000
FXUS63 KGRB 270836
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
336 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Friday
Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Some morning fog is expected across the area, with patches of
dense fog given the recent rainfall combined with light winds and
mostly clear skies. This fog is expected to burn off a few hours
after sunrise, giving way to mostly sunny skies later this morning.
Mostly sunny skies will be short lived as a vigorous mid level
shortwave tracks through the western Great Lakes during the
afternoon and evening hours. This shortwave will bring clouds and
the chance for some isolated showers. The main element preventing
more widespread activity will be a mid level warm layer around 600
mb which will inhibit the vertical growth of these showers. The
stunted vertical growth should also prevent thunderstorms from
developing, however they are not out of the question if the storms
can overcome this mid level warm layer.

Dry weather is then expected for the rest of the overnight hours
into Friday as high pressure builds in across the western Great
Lakes region. Some patchy fog is once again possible later
tonight, however it should mainly be limited to the far north
given the lower temperatures and lighter winds. Temperatures
during this period will be right around climatological normal for
this time of year.

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Wednesday
Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Western ridge at 500mb will continue to dominate the weather pattern
through the period with a west/northwest flow aloft across the
western Great Lakes region. Temperatures should remain near or slightly
above normal through much of the period. A few cool nights are
expected Friday night and Saturday night where temperatures in the
typical cold spots across the north could drop into the middle
and upper 40s.

As for precipitation chances, models continue to flip flop on
small chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday
night with return flow. Will leave a dry forecast for now until
models come into better agreement if there would be rain along
with when and where it would occur.

A system dropping southward into the region could bring a chance
of showers and thunderstorms Monday. It appears there will be a
better chance of showers and storms Tuesday night into Wednesday
as a cold front drops southward across the area. Did make minor
adjustments to account for typical warm spots during the day and
cold spots at night.
&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1012 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Scattered showers along a cold front will exit the region during
the early overnight hours. Behind the front, clearing skies are
expected from north to south. Patchy dense ground fog could form
late tonight over central, north-central, and far northeast WI.
It would likely dissipate by 14z Thursday. After a short period
of clear conditions once any fog burns off, clouds will build
again by midday, with isolated showers developing during the
afternoon. Coverage does not appear widespread enough to include
in the tafs at this time.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....Kurimski
LONG TERM......Eckberg
AVIATION.......MPC