENOUGH ACROSS
THE NORTH FOR FROST. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY
DESPITE THE SHORT WINDOW FOR FROST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 70 AWAY
FROM THE BAY AND LAKE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

A BATTLE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE
PART OF THE WEEK. OVERALL THE MODELS SEEM TO PUSH THE FRONT INTO
THE WESTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY...THEN HALT ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY UNTIL A SECOND PIECE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRACKS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE STILL IN POOR AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT AS IT TRACKS
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL
GOING SO FAR AS DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW THAT TRACKS THROUGH
WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY. WHILE THIS SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER
IT IS TOO SOON TO COMPLETELY DISCARD IT AS THE SHORTWAVE IN
QUESTION HAS NOT YET BEEN SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK.

DESPITE THE TENUOUS FORECAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND NICELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO +10 TO +15 CELSIUS DURING THE MIDDLE
TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO RISE
INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN ON SATURDAY
AS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA DURING THE WEEKEND...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEAR WATCHING AS
IT APPROACHES GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED PV
ANOMALY TRACKING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS.



RDM.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......RDM


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