Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 271148
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
548 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 409 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL END EARLY TODAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND WEAK RIDGING ARRIVES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IN VILAS COUNTY WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING UNTIL WINDS WEAKEN AND
BECOME WESTERLY. COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING
MUCH AND SHOULD WIND UP ABOUT A DOZEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS.

SKIES SHOULD START OUT CLEAR THIS EVENING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
DROP QUICKLY. THE EXTENT TO WHICH THEY FALL DEPENDS UPON THE ARRIVAL
OF MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
PLAINS STATES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED FRIDAY IN BROAD WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. THE SNOW
AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
WITH AN INCH OR SO IN THE SOUTH. LOCAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE
OVER DOOR COUNTY IF LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 409 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

AFTER A MILD START TO THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THAT POINT...THE LATEST ECMWF IS INDICATING
MILDER PACIFIC AIR ACROSS THE UNITED STATES OUT TO DAY 10.
RELATIVELY FRESH SNOW PACK MAY TEMPER WARM UP ON SOME DAYS.

SYSTEM ON FRIDAY EXPECTED TO ARRIVE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN LAST NIGHT...
THUS INCREASED PRECIPITATION SOME ACROSS THE EAST FRIDAY EVENING FOR
THIS REASONING. SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT. PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...REMOVED ANY MENTION
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S TO AROUND 40. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...MIN TEMPERATURES TRICKY
IF WE SHOULD GET ANY HOLES IN THE CLOUDS...BUT WENT WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR NOW.

COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO FALL AS THE COLDER AIR WILL NOT WORK INTO
NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE FELT ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS FROM 10 TO 20 DEGREES.
WARM UP STARTS ON TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. SOME OF THE MODEL
INDICATED A SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST WIND OFF THE LAKE AT 925MB. PRETTY FAR
OUT TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE WINDS WOULD SWING IN THIS DIRECTION...THUS
DID NOT ADD SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES
BY WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 547 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 2500 AND 3500 FEET
ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. LOCALLY
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT D25 AND LNL UNTIL 15Z.
CLEARING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT UNTIL
CEILINGS LOWER TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS LIGHT SNOW MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......RDM





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