Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 061736

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1136 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

.updated for 18z taf discussion below...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 402 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

Early morning IR satellite imagery together with surface obs showed
a strong cold front that making its way near the coast across the
entire eastern 2/3 of the country. Meanwhile cold cloud tops
associated with the subtropical jet that fed into the powerful low
pressure system associated with this cold front extended all the way
from New Foundland down through the Baja out toward the eastern

Meanwhile closer to home northwest flow continued over the Upper
Midwest. A broad upper level shortwave over North Dakota will sweep
across Minnesota and Wisconsin and bring some light snow showers
today. Forecast soundings show omega and saturation within the
dendritic growth zone. Increased pops since most locations should
see some falling snow today, but accumulations will only be around a
trace. Northwest winds will continue at the surface with afternoon
gusts around 20 to 30 mph. Highs will only be in the upper teens to
lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 402 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

A persistent ridge over the west coast through the long term period
means we will see a lot of northwesterly flow and cool temperatures,
along with a few chances of show showers/flurries.  With this
pattern, do not expect any significant storms to head our direction.

There will be a chance for light snow with minimal accumulation
potential Thursday night into Friday as a subtle shortwave slides
south through our area.  The upper jet oriented from north to south
will nose into MN leading to weak divergence aloft locally and hence
the chance for some light snow showers and flurries.  For Friday
night, the jet will continue to dive south and a decent shortwave
will race through eastern MN/western WI.  That will bring a better
chance of seeing some light snow.  It will move through very quickly
and moisture is modest, so would expect an inch of snow possible in
western WI with less in eastern MN.

The upper jet will rapidly weaken Saturday and the ridge will
encroach on our area Sunday, leading to highs above freezing most
likely.  Meanwhile, a strong ridge will redevelop over the west
coast and yet another strong northerly jet will develop downstream
of the ridge axis, which will again send colder air south through
the eastern half of the continent early next week.  The difference
between the GFS and EC is exactly where the jet lines up.  The EC is
farther east with it, which would imply more of a glancing blow from
the colder air coming south, whereas the GFS brings the coldest air
directly into MN and WI.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

MVFR cigs with ocnl IFR vsbys in -SHSN spreading south this
afternoon as upper trough moves through. Looks like around one
half inch accumulation likely, mainly across the southern area
into this evening. Improving conditions from the north into the
evening, and should be vfr through 06z. Still have strong
northwestwinds gusting to 30kts possible into the evening. Then
diminishing and become lighter w-nw into Thursday.

KMSP... MVFR cigs expected through the afternoon with periods of
-shsn with reduced visibility through about 01z. Northwest winds
 will remain gusty into this evening and become light nw into
 Thursday. Expect vfr conditions developing again through 03z.

Thu night...MVFR possible late with Chc -SN. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
Fri...MVFR possible with Chc -SN. Wind NW 10G20 kts.
Sat...MVFR cigs possible. Wind NW 5-10 kts.




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