Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 250222
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
922 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015

.UPDATE...FOCUS FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOUTH
OF WI ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS. HOWEVER CAN NOT DROP CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM DEVELOPING OVER SRN CWA DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AS PIVOTING LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION GRAZE SRN WI. ALSO...PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION PASSING ACROSS SRN WI MAY ALSO SET OFF SHOWERS AND
ISOL STORMS. THREAT FOR SEVERE LOOKS MINIMAL IN THE SOUTH.
OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE BALLPARK AND EXPECT CLOUDS TO KEEP FOG AT
BAY.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...FOCUS OF SHOWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
SOUTH OF TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO USE
VICINITY REMARK AS A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL EXPECTED TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN WI DURING THE LATE NIGHT. LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON
IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF LOW TO MID CLOUDS SLOWLY EXPANDING OVER NRN
IA SO WL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE AT LEAST MVFR CLOUDS IN TAFS LATE
TNGT INTO THU MRNG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET /LLJ/... SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ESE THROUGH NORTHERN IL. ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS... IF ANYTHING...
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN WI FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA THIS
EVENING AS IT VEERS EAST. THE NOSE OF THE LLJ IS NOW EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER EAST CENTRAL IOWA OR SOUTH... ALONG WITH THE 850MB WARM
FRONT. THIS IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN MANY OF THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FIRE UP ALONG THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT OVER CENTRAL IOWA WITH THE INCREASING LLJ LATE THIS EVENING
PER THE HRRR AND THEN SLIDE EAST THROUGH CENTRAL IL.

KEPT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI DUE TO
THE VICINITY OF THE NOSE OF THE LLJ... UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET... AND WEAK VORTICITY
ADVECTION. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH LESS THAN 500
J/KG CAPE. NOT EXPECTING HEAVY RAIN TRAINING OVER AN AREA FOR A LONG
PERIOD OF TIME. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER ALTHOUGH SPC HAS NOT
TRIMMED SOUTHERN WI OUT OF THE SLIGHT RISK YET THIS AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THESE SHOULD
SLOWLY SCOUR OUT THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER WITH
THIS MOISTURE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW... SO
ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FORECAST. AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRY
WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND HIGHS BACK UP AROUND 80 EXCEPT NEAR THE
LAKE.

LONG TERM...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE CYCLONIC AS A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF
DIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE
FLOW OVER WISCONSIN DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE WEAK...AND THERE WILL
BE LITTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS. IN THE MID-
LEVELS...WE WILL BE ON THE COOL AND DRY SIDE OF A FRONT EXTENDING
WEST FROM THE LOW THAT WILL PASS ON THURSDAY. A SECOND LOW WILL
APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD STAY TO
THE SOUTH OF THE STATE THANKS TO THE FRONT IN PLACE. GFS AND EURO DO
BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
CHOSE TO REMAIN DRY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE MEAGER ASCENT AND
MOISTURE.

BY FRIDAY EVENING...THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL HAVE PASSED TO
THE EAST OF THE STATE...PLACING WISCONSIN UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THE MID AND LOW LEVELS WILL DRY OUT...MAKING FOR A VERY NICE
DAY ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

WISCONSIN WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN NNW FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROF STALLS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A ROBUST
RIDGE/CLOSED HIGH BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A FEW SHORTWAVE TROFS PASS ACROSS THE
STATE REINFORCING THE TROF OVER THE EAST. THOSE SHORTWAVES WILL
PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY IN THIS PERIOD. THE NW
FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE EVENING. A COMPLEX OF
STORMS IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHERN WI SHOULD GET CLIPPED BY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION. MVFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

IFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS THE
CONVECTION MOVES OFF WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST WITHIN
A VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW.  VFR EXPECTED BY THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK


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