Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 262011

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
311 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Earlier today, two areas of precipitation moved northward across
Minnesota, and settled across the far northwest, and the arrowhead
region of Minnesota. Although regional radar, surface
observations, and area webcams indicated some light rain, mixed
with snow across central and west central Minnesota, most areas
were dry this afternoon. The precipitation was associated with
another weak short wave rotating northward across the Upper
Midwest. This was evident in the latest water vapor imagery where
some enhancement was noted in western Minnesota.

The best area of receiving any "measurable" precipitation
overnight, and Thursday, will occur as the main upper wave moves
eastward across northern Minnesota. Therefore, the best area will
remain across central Minnesota, and then east toward northern
Wisconsin Thursday. This is also where deeper moisture resides,
but forecast soundings are not conducive on ice formation, hence,
limiting the chances of snow vs. drizzle. Depending upon another
storm system that will move northeast across the Midwest tomorrow,
additional light rain/light snow could fall in portions of west
central Wisconsin. The main area affected would be Rusk, Chippewa
and Eau Claire counties. This area does have higher precipitation
chances due to this factor. Otherwise, mainly dry over the next 24
hours with temperatures still well below normal. Some freezing
temperatures will occur overnight in western and central Minnesota
where the growing season hasn`t started. However, cloud cover and
brisk winds will keep most areas in southern Minnesota near or
slightly above freezing. Those who have tender plants outside
should place them indoors just to be on the save side.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

The main item of interest in the later periods continues to be the
system that is expected to lift north from the southern Plains in
the Sunday/Monday time frame. Overall, we look to remain in a long
wave trough through the period, so in terms of temperatures, they
will remain below normal, so it won`t be the greatest time to get
outdoor Spring work done.

We should see clouds finally start to work out of the area
tomorrow night, which could present issues for frost/freeze
conditions, especially with winds dropping off. However, there
remains some variability in the guidance with respect to cloud
cover, so at this point chose to simply include a mention of frost
in the forecast, and hopefully subsequent shifts can determine if
a headline is needed.

We`ll be on the southern edge of a surface high centered over
Canada later tomorrow night through Friday, which will keep things
dry but cool. A shortwave trough will move along the baroclinic
zone to our south on Friday, but if anything the guidance has
trended south with this over time, and now it doesn`t appear that
any precipitation will make it into our area. After that we will
await the system for the second part of the weekend. The
deterministic solutions continue to be in good agreement on the
development and general movement of the system, although
differences in timing and its exact track still look to complicate
the scenario with respect to precipitation-type and amounts.
These Spring systems often produce more snow than expected, with
boundary layer temperatures that seem to warm often cooling
quickly during heavier precipitation. So, feel we`ll certainly see
some mix/change to snow over part of the area, particularly
Sunday night and Monday. Hopefully things will come into better
agreement in terms of forecast profiles and low-level temperatures
over the next few days, allowing for refinement of things as we
get into the period when actual amounts need to be forecast. We
should see enough ridging and subsidence work in Monday night to
dry things out, with mainly dry and cool weather for Tuesday. Some
lighter precipitation may work back into the area on Wednesday as
a weak northern stream wave drops into the mean upper trough.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Areas of IFR/MVFR cigs will continue through the forecast period
with some light snow, mixed with freezing drizzle or drizzle at
times, especially in central Minnesota this afternoon. Any
precipitation will be minor and not expecting any ice
accumulations. Winds will remain from the north/north-northwest
at 10-15 kts, with gusts in the lower 20s in west central/central
and southwest Minnesota this afternoon. Winds will back to the
west-northwest later tonight, and Thursday morning.


Cigs will remain below 1.7k through this afternoon, and into
tonight. Confidence remains high on this scenario. Some light
drizzle is possible this afternoon, with a chance of light snow
this evening. However, no ice or accumulations are expected. Cigs
will begin to rise above 1.7k by Thursday morning, and become VFR
in the afternoon. Winds will remain from the north this afternoon,
and back to the west-northwest Thursday morning.


Fri...Mainly VFR. Winds N 5-10 kts.
Sat...Mainly VFR. Winds NE 5-10 kts.
Sun...VFR, Bcmg MVFR/IFR with -RA. Winds NE 10-15G 20-25 kts.




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