Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 232044
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
244 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
MUCH...AND WILL LIKELY HOLD AND BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 20S AHEAD OF A
STRONG WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTN. THESE WARMER
TEMPS WILL LIKELY ADVECT SE AND SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN MN DURING
THE EVENING...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AFT MIDNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL LEAD TO SOME -SN
DURING THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MN.
HOWEVER...THE INITIAL DRY AIR MASS IN SOUTHERN MN WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS UNTIL WELL AFT MIDNIGHT AS
ANOTHER STRONGER SHRTWV ACROSS CENTRAL MANITOBA RACING SE OVER
MN/WI BY MORNING. LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS THIS SHRTWV FAIRLY
STRONG...SO I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL IN OUR NE CWA BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. HOW FAR SW THIS
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OCCURS IS DEPENDENT ON THE DEPTH OF THE
MOISTURE AND LOCATION OF THE SHRTWV. BY LATE MORNING...A COLD
FRONT WOULD HAVE MOVED ACROSS MOST OF MN...CAUSING TEMPS DURING
THE AFTN TO SLOWLY FALL. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THRU THE
AFTN AS STRONG CAA DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. AS ALLUDED TO IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD WEATHER IS A CERTAINTY...WITH LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW REMAINING POSSIBLE...BUT NOT LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND
WESTERN WI.

THERE ARE TWO MAIN CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST COMES
WEDNESDAY AS A POTENT PV ANOMALY DIVES ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY AND WILL PRODUCE A QUICK BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL.
THE BULLSEYE OF QPF MATCHES UP WILL WITH THE H850 THETA_E
ADVECTION...BUT THIS FORCING REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. SO...LIGHT
SNOW SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE UPPER MINNESOTA
RIVER VALLEY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION...WITH
DOWNSTREAM SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE
NORTHERN EXTEND OF THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DETERMINE THE STORM
TRACK...AND POTENTIAL FOR SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...DID
NOT STRAY FROM A BLENDED GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS THE HEAVIEST SNOW
CLOSER TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR THAN THE I-90 CORRIDOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015

GUSTY SW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THRU 00Z AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS WITH -SN POSSIBLE IN
KAXN AFT 01Z BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR REFLECTIVITY RUN.
ELSEWHERE...THE MAIN CHC OF -SN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFT 06Z...WITH
THE BEST TIME FRAME BETWEEN 9-15Z WHERE BOTH VSBY/CIGS DROP INTO
THE MVFR RANGE. A PERIOD OF IFR VSBY IN -SN IS POSSIBLE IN EC
MN/WC WI IF THE WX SYSTEM MOVING INTO FAR NW MN STRENGTHENS A BIT
MORE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR UPSTREAM OBS IN NW MN AND SEE IF
AMD ARE NEEDED THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THRU THE
NIGHT/MORNING HRS...WITH A SHIFT TO THE WEST/NW BY MORNING.

KMSP...

MAIN CONCERN IS THE CROSSWIND COMPONENT THIS AFTN WITH WINDS
POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 25 KTS AT TIMES /230-210 DEGREES/. 30 KT
GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT WILL MONITOR IF CONDS CHG.
OTHERWISE...CIGS WILL LOWER TONIGHT TO LOW END VFR WITH A CHC OF
-SN AFT 9Z. MVFR VSBY IN -SN IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 9-15Z. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON VSBYS LOWER THAN 3SM IN -SN. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY OVERNIGHT...AND BACK TO THE WEST AFT 9Z...AND TO THE NW BY
12-15Z AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THRU.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. WINDS NNW 10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS WSW 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JLT



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