000
FXUS63 KMPX 132051
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
351 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE WAKE OF A WARM
FRONT...WHICH WAS NEAR THE MN/WI BORDER AT 3 PM. WITH SUNNY
SKIES...WE HAVE SEEN TEMPS WARM INTO THE 50S OVER THE SNOW FREE
AREAS...WHILE THOSE WITH SNOW HAVE FOUND THEIR WAY INTO THE 40S. THE
WARM SPOT SO FAR IS MADISON...WHERE THE COMBO OF SUNNY SKIES AND
DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALLOWED THEM TO BRIEFLY SNEAK OVER THE 60 MARK. OF
COURSE ALL GOOD THINGS MUST COME TO AN END...AND WHEN YOU LOOK TO
THE NORTHWEST YOU WILL FIND WHAT WILL BRING THESE MILD TEMPERATURES
TO AN END BY THE WEEKEND...TWO COLD FRONTS. THE FIRST IS NOW MOVING
INTO NW NODAK...WHILE THE SECOND IS STILL UP ACROSS CENTRAL
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN. THE FIRST ONE IS REALLY NOTHING MORE OF A
WIND SHIFT...WHILE THE SECOND ONE WILL BRING WITH IT THE COLD AIR
FOR THE WEEKEND.

FOR TONIGHT...DID WARM LOWS SOME...BASICALLY KEEPING EVERYONE ABOVE
30. ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE THE FIRST FRONT SWITCH THE WINDS OVER TO
THE WNW OVERNIGHT...THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD...SO NUDGED
THE FORECAST TOWARD THE GEM/ECMWF...WHICH HAVE BEEN THE STRONGER
PERFORMERS IN OUR BOUTS OF WARM WEATHER.

THAT SECOND FRONT SHOWS UP FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE DOING SO WITH
A DECENT PV PUNCH COMING DOWN...AS WELL AS A NICE SLUG OF STRATOCU.
GIVEN THE PV ANOMALY ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...MOST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TRY AND SPIT OUT SOME LIGHT QPF WITH MORE
CONVECTIVE TYPE SHOWERS. GFS/NAM RH PROFILES SHOW DEEP MOISTURE
BEING IN QUESTION...WITH MOST OF THE SATURATED ASPECT OF THE
SOUNDINGS REMAINING WARMER THAN -15C...SO DO NOT THINK PRECIP WILL
BE ALL THAT COMMON. JUST HAVE SOME ISO SHOWER WORDING FOR NORTH OF
I-94...THOUGH THIS IS PROBABLY EVEN OVERKILL. DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WILL SEE NW WINDS START GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH. COOLER
AIR COMING DOWN WITH THESE NW WINDS WILL HELP LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING
TOMORROW...BUT GIVEN HIGH STARTING POINT FOR TEMPS FRIDAY
MORNING...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WARMING TO SEE HIGH UP AROUND 40
ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

AFTER EVALUATING THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND BEYOND...THE PRIMARY
WEATHER CONCERN IS THE STRONG SYSTEM FOR NEXT TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
WHICH IS STILL BEING ADVERTISED BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS...AND
THE COLD AIR INTRUSION INTO THE AREA.  ALL IN ALL...WINTRY WEATHER
IS NOT OVER YET.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A DEPARTING LOW OFF TO THE EAST
IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THE CLOUD COVER HESITATING TO LEAVE AS
WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS SINKING STRAIGHT
SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS SETUP WILL MAKE FOR QUITE A COLD
MORNING ON SUNDAY WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN WESTERN
WISCONSIN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
HOWEVER...AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM FOR THE
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.

THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED BY THE NEWEST RUNS OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF...AS WELL AS THE UKMET. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A
DECENT SNOW EVENT WILL IMPACT THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THIS
SYSTEM IS 5-6 DAYS AWAY...AND THERE IS PLENTY OF DISAGREEMENT OF
EXACTLY WHERE IT WILL TRACK...AND WHEN /FOR INSTANCE THE GFS AND EC
DISAGREE ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND BY A
DECENT MARGIN/.  ITS MUCH TOO EARLY TO TALK SPECIFIC AMOUNTS OR
RAIN/SNOW LINE PLACEMENT....BUT THE PRESENCE OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE
MODEL RUNS FROM LAST NIGHT THROUGH TODAY OFFERS HIGHER CONFIDENCE
THAT SOMEWHERE IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY A DECENT EVENT COULD
UNFOLD.  CERTAINLY STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST AS IT EVOLVES WITH NEW
INFORMATION.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE HOLD
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. IN THIS PERIOD WE SEE A SIMILAR SETUP MUCH
OF THE WINTER HAD WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC EXTENDING NORTH INTO ALASKA.  THIS OF COURSE MEANS BOUTS OF
COLD AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

WARM FRONT TO ABOUT I-35 TO START WILL CLEAR THE REST OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SW WINDS BECOMING ESTABLISHED EVERYWHERE.
SKIES WILL REMAIN SKC UNTIL A SET OF TWO COLD FRONTS WORKS ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT/FRI MORNING. THE FIRST FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO
CENTRAL MN SHORTLY AFTER 6Z AND WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR TURNING
THE WINDS OUT OF THE WEST. THE SECOND ONE WILL TRAIL THE FIRST BY
4-6 HOURS AND WILL TURN THE WINDS TO ABOUT A 300 DIRECTION ALONG
WITH BRINGING SOME GUSTS AOA 20 KTS. BESIDE THE WINDS...GFS/NAM
BOTH SHOW A HEALTHY BATCH OF MVFR CIGS DROPPING DOWN WITH THE
SECOND COLD FRONT. THIS MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH AN
EXTENSIVE BATCH OF MVFR CIGS UP OVER CENTRAL/NRN SASKATCHEWAN...
WHICH WILL HEAD SE TOWARD MN/WI TONIGHT. FOR NOW...WAS
CONSERVATIVE ON THE CIG HEIGHT...BUT COULD CERTAINLY SEE CIGS MORE
010-015 BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES.

KMSP...NO ISSUES EXPECTED REST OF TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT.
SECOND COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL BRING WITH IT THE TREAT FOR MVFR
CIGS. WENT THIS ROUTE BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS IN SASKATCHEWAN...
THOUGH WE MAY NOT SEE CIGS UNDER 030 UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z. IF WE DO
GET THESE CIGS AS EXPECTED...THERE IS A CHANCE THEY COULD COME IN
UNDER 017...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THAT. OTHERWISE...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH WITH REMAINING VARIABLES IN TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NE AT 5-10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SE AT 5-10KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC MVFR/-SN. WINDS S AT 5-10KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...MPG