Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000
FXUS63 KMKX 130146
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
846 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.UPDATE...
IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE NEAR EAU CLAIRE IS HEADING
STEADILY EAST. PRECIP SHIELD HAS A DISTINCT BACK EDGE THAT
STRETCHES FROM NEAR FOND DU LAC TO JANESVILLE AND IS EXPECTED TO
CLEAR MILWAUKEE AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORT
WAVE IS IMPRESSIVE AND IS CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN
WI VERY QUICKLY. WE ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF A G3 GEOMAGNETIC STORM
THAT MAY PUSH THE AURORA FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR US TO GET A VIEW. WE
JUST NEED TO CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS...AND THAT MAY HAPPEN.
ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPS AND SOME OF THE COVERAGE OF
FROST WEST AND NORTH OF MADISON. FROST CONCERNS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
MINOR TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 06-10Z SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS RAIN WAS BEING DRIVEN BY AMPLIFIED 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND 850 MB/700 MB FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE FIELDS. THESE
FEATURES WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH AND OUT OF THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE RAIN TO END THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST.
CLOUDS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA.
APPROACH OF HIGH SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AND ALLOW
DECENT TEMPERATURE INVERSION TO SET UP IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
COUNTIES.

THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 35 TO 37 DEGREE
RANGE...WHICH WILL RESULT IN PATCHY FROST DEVELOPMENT. SAUK COUNTY
SHOULD GET THE COLDEST...AND MAY SEE MORE FROST THAN OTHER AREAS.
HELD OFF ON A FROST ADVISORY FOR SAUK COUNTY FOR NOW...AS WOULD LIKE
WINDS TO BECOME CALM...WHICH WOULD ALLOW LOWS TO DROP ANOTHER FEW
DEGREES.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 50S IN MOST
AREAS.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION FOR SAT NT AND SUN WHILE A WEAK BUT BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EWD ACROSS ONTARIO CANADA. STILL EXPECT FAIRLY GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO SET UP SAT NT AS SRN WI IS ON THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. HOWEVER...A LGT SLY FLOW WITH STRONGER
WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT THE TEMPS FROM FALLING
INTO THE MID 30S OR COOLER OVER SRN WI SO LITTLE TO NO FROST
EXPECTED. SWLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE SUN INTO SUN
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. 925 MB
TEMPS AND OTHER TEMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS ON SUN WILL BE IN THE
MID 60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN ARE FORECAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE SUN NT AND MONDAY. OVERALL LIFT
REMAINS WEAK WITH FCST SOUNDINGS NOT SATURATING THROUGH THE DEPTH
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH IS A BETTER COMBO OF
LIFT...MOISTURE...AND RESULTANT RAINFALL.

LONG TERM...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE EITHER OVER OR IN THE VICINITY OF
WI WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU. 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL RANGE
FROM 552-558 DM FOR TUE-THU BUT INCREASE FRI TO 564 DM AS SLY FLOW
AND WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS. THE WARMING IS IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPPER RIDGE MOVING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. THE WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING ONLY
SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE NRN AND WRN CWA ON FRI. HIGH TEMPS
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 60S WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE FOR FRI.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. EXPECT MVFR CATEGORY CEILINGS DURING
THIS TIME...LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY.

MODERATE NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. FEW TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CUMULUS IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...

NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BACK NORTHWEST TO WEST
TONIGHT...AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN...ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. A FEW GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING.
WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED FROM NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE
SOUTHWARD DURING THIS TIME. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
ISSUED...AS GUSTS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GEHRING


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