Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 160446
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1046 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN
BORDER OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND MOST
IMPORTANTLY A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY FORECAST FOCI ARE TIMING
OF THE TRANSITION TO SNOW TONIGHT...AND OF COURSE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ICE ACCUMULATIONS WITH FREEZING RAIN PRIOR TO THE CHANGEOVER.

WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA IS CURRENTLY TAKING THE BRUNT OF THE ICE
ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE TRANSITION TO SNOW
SHOULD OCCUR OUT WEST BY 00Z. THE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET THREAT WILL BE
SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MN TOWARD EAST CENTRAL
MN...REACHING THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 23Z /CAMBRIDGE/ AND
03Z /ALBERT LEA/. SHOULD BE MORE OF A RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW
TRANSITION FOR EASTERN MN OVER A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD...WITH A LOWER THREAT
FOR FREEZING RAIN LIKE THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE EXPERIENCED.
THEREFORE CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE PLANS TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FARTHER EAST TO INCLUDE THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. THE
TRANSITION TO SNOW FOR THE WISCONSIN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL LARGELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 06Z...WITH EASTERN AREAS LIKE
EAU CLAIRE NOT SEEING A FULL TRANSITION CLOSER TO 12Z TUESDAY.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS BY 12Z TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
2-4 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA OF WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MN...TO
ONE HALF TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

WINDS HAVE BEEN STOUT ACROSS THE WEST TODAY...AND WILL NEAR OR
POSSIBLY TOP ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...PRIMARILY
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY. WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS
POINT...BUT MAY NEED TO PIGGYBACK ON THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR WEST/SOUTH CENTRAL MN.

MUCH COOLER BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ARRIVE FOR TUESDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS /WEST CENTRAL MN/ TO UPPER 20S /WEST
CENTRAL WI/. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI AND BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT/S SYSTEM...A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING SE
ACROSS CANADA WILL COMBINE WITH TONIGHT/S SYSTEM TO FORM AN UPPER
LOW ACROSS MN/WI. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT E-SE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TUE NIGHT/WED...ALLOWING FOR OCCASIONAL FLURRIES WHERE THE
DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AND CRITICAL DENDRITIC  SNOW GROWTH SNOW
EXISTS.

PAST WED...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER MIDWEST
THROUGH THU. THERE REMAINS SOME CONCERN ON FRIDAY AS RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS...AND A WEAK SHRTWV MOVES NE ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THE
SOUTHERN JET STREAM REMAINS THE MOST ACTIVE IN THE PERIOD...AND
WITH THE SPLIT FLOW TYPE OF REGIME WE HAVE HAD IN THE PAST...AM
LEANING TOWARD DRY CONDS. IF WE DO GET ANYTHING...IT WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT QPF AMTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...SO ONLY A
DUSTING IS POSSIBLE.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE COLDEST EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEM ARE ON THE HORIZON...BUT THE TREND FOR COLDER WX DOES
SHOW UP BY THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN. DUE TO THE SPLIT FLOW REGIME...AND UNTIL WE GET A
BETTER SENSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPING...AM LEANING
TOWARD DRY CONDS THROUGH THE END OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

RAIN/SLEET/SNOW AXIS NOW OVER KMSP TO NEAR KRNH. IT SHOULD BE ALL
SNOW AT THESE TWO SITES BY THE START OF THE TAF. KEAU WILL HAVE
RAIN TILL 09Z-10Z WITH LIGHT SNOW THEREAFTER UNTIL 16Z. THE SNOW
HAS ENDED AT KAXN WITH KRWF AND KSTC HAVING AROUND 2 MORE HOURS
OF STEADY SNOW. CEILINGS HAVE BOUNCED UP INTO THE OVC015-020 RANGE
WITH THE SNOW BUT AS IT ENDS THEY WILL LIKELY SETTLE BACK A BIT
INTO THE 010-015 RANGE. MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST ON TUESDAY UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON WITH SCT CONDITIONS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST. AN
ISSUE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IS THE STRONG WINDS.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM OVER EASTERN IA
WILL CAUSE NEAR 25 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS FROM WEST CENTRAL THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL MN. GUSTS WILL REACH 40 KNOTS. NEAR 20 KNOT
SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AS FAR EAST AS KMSP AND
KRNH.

KMSP...CHANGEOVER THE SNOW UNDERWAY WITH LIGHT SNOW UNTIL 10Z THEN
ENDING BY 12Z. OVERNIGHT ACCUMULATION BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND ONE
INCH.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ041>045-
     048>052-058-059-066>068-074-075-082-083-091-092.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ047-054>057-
     064-065-073.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...RAH





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