Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 200942
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
442 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Fri May 20 2016

Not much change is expected today over what was seen yesterday.  We
still find ourselves within a broad ridge, with upper lows situated
over the Pacific NW, eastern KS, and the Canadian Maritimes.  Within
the weak flow across the upper MS River valley, there is a weak
shortwave up over NE North Dakota that has allowed a small area of
thunderstorms to fester through the night.  Given weak steering flow
overhead though, this wave will be slow to move, staying in eastern
North Dakota today before swinging through western MN tonight.
Boundary layer through tonight looks too dry to produce rain and all
this wave looks to do is reinforce cloud cover between 7k and 10k ft.

At the surface today, we will maintain southeast winds that will
begin to weaken during the day as a surface ridge axis builds west
across WI into MN from the Great Lakes surface high. What we will
see through the day is increasing moisture in the 6k-8k ft layer,
which will result in increased cloud cover compared to what we saw
yesterday. This increased cloud cover is why temperatures are forecast
to be a degree or two cooler than what was observed yesterday,
despite little airmass change. Did remove any sort of precipitation
mention for today as the cloud bearing layer on BUFKIT is too
shallow to produce precipitation.

Tonight, the loss of daytime heating will result in the clouds
around 6k ft diminishing...but the ND short wave moving through will
keep mid/upper level clouds in place, which will keep lows tonight
slightly warmer than what we are seeing this morning, despite mainly
calm winds developing as a surface high develops over the upper MS
valley.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Fri May 20 2016

The weekend looks like a gem with above normal temperatures in the
mid to upper 70s and sunshine. By Sunday evening, the chance for
thunderstorms increases in western Minnesota, but this rain has
trended slower. Widespread showers and storms are looking more
likely late Sunday night into Monday. The active pattern remains
in place through next week.

A short wave is exiting the forecast area Saturday morning,
perhaps leaving some high clouds, but the day will be dry and
quite warm with building heights and a surface high overhead. The
forecast soundings remain dry Saturday and Sunday with deeper
moisture remaining across the Plains. Warm air and moisture starts
to push into western Minnesota Sunday evening and the moisture
transport increases between 03z-12z across the forecast area.
This stream of moisture advection should lead to scattered to
numerous showers and elevated storms during the late night and
into Monday. If there is a concern, heavy rain seems like the
biggest threat at this point. But outside of urban areas, there
isn`t much of a flash flood threat given the fairly dry conditions
recently.

Tuesday through Thursday will remain active with southwest flow
across the central CONUS and several shortwave impulses embedded
in this flow. The southwesterly low and mid level jets aren`t
overly strong and therefore the shear through the week isn`t
tremendous. There is, however, enough moisture in place to give
MN/WI 800-1500 J/KG of MUCAPE each afternoon, so thunder will be
possible basically everyday with these shortwaves providing the
trigger. In fact...there are even a couple defined surface lows
that are forecast to pass through the area on Wednesday and
Friday. We will definitely have several chances for rain next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Thu May 19 2016

Few clouds overnight with light southeasterly winds.  Tomorrow
will be similar to today with a diurnally driven cumulus field
expected to pop during the day. Overall, VFR conditions with no
weather issues expected.

KMSP...VFR throughout with no weather issues.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind S 10-20 kts.
MON...VFR. Chc -TSRA. Wind SW 15-20 kts.


&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...SPD


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