Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 271111

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
611 AM CDT THU OCT 27 2016

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Friday
Issued at 341 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Wrap around moisture continues to bring light rain and drizzle to
the forecast area early this morning. This activity will slowly
end from west to east as the low responsible for the activity
pulls out of the region. The area where rain will hang around the
longest will be across the eastern areas where easterly winds will
pick up some moisture from Lake Michigan. Current radar imagery
shows this effect already in play across the lakeshore counties.

A surface high will bring drier air into the area this afternoon,
however abundant moisture will keep skies mostly cloudy across the
western Great Lakes. Another day with highs below normal will
occur as highs are only in the 40s.

The high will track east tonight, as a weak low tracks across the
northern Great Lakes region on Friday. Although rain chances will
be mainly north of the cwa on Friday, some rain could sneak in
across the extreme northern cwa. The rain chances will be
secondary to the winds expected on Friday as the pressure gradient
increases precipitously across the western Great Lakes region.
Southerly winds will increase to 25 to 30 mph across east-central
Wisconsin, with gusts of 35 to 40 mph possible along the lakeshore
with unabated flow off Lake Michigan. The southerly winds will
also bring a much warmer airmass into the western Great Lakes as
temperatures warm to well above normal levels.

Lows tonight will range from the middle 30s across the north, with
lows around 40 across the south. Highs Friday will increase to the
middle to upper 50s across the north, with highs around 60 across
central and east-central Wisconsin.

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Wednesday
Issued at 341 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

The latest gfs ensemble mean continues to indicate that above normal
heights will prevail across the center of the conus through the
period. But shortwave impulses look to eject out of the eastern
Pacific trough, and create periodic precip chances.  The medium
range models have finally come into better agreement with the
sensible weather this weekend.  Still significant timing differences
exist early next week, but a blend of the gfs/ecmwf should mitigate
some of these differences.

Friday night through Saturday night...Low pressure will be traveling
over Lake Superior on Friday night, and drag a weak Pacific front
across the state.  Though there may be some low clouds along this
front, there is a large dry wedge in the mid-levels, which makes a
precip threat doubtful.  Will therefore remove any precip chances.
Then as a polar front drops into the region on Saturday, precip is
anticipated to redevelop with additional forcing via a right front
quad of a jet streak and mid-level fgen ahead of a weak shortwave
impulse.  It looks like the better chances of precip will occur over
central and east-central WI during the afternoon and evening. Precip
should pull out overnight as colder air invades the region from the

Rest of the forecast...High pressure briefly builds into the region
on Sunday, providing at least one day of quiet weather.  This
changes quickly on Monday when low pressure travels northwest of the
region.  A chance of precip will accompany the low, mainly over
north-central WI, but the system should bring gusty south winds on
Monday and gusty west winds on Monday night and Tuesday.  Another
brief quiet period is possible into the middle of next week.


A departing low pressure system will bring high winds and waves to
the Lake Michigan nearshore waters early this morning before
subsiding later today. Given the onshore flow it appears waves
will stay high through much of the morning, therefore will extend
the small craft advisory through 15Z this morning.

After a brief period of lighter winds later today and tonight,
winds and waves will once again increase Friday and Friday night
as a low pressure system tracks across the northern Great Lakes.
Winds could approach gale force for a few hours Friday afternoon
and Friday evening. However will hold off on any Gale headlines as
the window appears fairly small for Gale force winds. Small craft
conditions will certainly be met with headlines issued in
subsequent forecasts.


.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 610 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Despite light rain ending early this morning, abundant low level
moisture will keep clouds at LIFR/MVFR levels with a few locations
down to IFR. A ridge of high pressure building in from the west
will improve conditions to lower end VFR by the afternoon hours.
Conditions could once again drop to MVFR later tonight as another
low pressure system approaches from the west.



SHORT TERM.....Kurimski
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