Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 210442

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1042 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Wednesday
Issued at 230 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Light rain was moving across the Fox Valley and east- central
Wisconsin early this afternoon. This precipitation was associated
with a much broader area of rain that stretched down across
southeast Wisconsin and Illinois and was being supported by an
upper jet. Road conditions within this band improved as road and
air temperature rose above freezing. Do not expect additional
impacts from any rain here through the afternoon. Further north
patchy drizzle or freezing drizzle may linger through the
afternoon. Temperatures are in the upper 20s here and drivers are
more likely to encounter some slippery stretches, especially on
secondary roads, but the overall trend will be for improving
conditions by evening. Cancelled Winter Weather Advisory for the
remainder of the area due to these improvements.

System will move east of Wisconsin this evening which will allow
for high pressure to build in at the surface. This combined with
CAA mean skies will gradually clear out tonight. Stuck with a
blend of the best performing guidance for lows, which brings
readings into the 5 to 13 degree range across central and north-
central Wisconsin, and the 14 to to 21 range across east- central

Surface high pressure will move across Wisconsin tomorrow, which
will yield a clear and quiet day. Temps will be cooler, however,
with highs in the lower 20s across central Wisconsin, and in the
middle to upper 20 across northeast and east- central Wisconsin.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Tuesday
Issued at 230 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

A quiet start Wednesday night into Thursday as high pressure
drifts across the mid section of the country. An potentially
more active pattern starts later Thursday and continues into the
weekend due to developing southwest flow aloft.

The next chance of precipitation will be toward Thursday night
into Friday as a surface trough slides across the state. Possible
combination of isent lift in concert with the RRQ region of the
upper jet may provide decent lift for another round of
precipitation. Some trend of the better upper jet dynamics
shifting south, focusing the best lift south of the area. The
temperature profile supports a turn to a freezing type mix by
Friday morning across at least the south half of the forecast area
until temperatures warm later Friday and or the system departs.

Another high pressure area passes over the area Friday into
Saturday before another system may impact the Western Great Lakes
region Saturday night into Sunday. This second system is
associated with a strong short wave trough progged to eject from
the southwest states. GFS is more robust with a deep 850 mb low
tracking over southeast Wisconsin while the ecmwf tracks an 850 mb
low over central Wisconsin. Upper jet progs for this time period
indicate a possible couplet region. Snow looks like the dominate
type of precipitation but a mix is possible again over east
central Wisconsin and areas south.

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1041 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Low clouds are starting to clear from the west, though high-level
clouds with the baroclinic zone will continue to stream overhead.
Expect good flight conditions once the low clouds clear later



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