Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 071218
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
618 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 612 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE OVERALL SETUP REGARDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A BIT MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED
MEANING THERE IS MORE QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE SNOWPACK
WILL BE BLOWN AROUND. ON THAT NOTE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE
HIGHER WIND VALUES...SO CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN STRONG WINDS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY MORNING. ADJUSTED THE
HAZARD HEADLINES BACK A FEW HOURS TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH THE
ONSET OF STRONG WINDS.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND
SURFACE PRESSURE SHOWS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS
IT SLIDES EAST SOUTHEAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SPILL ACROSS THE
REGION...DESTABILIZING THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A VERY WINDY NIGHT TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS SEVERAL
HOURS OF 50+ KT GUSTS OFF BOTH THE GFS AND NAM...WHICH IS AT THE
HIGHER LIMITS OF ANY GROUND BLIZZARD WITHIN THE PAST 5 YEARS.
THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 50
MPH ALONG THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY DOWN THROUGH SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA.

THERE IS QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW WILL BLOW AROUND. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...TEMPERATURE HAVE BEEN ABOVE FREEZING FOR
SEVERAL HOURS...AND WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE. THIS WILL
LIKELY NOT BE A SHOW STOPPER FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA WHERE THERE IS SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...BUT IT SHOULD
CERTAINLY HINDER BLOWING AND DRIFTING IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WHERE THERE IS ONLY A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW.

IF WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
ALMOST INSTANTANEOUSLY WITH THE FORECAST WINDS. HOWEVER...THE
COVERAGE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS REMAINS IN QUESTION...SO DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCE TO RATE THIS AS BEING A LOW END OR HIGH END GROUND
BLIZZARD. WITH THAT SAID...THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AFTER
DARK...AND LAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE PATTERN OF NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS COAST
AND A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS COAST WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGHOUT
THE MIDDLE-TO-END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY LARGE SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...THUS A PERIOD OF
RATHER DRY SEVERAL DAYS IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH PROMOTING
EFFECTIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS SOME VARIATION BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE ERN CONUS TROF AND ITS
LOCATION...WITH THE EC DEEPER AND FURTHER W WHILE THE GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND WEAKER. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WILL DROP IN FROM
CENTRAL CANADA TUE-THU...MAKING FOR GENERALLY COLD BUT PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRES...POTENTIALLY EVOLVING
INTO A CDFNT...WILL DROP THRU THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI MRNG.
AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER... BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
EC/GFS...THERE IS DIFFERENT PLACEMENT OF A VERY NARROW SWATH OF
MOISTURE IN BOTH TIMING AND LOCATION. THE GFS IS EARLIER...THU
INTO THU EVE...IN WRN-CENTRAL MN WHILE THE EC IS LATER...LATE THU
NIGHT THRU FRI...BUT FURTHER S AND W OF THE WFO MPX CWFA. BECAUSE
OF THIS NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION WITH BARELY 0.01
INCH QPF...AFTER COLLAB HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST UNTIL
BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT AND BETTER PRECIP GENERATION PRESENTS
ITSELF. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
THROUGH THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAINLY VFR CONDS THRU THE MORNING THEN CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE AS SN/BLSN MOVE IN FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL SETTLE ON WNW BY LATE THIS MORNING...CONTINUING TO VEER TO NW
TONIGHT THRU TMRW WHILE SUSTAINED SPEEDS INCRS TO THE 20-30 KT
RANGE FOR THE MN TAF SITES...15-20 KT FOR THE WI TAF SITES...WITH
GUSTS INCRG TO THE 30-40KT RANGE. WITH AREAS OF -SN MOVING INTO
THE AREA LATER TDA...VSBY WILL BE REDUCED TO THE 1-2SM RANGE FOR
MUCH OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN AND
SRN MN.

KMSP...VFR UNTIL ARND 21Z WHEN -SHSN ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE. CONDS
WILL DETERIORATE FURTHER WHEN MORE SOLID BANDS OF -SN MOVE THRU...
AND THESE BANDS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE FOR PROLONGED
REDUCED FLIGHT CONDS FOR KMSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND N 5 KTS...BECOMING W.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ076-083>085-092-093.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY
     FOR MNZ041-047-048-055.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     MONDAY FOR MNZ042>045-049-050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     MONDAY FOR MNZ051>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ065>067-073>075-082-091.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY
     FOR MNZ054-056>058-064.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JPC


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