Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 072012
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
212 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday evening)
Issued at 212 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

We could see a few flurries over the area tonight into early
Friday as a weak surface wave currently over Manitoba drops
southeast through the region. Otherwise, it will mainly serve to
just increase mid/high clouds as warm advection increases. A much
more potent shortwave trough will drop southeast into the region
Friday afternoon and evening, bringing fairly widespread light
snow to the area, particularly east of I-35 where an inch or two
of accumulation is expected by late Friday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Friday overnight through Thursday)
Issued at 212 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

Things don`t look to change much at all through the period, with
the western ridge and eastern trough looking to hold on through
next Thursday. There are some indications that the western ridge
will begin breaking down toward the end of the period, with the
upper flow becoming more zonal along the northern tier of the
CONUS after that, but we`ll need to wait and see if that model
trend persists. In any event, with the pattern remaining largely
the same through the current 7 day forecast period, we`ll see more
of the same in terms of our sensible weather. Northwest flow will
prevail, with reinforcing shots of cold air and chances for light
snow every every 1-2 days or so. The model guidance is in good
agreement on the overall pattern through the period, favoring
mostly below normal temperatures and periodic light snow chances.
However, as would be expected, there are differences in the
details as we move beyond the weekend with respect to timing,
placement, and amplitude of the individual shortwave troughs and
associated surface features. This leads to a lot of chance PoPs in
the forecast, which will be refined as things get closer in time
(leading to shorter time periods with what will undoubtedly be
somewhat higher PoPs). The next more potent shortwave trough with
reasonable agreement in the guidance looks to be on Monday, and at
this point it appears to favor the eastern half of the area much
like tomorrow evening`s system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1144 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

Midlevel clouds will continue to filter-in across MN and WI this
afternoon. Low-level clouds are anticipated to increase
overnight, bringing a chance for flurries this evening into early
Friday and a chance for MFVR ceilings Friday morning. Otherwise,
the best chances for snow and MVFR/IFR conditions return from
north to south after 18Z on Friday.

KMSP...VFR conditions will continue for today with a chance for
flurries this evening. Ceiling heights will decrease overnight, so
there is a slight chance for MVFR ceilings Friday morning.
However, the best chance for MVFR/IFR ceilings will be near and
after 21Z on Friday as snow chances increase.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...MVFR with IFR/-SN possible after 21Z. Wind W-NW 10G15 kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind NW 10G15-20kts.
Sun...VFR. Wind SW 10G15 kts.
Mon...MFVR with IFR/-SN possible. Wind NW 10 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AMK



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