Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGRB 112044
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
244 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN WHILE CLOUDS WERE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO -25C TO
-28C ACROSS MUCH OF WISCONSIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TRICKY TONIGHT DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE
EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF THE CLOUDS ALONG WITH INCREASINGS WINDS
ALOFT. TREND TOWARD THE THREE HOURLY TEMPERATURES ON THE MET/MAV
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE ON THE
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN
THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY FALL LATE IN THE DAY. WIND CHILLS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WILL BE AROUND 20 BELOW ZERO BY SUNSET. WINDS TURNS ARE
VERY FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. MAIN CONCERN FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE THE VERY DRY AIR. WILL HAVE AROUND AN INCH OR SO
FOR VILAS COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE PRIMARY THINGS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE
PROSPECT FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SOME LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY.
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS LOOK LIKELY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AIR TEMPERATURES FALL WELL BELOW ZERO WITH WINDS OF 10 MPH OR
MORE. SUBZERO TEMPS ARE LIKELY AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WITH NOT
MUCH WIND.

TWO UPPER JETS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN CANADA AND
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. THE UPPER SUPPORT IS DISORGANIZED AND
THERE IS NO GULF MOISTURE. BUT DECENT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
AND INITIAL VERY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW
WITH A HIGH SNOW TO WATER RATIO. 1 TO 3 INCHES LOOK LIKELY AT THIS
POINT.

MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE FORECASTING SNOW FOR TUESDAY DIFFICULT
RIGHT NOW. THERE SHOULDN/T BE MUCH MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THAT ONE
AND THE BEST DYNAMICS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. LATER TONIGHT...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING MVFR
CIGS AT TIMES TO MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AS VERY
COLD AIR WILL FLOW OFF THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. ON FRIDAY...SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY ACTIVITY
WILL MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS KGRB/KATW/KMTW LATE FRIDAY MORNING
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WHICH MAY GUST TO CLOSE TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES ACROSS EASTERN
WISCONSIN LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BITTER COLD
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......ECKBERG


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.