Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 150901
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
301 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...

Today and Tonight...Forecast Confidence is Medium...

A fairly strong mid level trough will drop southeast across mainly
southeast Wisconsin from the northwest early this morning and off
to Lower Michigan by noon. Weak 700 mb upward motion should add to
the very light snow/flurries that will move across, with a
dusting north and east. Then a lull later morning south central
and across the area this afternoon. An upper level jet max then
pushes into Southern Wisconsin tonight, with the left front
quadrant expected to bring 700 mb upward motion and weak upper
divergence. This combined with a developing baroclinic zone,
should result in a band of light snow spreading northwest to
southeast later tonight. Most models point to north areas, but the
RAP is farther south with the max band. Even so only expected
around an inch of snow in the narrow band of max precipitation.

.LONG TERM...

Saturday and Sunday...Forecast confidence is medium to high:

The snow will wind down Saturday morning, with a little lingering
precip far northeast in the afternoon. Another half inch or so is
possible in the northeast through the morning.

Kept a low chance of rain and snow going in the south Sunday
afternoon, though models seem to be trending drier for this
period.

Temps will likely be a few degrees above normal through the
weekend.

Monday through Thursday...Forecast confidence is medium:

Models show a little rain or snow Monday or Monday night as a
wave moves through the area. Kept precip chances on the low end
given fairly limited moisture and weak lift. Also, there are
enough differences among models to make it difficult to pin down
a period of higher pops.

It should be dry Tuesday into Wednesday per latest models showing
high pressure building in. Precip chances will then increase
Wednesday night into Thursday as a stronger low pressure system
is progged to move through the region. Models are in decent
agreement with the placement/timing of this low considering it`s 6
days out. The model consensus brings the warm sector of the low
into the forecast area, with rain seeming more likely Wed night
into Thursday. Could see a transition to snow from northwest to
southeast Thursday night as the tail end of the precip moves
through. This looks like a decent snow maker for the region, so
will have to keep an eye on future model runs, as a shift south
would bring some of the higher amounts into the forecast area.

Temperatures are expected to be mainly above normal for Monday
through Thursday. Looking ahead...models are still suggesting
much colder temps then arriving for late week into the weekend
behind the departing low.

&&

.AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...

MVFR ceilings early this morning. Very light snow/Flurries are
expected most areas, with maybe a dusting as a mid level shortwave
drops down.

Cigs should lift to VFR today, with west winds becoming gusty
from mid morning through the afternoon hours. Look for MVFR/IFR
conditions late Friday night as a band of light snow drops in
from the northwest.

&&

.MARINE...

West winds will gust to Small Craft Levels mid morning into the
afternoon as low pressure moves across the upper Great Lakes. SCA
in effect from 6 am til 6 pm CST.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
     evening for LMZ643>646.
&&

$$

Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Hentz
Saturday through Thursday...DDV


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