Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 031127
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
627 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW & FIRE WEATHER

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH IT IS THE
PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO
CONCERN FOR ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA /WEST OF THE ANTICIPATED PRECIP AREA/ WHERE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL NEAR 25 PERCENT AND COMBINE WITH BREEZY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHWEST ONTARIO. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY MEAGER AS IT
PASSES...WITH THE BULK OF THE MODELS INDICATING SATURATION BELOW
7KFT WILL BE DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FARTHER WEST INTO CENTRAL MN.
HOWEVER...MODELS DO PROJECT A HEALTHY BUT NARROW BAND OF FORCING
TO SWEEP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM 18Z TO 00Z WED.
HAVE THEREFORE PULLED POPS A BIT FARTHER WEST INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE DURATION OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT
ANY GIVEN LOCATION IS SHORT...GENERALLY A ONE TO THREE HOUR
WINDOW. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION OF
PRECIP AND THE LIMITED MOISTURE...RANGING FROM A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH OVER MN LOCALES...TO ONE TO TWO TENTHS OVER WEST
CENTRAL WI WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS HIGHER AND
MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...HAVE NUDGED FORECAST HIGHS UP 1-2 DEGREES
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE WESTERLY COMPONENT AND RECENT COOL BIAS.
EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S /WI/ TO THE LOW/MID 70S
OVER MN. SKIES CLEAR THIS EVENING AND WINDS DECREASE BELOW 10 KTS.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94....WITH 40-45 DEGREES TO THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS HOW WARM TO GO ON
FRIDAY...HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY
EVENING...AND WHERE THAT FRONT SETS UP OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW RAISED TEMPS CONSIDERABLY ON FRIDAY INTO
THE MID 80S...AND WOULD NOT AT ALL BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW 90S
OUT IN WESTERN MN.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH GFS 500MB WINDS AND
HEIGHTS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST...WITH A POTENT
SHORTWAVE IN WESTERN ONTARIO. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS THE RIDGE WILL
SLIDE EASTWARD...AND WILL HAVE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND NORTHERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. ON THURSDAY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH....WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE H850 THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE LEANED OVER THE
MIDWEST...SETTING THE STAGE FOR RUNAWAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THAT REASON INCREASED HIGHS ABOUT 3 TO 5
DEGREES...AND NOW HAVE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THIS MAY
NOT BE WARM ENOUGH.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND A FEW
SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONT.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION IS LOW CONSIDERING THE DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 50S...AND LACK OF UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. CONTINUED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS...BUT
NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING SUBSTANTIAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
AROUND 500 TO 750 J/KG OF MUCAPE...AND CLOUD BASES ARE AROUND 5000FT
AGL.

THE MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...WHICH MEANS THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE FARTHER
SOUTH...MEANING LESS CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WARM FRONT
WHEN IT RETURNS NORTH. IN OTHER WORDS...DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS TODAY PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT. FOR THE EASTERN TAF SITES /KMSP-KRNH-KEAU/...EXPECT
ENOUGH MOISTURE/LIFT TO GENERATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. ATTENDANT VSBYS WOULD
DIP TO MVFR...BUT CIGS WOULD LIKELY ONLY REDUCE TO LOW-END VFR.

FARTHER WEST...DRY AIR SHOULD SUPPRESS ACTIVITY AND DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS. CLEARING SHOULD COMMENCE
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.

WEST WINDS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20KTS SUSTAINED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30KTS. DIRECTIONAL
COMPONENT GRADUALLY BECOMES NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...THEN SPEEDS DECREASE BELOW 10 KTS AROUND/AFTER DARK.

KMSP...
THE MAIN WINDOW FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 7
PM. COULD ALSO SEE ISOLATED THUNDER NEARBY TO THE EAST...BUT
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT MSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND NNW AT 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND SW 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...(TODAY)
FORECAST WEATHER ELEMENTS POINT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THIS AFTERNOON. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OVER
EAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
HOWEVER...AREAS GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF A ST CLOUD TO WILLMAR
LINE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. RELATIVELY HUMIDITY VALUES IN
THESE AREAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DIP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND COMBINE WITH WINDS SUSTAINED NEAR 25 MPH. THE MAIN
THING HOLDING BACK A RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS POINT IS THAT THE
GREEN UP IS WELL UNDERWAY. HOWEVER...AFTER COORDINATING WITH
MIFC...FUELS ARE STILL DRY IN DOUGLAS AND TODD COUNTIES. HAVE
THEREFORE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THOSE TWO COUNTIES.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ041-042.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...LS
FIRE WEATHER...LS



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