Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 212039
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
239 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1139 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

Wind speeds in the wake of the cold front have begun to diminish
faster than originally expected, so the Wind Advisory was dropped
at 11AM as no observations were reaching criteria any longer. The
trend for a gradual wind speed reduction will continue through the
rest of the day and especially tonight. While still breezy this
afternoon, the winds will not be as strong as they were early this
morning as the greatest pressure falls shifts east of our area.

Skies will continue clearing through the afternoon and have
already for much of the area. Expect the clear skies to stick
around through the day but don`t be fooled by into thinking its
warm outside. With persistent northwest flow, temperatures will
remain below freezing, seeing no daytime improvement and combined
with the breezy conditions, the apparent temperature will be
in the teens all afternoon.

Winds will significantly weaken tonight, with around 5 to 10 MPH
expected overnight. Tomorrow will be slightly warmer than today
with low to mid 30s expected area-wide. A weak shortwave will
slide east through northern MN tomorrow afternoon and may graze
central MN with some light snow and flurries are possible across
the rest of the area into tomorrow evening. No accumulation is
expected.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 207 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

By tomorrow evening, the building ridge across the western CONUS
will begin encroaching on western MN leading in to Thanksgiving
day. The main feature of interest is an energetic wave that
quickly move through the ridge in southwestern Canada on Thursday
which will put is in a warm air advection regime mainly,
especially Thursday night. So, didn`t change the forecast highs
for Thursday much, the main adjustment was to bump temperatures
in far western MN up to the upper 40s as southwest winds create a
downsloping effect on the east side of the Buffalo Ridge. All in
all, not a bad day on Thanksgiving. Highs around 40 in the east
and warmer in far western MN, with partly cloudy skies and winds
of 5 to 10 MPH.

The surface low that emerges from the Canadian Rockies will deepen
quite a bit and in a short period of time. A 976mb low racing
across Manitoba and into Ontario Friday will bring a cold front
through our region Friday. High temperatures Friday will depend on
timing of this front, which at this point looks to move through
during daytime hours. It will be a bit of a nasty day when the
front moves through. Rain and very strong winds will accompany the
front, more so for central MN and northwest WI given the closer
proximity to the low. Did raise winds quite a bit compared to
blended guidance. Soundings indicate potential for wind gusts in
the 35 to 45 MPH range Friday afternoon behind the front.

After a brief cool down over the weekend, the roller coaster ride
continues into next week as Monday looks to be another shot at
seeing highs approaching 50 as southwest flow develops once again.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

VFR through the period. Wind being the main concern and the
biggest change made was to reduce the wind speeds for this
afternoon as they are already weakening faster than previously
thought. Breezy northwest winds will weaken to under 7 knots
tonight and turn southerly tomorrow morning. A weak wave will
come in from the west and bring mostly mid and high clouds late
morning through tomorrow afternoon.

KMSP...no change from the main discussion.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...VFR. Winds NW 5 kts.
Fri...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-SHRA late. Winds SW 10 kts turning
NW with PM FROPA and increasing to 15-20 knots
.Sat...VFR. Winds NW 10-15 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...SPD



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