Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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257
FXUS63 KGRB 072334
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
534 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

REGION RADAR MOSAICS SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF SNOW MOVING INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED A MID LEVEL CYCLONE AROUND THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE 500MB LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH MOST/ALL OF WISCONSIN
TONIGHT AS A WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
SURFACE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN.
SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS THESE FEATURES PASS...AND ONCE
THEY DO SO THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AS COLDER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEMS.

STILL EXPECT A RATHER LONG PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH MONDAY
WITH SOME ACCUMULATION. HAVE LEFT THE ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR VILAS
COUNTY BUT SNOW TOTALS APPEAR BORDERLINE AND AM NOT SURE WINDS
THERE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUCH BLOWING SNOW. WILL
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

EASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY BROAD TROUGH THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REMAINING IN NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. OCCASIONAL PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN CONUS BUT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE FEATURES STILL
UNCERTAIN. WITH EXCEPTION OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR SNOW BELT
REGION...ANY PRECIPTATION DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

BY 00Z TUESDAY...PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO BE SITUATED
SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH ELONGATED AND
NEGATIVELY TILTED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM LAKE
ONTARIO NORTHWESTWARD TO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY AND MEANDER
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE PRIMARY UPPER CIRCULATION WILL LEAD
TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.
STILL EXPECTING MAYBE ANOTHER INCH OF SNOW OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FOX VALLEY WHERE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. IN ADDITION...PRESSURE
GRADIENT FORECAST TO TIGHTEN MONDAY EVENING AND REMAIN RELATIVELY
STRONG INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.THUS SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF
THE NEWLY FALLEN SNOW SEEMS LIKELY ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

MEANWHILE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE ONGOING OVER
VILAS COUNTY WITH AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE BY
TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY OF THE LES BANDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR AND
MORE ROBUST SUBSIDENCE WORK INTO THAT REGION. FORECAST TRAJECTORIES
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT
LES ACTIVITY OVER VILAS COUNTY EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY BUT ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED TO BE MINOR BY THEN. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER EXTENDING THE
ADVISORY FOR VILAS COUNTY BEYOND MONDAY EVENING. WILL LET
SUBSEQUENT SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THAT POSSIBILITY.

WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN SUGGESTED
BY THE ECMWF FOR LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...CHARACTERIZED BY DEEPER
TROUGH HOLDING FIRM OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WOULD TEND
TO SHUN ANY FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS TO SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

TAKING A PEAK AT LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IT APPEARS AMPLIFIED
PATTERN MAY START TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND
ALLOWING FOR A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...AND PERHAPS A WEAK
SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA AROUND SUNDAY. IN THE MEANTIME DAILY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS LIKELY NOT TO CLIMB OUT OF THE TEENS AFTER
TUESDAY. COLDEST MORNING STILL APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY WITH SURFACE
RIDGE NEARBY...LIGHTER WINDS AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MVFR CIGS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY SPREAD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATER THIS EVENING...WITH SOME IFR
CIGS. AN APPROACHING 500MB LOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP
TO SPREAD SNOW AND AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT. VEERING WINDS WILL RESULT IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI



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