Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 100350
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
950 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AT UPPER LEVELS OVER OUR
AREA...AS A 100-150 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STRETCHES FROM SASKATCHEWAN
THROUGH WESTERN MN SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE GULF COAST REGION AND
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO MN AND WI UNDER THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN...RESULTING IN COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY
DRY AIR IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE IN PARTS OF
WESTERN/SW MN...WHERE A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO PRODUCE
LIGHT SNOW ON WEDNESDAY.

A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
AND WESTERN MN FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING...WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AT
THIS TIME.  TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW...A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP ALONG A SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH IOWA.  DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THE SNOW IS
MOST LIKELY TO FALL NEAR AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ALEXANDRIA THROUGH
REDWOOD FALLS. DESPITE HIGH SNOWFALL RATIOS WITH MUCH OF THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...LIGHT PRECIPITATION RATES
SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATION NEAR THE MN/SD BORDER TO 1-2
INCHES...TAPERING OFF QUICKLY TO THE EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME QUITE COLD OVER EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI
TONIGHT AS WINDS DECREASE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED...SO
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ARE LIKELY. LOWS SHOULD BE AT
LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES MILDER IN WESTERN MN...WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY PREVENT MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING.  HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

MAIN THEME FOR THE EXTENDED ARE THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF MILD AIR AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. AS WE MAKE THAT TRANSITION FROM COLD TO WARM
ON SUNDAY...YOU WILL FIND OUR BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW.

THE MAIN STORY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IS THE COLD. A DEEP
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA...KEEPING US FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN NW FLOW. THIS WILL OPEN US
UP TO A COUPLE OF ARCTIC HIGHS. THE FIRST WILL BE AROUND A 1030 MB
HIGH COMING THROUGH ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BIG ONE COMING DOWN
FRIDAY NIGHT...WHEN A 1045MB HIGH LOOKS TO BE CENTERED OVER MN BY
SAT MORNING. THE COLDEST PERIOD WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WHEN
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
IN THE TEENS/20S BELOW ZERO. BETWEEN THE HIGHS...WE WILL SEE A WEAK
SFC TROUGH WORK ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ANOTHER QUICK HIT OF MOISTURE
STARVED ARCTIC FLUFF POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE
NAM/CANADIAN ARE MOST BULLISH WITH ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
FALLING FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN...WHILE THE
ECMWF/GFS SHOW THIS WAVE COMING THROUGH MAINLY DRY. AT THIS
TIME...KEPT PREVIOUS FORECAST MORE OR LESS UNCHANGED WITH 20 POPS
SLIDING DOWN FOR LOCATIONS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE UPPER MN RIVER.

THIS WEEKEND WE WILL SEE A PATTERN SHIFT BEGIN AS THE ERN THROUGH
BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AND A MORE EL NINO ESQUE WEATHER
PATTERN RETURNS. AS THIS DOES SO...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE
STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A BURST OF WAA SNOW MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY. FROM THE AMOUNTS
PERSPECTIVE...THERE DOES LOOK TO BE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY TYPE
SNOWS...WITH 3-6 INCH AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR WESTERN
MN...THOUGH WARNING TYPE AMOUNTS ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY. 20-30 MPH
SOUTH WINDS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS SNOW...SO THERE WILL BE A
BLOWING SNOW COMPONENT TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS WELL.

THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY WILL USHER IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CONUS NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL SIGNAL THE RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING OF ANY WEAK SYSTEMS WITHIN THIS FLOW SO ALL
WE REALLY CAN SAY WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE IS TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK
WILL BE RETURNING TO THE ABOVE SIDE OF NORMAL...LIKELY WITH FAIRLY
CLOUDY SKIES. ANY PRECIPITATION WE DO SEE NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY HAVE
THE THREAT OF MIXED P-TYPES AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

EXPECTATIONS REMAIN SIMILAR TO EARLIER FORECASTS... WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DID INCLUDE A BRIEF PROB30
AT WESTERN SITES FOR THE POSSIBLITY OF A LITTLE -SN... BUT
OTHERWISE MINIMAL CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDES EAST WHILE A SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST WEST OF
OUR AREA.

KMSP...CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS HIGH... WITH MAIN
UNCERTAINTY BEING WITH HOW LOW WE COULD SEE CEILINGS GET ON
WEDNESDAY... ALTHOUGH THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THURSDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING WEST.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. WEST WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NORTHWEST
AROUND 10 KT.
FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 KT.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTH WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
SATURDAY...VFR. NORTH WIND 5 KT OR LESS BECOMING EAST.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...ADL
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...


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