Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 300852
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
352 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN WISCONSIN THROUGH 14Z TODAY. IT/S BASICALLY FOR AREAS
WHERE THERE IS LESS WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ALSO THE REGION
THAT RECEIVED MORE RAIN LAST WEEK. IT SHOULD LIFT AN HOUR OR TWO
AFTER SUNRISE. HIGHS TODAY MAY BE A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN WHAT
WE FORECASTED EARLIER DUE TO LOW CLOUDS EARLY TODAY AND ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE EXTENSIVE SMOKE OUT TO OUR WEST DRIFTS IN.

THINK FOG WILL BE LESS OF AN ISSUE TONIGHT DUE TO MORE WINDS BELOW
925MB AND MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS DECK THAN FOG IF THERE ARE ANY
CLOUDS. MONDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN THE AVERAGE MID SUMMER DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A MOSTLY QUIET AND WARM PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND THANKS TO STRONG SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGING.  THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE GOOD AGREEMENT...SO WILL USE A
BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES EAST
ACROSS MINNESOTA...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS ALL OF WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT.  PROGGED SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY
AND THERE IS A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT...SO TOUGH TO TELL IF THERE
IS A GREATER FOG OR LOW STRATUS THREAT.  THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS
MIXED...SO WILL ADD FOG TO THE FORECAST...AS WELL AS INCREASE SKY
COVER SOME.  THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER FAR NW WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY
BEFORE RETURNING NORTH ON TUESDAY NIGHT.  WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.  TOUGH TO IDENTIFY ANY
FORCING FOR RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT.  A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE
PLAINS LOOKS TOO FAR SOUTHWEST FOR MUCH OF AN IMPACT...AND ANOTHER
WAVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL EXIT EARLY IN THE NIGHT. SO WILL BACK
OFF PRECIP CHANCES. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ON TUE...AND LOWS IN THE
60S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THAT SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS MOVES INTO THE
REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND LINGERS INTO THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THIS TIME WILL BE DRY...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO RULE OUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS.  THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REASSERT
ITSELF ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  MODELS SPIT OUT LIGHT PRECIP...BUT
THINK PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW GIVEN THE BUILDING HEIGHTS AND WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT.  THEN A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING AN END TO THE ABOVE NORMAL
WARMTH AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES ALSO.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT
SOUTHWARD OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE
THIS EVENING. AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG ALONG WITH POCKETS OF
LIFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER AREAS JUST NORTH
OF THIS AREA OF MVFR CIGS. ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN...VFR
CONDITIONS WERE NOTED. STILL EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO
FOG AND PATCHY IFR/LIFR VSBYS DUE OT FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
PERSIST SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
ON SUNDAY WILL EVENTUALLY IMPROVE CONDITIONS TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ020>022-
031-037>040-045-048>050-073-074.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......TDH



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