Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 110328
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1028 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

SFC HIGH PRESS RIDGE MOVES ACROSS REGION TONIGHT BRINGING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS AS DECOUPLING OCCURS.

SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW SLIDES OVER THE STATE. COVERAGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE. WHILE CAN`T ENTIRELY RULE OUT
ISOLD TSTORM WITH MODERATELY UNSTABLE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...CHANCE
TOO SMALL AT THIS POINT TO KEEP IN FORECAST.

TEMP FORECAST A BLEND OF THE BEST PERFORMING MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE PCPN TRENDS WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

EXPECT MANINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING S/W TROF
FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW MODELS BRING SOME PCPN INTO OUR NW COUNTIES
LATE...DUE TO A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WAA...BUT
WILL FOLLOW THE DRY GFS/ECMWF FOR NOW.

PCPN WILL RAMP UP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A 40-50 KT LLJ WILL
PULL A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. H8 DEW
POINTS WILL INCREASE TO 8 TO 10 C...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
TOPPING AN INCH (AROUND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL). H8 LI`S OF 0 TO -3
WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE REGION...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ELEVATED
TSTMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL...ESPECIALLY OVER C/EC
WI.

THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NW TO SE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT EDGES EAST AND
THE DYNAMIC FORCING WEAKENS. HOWEVER...A COUPLED UPPER JET...DEEP
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND THE APPROACH OF A SFC WAVE ON
THE FRONT WILL CAUSE PCPN TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER MUCH OF THE FCST
AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN TYPE WILL BECOME AN ISSUE
AS INCREASING NORTH WINDS BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE FCST AREA. THE
ECMWF HOLDS ONTO SOME SIGNIFICANT PCPN OVER NE/EC WI AS THE COLD
AIR ARRIVES DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER EASTERN WI LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE MONDAY MORNING
COMMUTE. THE SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

AN UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO MIDWEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...FALL TO MUCH BLO NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY MODERATE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FRONT
COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY DURING THE MIDDAY AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS BUT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

HAVE ISSUED AN ESF TO COVER THE INCREASED FLOODING POTENTIAL
DUE TO SNOW MELT AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND. GRADUAL
RISES DUE TO RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OVER NORTHERN
WI...AND 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI WILL
GREATLY INCREASE THE FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......RDM
HYDROLOGY......KIECKBUSCH






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