Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 190358
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1058 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Scattered showers are most numerous over southwestern MN and
western WI this afternoon. These showers and cu should dissipate
after sunset with a stabilizing boundary layer. Lows tonight will
be near normal or slightly below normal with low to mid 50s area
wide.

Northwest flow continues into Monday, and much like today, another
few disturbances will potentially kick off scattered showers and
a thunderstorm or two by afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

A stronger wave embedded in the northwest flow could allow showers
to become more widespread for a time Monday evening. The loss of
daytime instability will be a negative factor though, so kept PoPs
in the 30-40 percent range.

Low amplitude, mid level ridging returns Tuesday and Wednesday but
thicknesses will remain cool Tuesday with surface ridging nearby.
Mostly sunny skies, winds less than 10 mph, and temperatures in
the 70s should make for a fantastic day.

Temperatures aloft warm considerably Wednesday with 850 mb temps
of around +20C ahead of the system passing by to the north. The
surface warm front and a nocturnal LLJ may spark showers and
storms late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, and the resultant
remnant cloud cover will determine if the atmosphere remains
capped or can become unstable Wednesday afternoon as the very warm
air aloft moves overhead. GFS and NAM do indicate the atmosphere
recharging across western MN where temps warm to near 90. Forcing
along the quickly following cold front isn`t all that strong, so
it may be difficult to get a robust storm threat following the
morning activity. If they can form, moderate shear would organize
storms potentially into line segments or supercells.

Northwest flow returns late week through early the following week.
Temperatures will remain below normal and the pattern relatively
unsettled as several more waves dive southeast across the Great
Lakes and midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

The main change to these tafs were to introduce MVFR cigs at both
KRNH/KEAU between 12-16z. Otherwise, kept close to the previous
tafs with more clouds developing during the morning as did Sunday
morning. A few SHRA are possible, especially in south
central/southeast Minnesota where instability will be greatest.
Gusty winds will redevelop by noon, and continue thru early
evening.

KMSP...

MVFR cigs are possible along the Minnesota/Wisconsin border, but
confidence for KMSP is too low so will keep SCT025 BKN040 between
12-18z. Otherwise, gusty winds develop by noon, and continue thru
early evening. A few SHRA are possible, but not likely.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

Tue...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts.
Wed...VFR. Chc -TSRA. Wind S 10 kts.
Thu...VFR. Chc -TSRA. Wind WNW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JLT



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