Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 222049
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
349 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

INITIAL SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE REDEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE OF FOG
LATER TONIGHT.  CLOUD DECK REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER STRONG INVERSION
OVER EASTERN MN/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. EXPECT MUCH OF THIS AREA OF THICKER
CLOUD COVER TO DISSIPATE/ERODE FURTHER ALONG THE ITS OUTERMOST
PERIPHERY.  HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE A SMALL AREA OF CLOUD COVER WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE LATE BREAK UP OF CLOUDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES...COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP AGAIN BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN
THE EAST.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...SO STRATUS AND FOG IS
ONCE AGAIN ANTICIPATED OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA.
FURTHER SOUTHWEST...HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT...AND
THIS MAY HELP PRECLUDE DENSE FOG FROM FORMING.  WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
INTO THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL BACK TO MAINLY THE
MID/UPPER 60S.

LATER TONIGHT...MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE FORCING MOVING
IN.  WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR NOW.  THE
MAIN FORCING MOVES LONG THE DAKOTAS/MN BORDER LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON.  WE STILL MAY SEE A BAND OF WAA SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDER LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MN...MAINLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN SHOW SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE COMING EVENING.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INCREASES DURING THE DAY AS WELL WITH
OVERALL DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST.  LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEST AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
SOUTHWEST MN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE LONGER RANGE OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE MARKED BY OCCASIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND...HOT
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY...THEN COOL AND DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...A SURFACE LOW
CIRCA 1000MB IS PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OVER THE DAKOTAS. MODEL
SOLUTIONS ALL FEATURE THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH AMPLITUDE AND SPATIAL
DIFFERENCES ARE QUITE APPARENT. THIS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
HOW FAR EAST THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WILL EXPERIENCE CONVECTION /IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW AND
FORCING/ADVECTION/.

ON SUNDAY...THE LOW LIFTS TO MANITOBA/ONTARIO...WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE THERMAL RIDGE NOSES INTO EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. EXPECT HIGHS TO SNEAK INTO THE LOWER
90S...WHICH MEANS A HEAT ADIVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION
OF THE AREA...POTENTIALLY INCLUDING HENNEPIN AND RAMSEY COUNTIES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW RESIDUAL
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION IMPACT HIGH TEMPS.

FOR MONDAY...AN OVERALL DRY DAY IS EXPECTED AS WEAK
RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE WORKS INTO THE AREA. THE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION
WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS AN INVERTED TROUGH NOSES INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM EITHER...BUT THERE IS RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BLOSSOM FROM SOUTHERN MN ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON MONDAY
EVENING. THE BOUNDARY THEN SAGS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND FOSTERS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
THE LOCATION WHERE THE FRONT STALLS IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD BECOME A CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TO POTENTIALLY TRACK OVER THE SAME AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW/BLO 2500 FEET REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA BEFORE NOON. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR CIGS OVER THE NORTHEAST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND BECOME VFR ELSEWHERE. NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL AFFECT
THE SOUTHWEST AREAS WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THIS
MAY LIMIT SIG FOG FORMATION TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT WILL CONTINUE
IFR/LIFR FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA.
WILL MENTION VCSH AFTER 14Z AT KAXN/KRWF WITH THE REST OF THE AREA
LEFT DRY THROUGH 18Z ST. LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE AREA
BECOME SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAY SAT AND INCREASING TO 10KTS.

KMSP...
EXPECT VFR CONDS TO DEVELOP THROUGH 21Z AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF FOG FORMING OVERNIGHT. THIS
MAY BE LIMITED BY ANY LEFTOVER CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF
THE AREA ADVECTING SOUTH INTO THE EVENING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THIS TREND. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR THROUGH 16Z SAT
AND VFR THROUGH 18Z. SOME THREAT OF -SHRA INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT
TOO LIMITED TO MENTION NOW. LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST INTO SATURDAY AND INCREASING TO 10 KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT NIGHT...VFR. CHC TSRA. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. MVFR/TSRA POSSIBLE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WINDS S10G20 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE






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