Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 191104
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
504 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Monday
Issued at 254 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Light lake effect snow showers will continue to diminish across
far north-central Wisconsin this morning as high pressure builds
in across the western Great Lakes region. This high will bring dry
and quiet weather for the second half of the weekend and into next
week. The main weather concern will be clouds today and tonight.
Although skies are expected to clear from west to east this
morning, another batch of clouds across the Dakotas is slated to
arrive later this afternoon and this evening. This batch of clouds
will then move out later tonight, bringing mostly clear skies to
the region after midnight. Temperatures today are expected to
range from the middle 20s across the north, with highs around 30
across central and east- central Wisconsin. Lows tonight will
range from around 20 across the north, with lower to middle 20s
farther south.

Southerly winds and mostly sunny skies will cause fairly warm
temperatures to start the work week as highs climb into the 40s
across the region as the aforementioned high pressure system
tracks to the east. These highs will be a good 5 degrees above
normal for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Saturday
Issued at 254 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Tranquil pattern expected into Thanksgiving Day with respect to
precipitation chances. There is a chance of lake effect snow
showers across far northern Wisconsin, mainly Vilas County
Tuesday into Tuesday night as low level winds turn to the
northwest behind a cold front. A light accumulation of snow
is possible, especially across the snowbelt region of Vilas
County. High temperatures on Tuesday should be some 5 to 10
degrees colder than Monday. Also, increasing southerly winds
may bring breezy/windy conditions to the area Monday night
through Tuesday.

For the upcoming holiday travel period, clouds will be on the
increase during the day Wednesday with highs in the upper 20s
to middle 30s at most places. The latest model runs tonight now
suggest that there may be a little light snow across northern
Wisconsin Wednesday night. This is a new development from the
previous model runs, thus will wait at least one more model run
before adding it to the forecast. For Thanksgiving Day, it will
be a fairly nice day temperature wise with highs in the upper 20s
to middle 30s.

Warmer conditions are expected on Friday with highs in the 30s
to middle 40s. The next cold front swings across the region on
Friday into Friday night. The GFS/Canadian models keep most of the
precipitation across the north. However, the 00z ECMWF model run
tonight was more aggressive with precipitation across the entire
area. Will wait and see if the models converge on a certain
solution before increasing/changing chances of precipitation. If
precipitation does occur, probably would be in the form of rain
and snow since boundary layer temperatures will be well above
freezing on Friday into Friday evening. Low confidence in the
Saturday forecast, thus no changes at this time.
&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 504 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Ceilings were generally MVFR or VFR this morning, ranging from
2-4k ft. Skies will clear through the morning as drier air advects
into the region, causing conditions to improve to VFR. Scattered
lake-effect snow showers or flurries will end this morning as this
drier air advects in. Another batch of clouds will arrive later
this afternoon, with skies becoming mostly clear late tonight.
Gusty northwest to west winds will continue until later this
afternoon.
&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 254 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Gusty northwest winds will continue early this morning. A few
gale force gusts are possible before winds slowly diminish later
this morning. A small craft advisory remains in effect for the
nearshore waters through early this afternoon when winds and waves
fall below small craft criteria.

Winds and waves will pick up once again early in the work week as
a low pressure system tracks to the north. Gale force gusts are
possible Monday night and Tuesday as a cold front tracks through
the western Great Lakes region.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....Kurimski
LONG TERM......Eckberg
AVIATION.......Kurimski
MARINE.........Kurimski


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