Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 022317
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
617 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE SURFACE HIGH THAT BROUGHT PLEASANT WEATHER TO THE AREA THE
PAST FEW DAYS WILL SLIP OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS WINDS
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE LIGHTEST.

SKIES SHOULD START OUT SUNNY FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES. KEPT A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR WITH DEWPOINTS A LITTLE HIGHER BUT COMFORTABLE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD THE PRIMARY FOCUS.

PROGS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH A WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SETTLING OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE ON
SATURDAY. THE FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION INCLUDING THE NORTHEAST THIRD
OF THE STATE. BEST HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
BEST PCPN CHANCES OVER THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST. ISSUE FOR SATURDAY
CENTERS ON AMOUNT OF CONVECTION WHICH CAN DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT
AS UPPER HEIGHTS ON THE INCREASE. PCPN WHICH CAN DEVELOP WILL BE
ISOLATED AND LIKELY SLOW MOVING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE BUT IN THE
REGION OF PWATS NEAR 1.20.

THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND/OR DIMINISHES TOWARD SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM AND DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. SOME PROGS DO INDICATE A WEAK SHORT WAVE DRIFTING INTO
THE STATE ON SUNDAY...BUT WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY DUE TO THIS
WAVE OUTRUNS THE STRONGER WARM AIR RETURN TO THE WEST.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH A STRONG TROUGH TRACKING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE PASSING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A BLEND OF THE MODEL
RUN TIMING INDICATES THIS TROUGH WILL SLIDE A COLD FRONT OVER THE
AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A TAD SLOWER TREND THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING TIME...THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TIMING MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG STORMS...AND
WILL NEED TO MONITORED THIS WEEKEND. GFS IS GENERATING SB CAPES OF
NEAR 1200 J/KG WHILE PWATS APPROACH 2.00 AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE NEXT
WEEK FOR THE NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...RESULTING
IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. HAVE OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE
ANY FOG IN THE TAFS FOR TONIGHT...AS LITTLE FOG OCCURRED LAST
NIGHT...AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20
KTS OVER NORTHERN WI. IF PATCHY FOG OCCURS...THE BEST CHANCE WOULD
BE OVER C/EC WI.

A CANADIAN COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG TOWARD NORTHERN WI ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAY PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER
NC/FAR NE WI...INCLUDING THE RHI TAF SITE...DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. SW-W WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH
A FEW HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH


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