Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 191041

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
541 AM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

.updated for 12z aviation discussion below...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

The main concerns in the near term is expansion of lower level
clouds across central MN this morning. Mesoanalysis showing Lower
level CAA pattern over the northern portion of the cwa in the wake
of the cold front. Various short range models showing lower level RH
dropping into central MN in a line from near KRWF-KMSP through
18z...before dissipating during the afternoon.  Deterministic models
diverge some on dropping this RH too far south...possibly
interacting with the short wave to the southwest. Feel fairly
confident they will make it into central MN this morning so will
mention mostly cloudy there. Lesser clouds expected to the east with
mainly mid/high clouds moving across the southern third or so today.
This will dim the sun as well...and will trend a degree cooler most

Expect fairly rapid clearing in the evening with light winds as the
high drops southeast into the area. Went a degree cooler than
guidance overnight as well...with good radiational cooling

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Dry weather and slightly below normal temperatures are expected
through almost the long term period, with the only formidable
precipitation chances arriving toward the middle of next week.

This week finishes up with our local area sandwiched between upper
ridges on each coast, with dry surface high pressure locally.
Thursday temperatures top out around 5 degrees below normal, and
gradually climb back to around 5 degrees above normal for

By early next week a trough digging across the western United
States causes strong low level (850 millibar) temp/moisture
advection to nose into the area. There are still some timing
differences between the GFS and ECMWF, but in general this
scenario looks to unfold over the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe
during which high chance pops have been included. A fair amount of
instability is progged during this time as well, so a mention of
thunderstorms has been included.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 530 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Low end MVFR with some isolated IFR cigs dropping/developing into
central mn behind cold front. This is expected to affect mainly
KAXN-KSTC and perhaps KRWF this morning. It may work into KMSP-
KRNH as well...but is expected to be brief. Then expect vfr
conditions through the remainder of the period. Winds mainly nw
behind front generally less than 10kts.

Expecting mvfr cigs dropping into the north metro this
morning...remaining VFR at KMSP. High level clouds moving through
as well...but that should thin out by this evening. Winds mainly
nw less than 10kts during the period.

Thu night...VFR. Wind NW-n 5 kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind SE 5 kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind S 5 kts.


.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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