Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 010333
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1033 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

DRY WEATHER HAS RETURNED TO NE WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
LAST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVED INTO LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE STATE. WAS RELUCTANT TO HAVE CLEAR SKIES
AS MODELS SHOW RESIDUAL UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...AND CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE COLD SPOTS IN
NORTHERN WISCONSIN POSSIBLE FALLING JUST UNDER 40
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUD HAPPEN TO CLEAR OUT. PATCHY FOG
LOOKS LESS LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS MUCH OF THE AREA HAS SEEN DRIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED CONDITIONS. WITH LESS MOISTURE...PLUS
SOME CLOUDS AND STRONGER WINDS THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS JUST ABOVE
THE SFC...FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD STAY UNDER CONTROL.

A SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE EXITING SYSTEM TO OUR EAST MAY
CAUSE THICKER CLOUD COVER TO BRUSH LAKESHORE LOCATIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES STATES ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AS CAA CONTINUES OVER NE WI AND MODELS
SHOW 850MB TEMPS DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY. TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER
SOLUTIONS FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH MATCHED WELL WITH THE LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST PART OF LONG TERM
BUT SOME FLATTENING OF FLOW FORECAST AS TROF MOVES INTO WESTERN
THEN CENTRAL CANADA.

SUNDAY NGT INTO MON APPEARS TO BE THE TIME PERIOD FOR NEXT BEST
CHC OF PRECIP AS CANADIAN TROF MOVES TOWARD WESTERN LAKES. TIMING
OF SYSTEM AND SURFACE REFLECTION STILL UNCERTAIN DURING THIS
PERIOD...GFS IS FASTER THAN ECMWF...SO WILL CONTINUE MEDIUM
CHANCE POPS FOR LATER SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY.

TEMPS THRU PERIOD A BLEND OF BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE BUT ADJUSTED
UP A BIT AROUND WATERS OF GREEN BAY/DOOR COUNTY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MVFR CLOUDS LINGERED NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN LATE THIS EVENING...BUT
SHOULD GRADUALLY PULL OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...LEAVING MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
ANTICIPATED DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMP AND DEW POINT SPREADS ARE GETTING SMALL OVER NC WI...BENEATH
THE SFC HIGH...SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN FOG DEVELOPMENT
THERE. WILL ADD A TEMPO GROUP WITH IFR VSBYS AT RHI. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD FOG TO THE OTHER TAF SITES RIGHT NOW.

ASIDE FROM THE MVFR CIGS NEAR THE LAKESHORE EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD...AND PATCHY FOG IN NC WI OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......JKL
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH



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