Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 032221
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
521 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TODAY IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. CIRRUS
SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WELL AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. WAS CONCERNED THAT SOME HAIL WOULD DEVELOP TODAY DUE
TO THE LOW WET BULB ZERO AND FREEZING LEVELS SEEN ON THE 12Z GRB
AND INL SOUNDINGS. THE SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWED STEEP LAPSE RATES
ABOVE THE SURFACE INVERSION. ONCE THE INVERSION BURNED OFF CUMULUS
DEVELOPED IN LOCATIONS WITHOUT CLOUD COVER...AS SURFACE TO 1.5KM
LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INCREASED INTO THE 8.5 TO
10.5C/KM RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS. 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS HAD MUCAPE
VALUES OF 600-800J/KG IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN AT 00Z SO THUNDER
REMAINS POSSIBLE AND HAS BEEN KEPT IN THE FORECAST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT DURING THE NIGHT BUT MODELS DID
HAVE SOME QPF IN FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN
SO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES POPS INTO WEDNESDAY. MENTIONED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN
WHERE THE AIR MASS WILL BE COLDER.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE A BIG WARMUP FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...PCPN TRENDS WITH A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
AND A WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON WEDS NGT...WITH LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND A DRY AIR MASS PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FROST OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS MAINLY DRY...THOUGH STRONG WAA
COULD EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE ADDING A SMALL CHC OF TSTMS LATE
THU INTO THU NGT. A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 60S ON THURSDAY...AND UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. THE FRONT IS TIMING THROUGH FASTER THAN INDICATED THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS...AND WILL BE MOVG THROUGH DURING THE LEAST UNSTABLE
TIME OF DAY...SO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE LOW.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A H8 WARM
FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO WILL HOLD OFF POPS UNTIL MONDAY...
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF TSTMS OCCURRING ON TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 520 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED STORMS WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER THE
REGION THIS EVENING. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT VFR CIGS AND
VSBYS...A FEW OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BRIEFLY
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS EVENING. THE
PRECIPITATION WAS ALONG AND NEAR A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD
OVER THE AREA. NORTHERN RADARS ALSO INDICATE A BAND OF STRONGER
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WERE TRAILING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
AND ALONG THE 850 COLD FRONT. THIS TRAILING BAND MAY HAVE THE
BETTER POTENTIAL OF SMALL HAIL AND THEREFORE WILL KEEP TSRA IN THE
TAFS A BIT LONGER THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT A PERIOD OF LOWER END VFR OR HIGHER END MVFR
DIURNAL CIGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......



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