Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 291920
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
220 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

A very quiet period can be expected tonight and Saturday as the
region remains under the influence of the surface high centered
over the Great Lakes. Shortwave trough currently visible in water
vapor imagery near the North Dakota/Canada looks to mainly produce
precipitation north/west of the area, with most of it being
diurnally driven. The surface high will slowly depart over the
upcoming 24 hours, with precipitation staying south and west of
the area, closer to the main baroclinic zone. There`s a small
chance of something getting into the forecast area on Tuesday, but
best chance looks to be over the southeast portion of the area
with better lapse rates, so just included some small PoPs in there
during the afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Saturday night through Monday...High pressure will settle over SE
Canada over the weekend into early next week while an upper level
ridge axis that was stoic over the plains shifts eastward and
pivots to a NE-SW orientation over the Great Lakes and Upper
Mississippi River Valley regions. This combination of features
will spell a mainly dry weekend into early next week with slowly
rising temperatures and dewpoints. Low level flow will have a more
pronounced southerly component Sunday into Monday, allowing
dewpoints to slowly increase once again to the upper 60s and lower
70s, bringing a return of more humid conditions. So, with high
temperatures forecast to reach the low-mid 80s Sunday-Monday, heat
index values will rise to around 90 degrees for much of the
coverage area.

Tuesday through Friday...Going into mid-to-late next week, a more
zonal pattern aloft will develop in advance of a compact upper
level low moving onshore the Pacific NW states Mon night. This
system will steadily move east northeast towards lower Hudson Bay
as the week progresses and will be responsible for shifting a
complex low pressure system across the northern tier states
Tuesday through Wednesday. This looks to be the best chance for
showers and thunderstorms throughout next week with chances nudged
up into the 40s-50s for mainly Wednesday. Upper level flow looks
to be fairly zonal over this region so the prospects for any
strong thunderstorms look low as does any potential for having
prolonged or heavy rain. Once this system moves through, Thursday
into Friday both look rather dry as high pressure returns. Ahead
of this system, temperatures do look to continue rising through
Wednesday, including high temperatures climbing to the lower 90s
mainly in western MN. Behind this system, highs drop back to
mainly the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Very quiet weather will prevail across the area through the period
as we remain under the influence of a slowly moving area of high
pressure. Winds will be very light through the period, but will
start to become more southeasterly and slightly stronger toward
the tail end.

KMSP...VFR conditions will persist through the period. Wind
direction will fluctuate between NNW and E to some extent through
this evening, but speeds will generally be AOB 5 kt.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat night thru Sun night...VFR. SE wind 10 kt or less.
Mon...VFR. SE wind 10-15 kt.
Mon night-Tue...Mainly VFR with Chance MVFR/-SHRA and TSRA. SE
wind 10-20 kt becoming S 5-15 kt.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...


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