Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 301706
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1206 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

RAIN GRADUALLY ENDING TODAY...OTHERWISE MUCH COLDER THIS WEEKEND.

A BROAD BAND OF WESTERLIES WL REMAIN ACRS THE NRN CONUS AND CANADA
DURING THE FCST PERIOD...SPLITTING INTO SEPARATE STREAMS AT TIMES.
RIDGING WILL PROGRESS ACRS SRN CANADA AND THE NRN CONUS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BRINGING QUIETER WX TO THE FCST AREA. THE RIDGE WL
SHIFT TO OUR E BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WK AS AN UPR TROF FORMS ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THAT SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE WX.

TEMPS WL START OUT WELL BELOW NORMAL...THEN WARM BACK TO AOA NORMAL
FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. ONCE THE RAIN ENDS
TDA...DRY WX IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BUT THE
PATTERN LOOKS PRETTY ACTIVE THEREAFTER...SO PCPN AMNTS FOR THE
PERIOD MAY STILL END UP AOA NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

A SERIES OF FRONTAL WAVES WL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT
CROSSED THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST WL SHIFT ACRS SRN WI THIS
MORNING. A SECOND MUCH STRONGER CYCLONE WL DEVELOP OVER SRN IL
THIS AFTN THEN LIFT INTO NW OHIO BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY. THE FIRST
WV WL SLOW THE EWD MVMT OF THE PCPN...WITH RAIN LIKELY TAKING
UNTIL AT LEAST MID-DAY TO EXIT E-C WI. N-NE WINDS WILL USHER MUCH
COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA...MAKING FOR A RAW MORNING OVER E-C WI.
ELSEWHERE...CLDS WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WL SHIFT OUT OF THE
AREA...BUT SOME CU WL PROBABLY DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING...AND
CLDS FM SRN CANADA COULD WORK INTO THE N.

THE SECOND WV RUNNING UP THE FRONT WL KEEP WINDS UP ACRS MOST OF
THE AREA TNGT...AND PWATS WL ACTUALLY REMAIN QUITE HIGH OVER ALL
BUT FAR N-C WI. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT PROBABLY DROPS OFF ENOUGH TO
ALLOW WINDS TO DIE OFF OVER THE FAR N...AND AT LEAST THE TYPICAL
COLD SPOTS THERE WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE FREEZING TEMPS. TO THE S
AND E HOWEVER...THE LINGERING LGT WIND IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR FROST
FORMATION. FROM A STRICTLY SCIENCE VIEWPOINT...PROBABLY SHOULD
HAVE JUST HAD A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE FAR N. HOWEVER...WE ARE NOW
WELL INTO THE GROWING SEASON...AND ABSOLUTELY DID NOT WANT TO
HAVE A FROST OR FREEZE OCCUR OUTSIDE OF A HEADLINE. SO OPTED TO
BUFFER THE FZ.W WITH A FR.Y...AND EXPRESSED THE MARGINAL
POSSIBILITY OF FROST IN THE NPW WORDING.

IT WL STILL BE BLUSTERY IN ERN WI SUNDAY. THERE WL BE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...BUT TEMPS WL STILL BE QUITE COOL /8-12F DEBG BLO
NORMAL/.

COOL TEMPERATURES AND PCPN PRECLUDED THE ISSUANCE OF A BEACH
HAZARD STATEMENT DESPITE A HIGH SWIM RISK.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERN INITIALLY TO BE ON FROST POTENTIAL FOR NRN WI
SUNDAY NGT AS TEMPS DIP ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 30S. A GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPS IS THEN EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS WINDS EVENTUALLY
TURN TO THE SOUTH. LATER CONCERNS FOCUS ON PCPN TRENDS FOR MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK AS THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE.

ANOTHER RATHER CHILLY NGT EXPECTED ACROSS NE WI SUNDAY NGT AS THE
SFC HI REMAINS PARKED IN PLACE FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES NEWD INTO
SE CANADA. WHILE 8H TEMPS CREEP UP TO AROUND +4C BY 12Z MON...BOTH
SFC AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WL BE LIGHTER COMPARED TO SAT NGT.
THEREFORE...ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO BE A FEW DEGS WARMER NORTH/FEW
DEGS COOLER SOUTH THAN SAT NGT WHICH WOULD BRING MINS INTO THE LWR
TO MID 30S NORTH...UPR 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGS SOUTH. POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER FROST HEADLINE IN THE NORTH LOOKS LIKELY...BUT WL NOT
ISSUE IT NOW DUE TO THE INITIAL FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES CURRENTLY
IN EFFECT FOR SAT NGT. NOT MUCH CHANGES HEADED INTO MON WITH THE
SFC HI STILL OVER THE GREAT LAKES...SO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH AN
E-SE WIND IS EXPECTED. 8H TEMPS CONT TO SLOWLY WARM (UP TO +6C)...
THUS MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE MID TO UPR 60S EXCEPT
FRO AROUND 60 DEGS NEAR LAKE MI.

HI PRES REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES MON NGT WITH THE
ONLY DIFFERENCE BEING SOME HI CLOUDS WHICH MAY DRIFT TOWARD CNTRL
WI FROM WAA-INDUCED PCPN WELL TO OUR WEST. MIN TEMPS SHOULD NOT BE
AS COOL AS PREVIOUS NGTS DUE TO 8H TEMPS RESIDING AROUND +8C AND A
MORE SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WIND. LOOK FOR READINGS TO RANGE
FROM AROUND 40 DEGS FAR NE WI...TO THE MID 40S OVER CNTRL/E-CNTRL
WI. THE SFC HI FINALLY BEGINS TO SLIDE TO THE EAST TOWARD THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUE...BUT REMAIN THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
FOR NE WI. MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MODERATING
TEMPS TO BE THE RULE. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
LAKESIDE...UPR 60S TO LWR 70S ELSEWHERE.

FCST BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AND MUDDLED HEADED INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE MODELS ARE HAVING ISSUES WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAST
THE SFC HI DEPARTS AND HOW MUCH UPR RIDGING TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE
E-CNTRL CONUS. A QUICKER SFC HI DEPARTURE/FLATTER UPR PATTERN AS
ADVERTISED BY THE GEM COULD BRING A CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS INTO WI AS
EARLY AS TUE EVENING. A SLOWER SFC HI DEPARTURE/MORE UPR RIDGING
AS ADVERTISED BY THE GFS WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE FCST AREA DRY
UNTIL WED NGT. HARD TO DETERMINE AT THIS JUNCTURE WHICH TREND IS
CORRECT...THUS HAVE USED A COMPROMISE SOLUTION THAT WL BRING A CHC
OF SHWRS/TSTMS TO NRN AND CNTRL WI TUE NGT AND THEN ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA ON WED ASSOCIATED WITH A NWD MOVING WRMFNT/
STRONGEST ISEN LIFT. MAX TEMPS ON WED ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
IN THE LWR TO MID 70S...COOLER AGAIN NEAR LAKE MI.

CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS WL CONT WED NGT THRU THU AS THE WRMFNT REACHES
THE GREAT LAKES AND ACTS AS THE PRIMARY FOCAL POINT FOR ADDITIONAL
PCPN. FURTHERMORE...SOME OF THE MODELS ALSO BRING SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES RIDING E-NE THRU THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT. A PREVAILING
SOUTH WIND WL ALSO TAP GULF MOISTURE...SENDING DEW POINTS INTO THE
UPR 50S TO LWR 60S BY THU AFTERNOON. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THEN
PERSIST THRU FRI AS A CDFNT PUSHES INTO/THRU WI...ACCOMPANIED BY A
MODEST SHORTWAVE TROF TO ADD SOME MID-LEVEL FORCING. TEMPS ARE
FCST TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THRU FRI...ALTHO DAILY MAX TEMP FCST
TO BE TRICKY WITH THE PCPN IN THE VCNTY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

AVIATION CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE FM NNW-SSE THIS
AFTERNOON AS PCPN IN THE FRONTAL BAND PULLS AWAY FM THE AREA.
OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS IN E-C WI...GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 300 AM TO 800 AM SUNDAY
WIZ005-010>012-018-

FROST ADVISORY FROM 300 AM TO 800 AM SUNDAY
WIZ013-019-021-030-
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI



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