000
FXUS63 KMPX 171619
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1119 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.updated for aviation discussion below...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Similar weather pattern today as compared to yesterday, with
south/southwestern winds ushering in milder air across Minnesota,
and western Wisconsin. Temperatures near the afternoon mixing layer
aloft will be 1-3C degrees warmer than on Monday. Thus, 70s are a
good bet across most of central/southern Minnesota, and into western
Wisconsin. There could be a few outlier in the upper 70s along the
lee of the Buffalo Ridge in west central Minnesota. Tonight will be
mild with readings in the 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

The biggest change to the forecast overnight was to raise temperatures
Wednesday through Friday at least a few degrees above guidance.
Highs overachieved Monday and am expecting that trend to continue.
Mixing to 850 mb was the primary method of deriving highs, but
did blend that with some bias corrected guidance to preserve
local effects. Highs Wednesday should be reached by early
afternoon before a cold front pushes through. The cooler airmass
will be short-lived though with WAA already resuming late
Wednesday night. Thursday looks at least as warm as Wednesday,
possibly several degrees warmer across western MN. Friday will be
the warmest of the stretch with all guidance showing mid to upper
70s when mixing down from 850 mb. Gusty southerly flow should make
these values reachable, even if we have some increasing high cloud
cover in the afternoon.

Consistency issues with the cold frontal passage Saturday and
spatial differences in shower development resulted in a lowering
of PoPs this weekend. GFS/GEM are developing showers and storms
as early as Friday night with a frontal passage early Saturday
afternoon. The Euro is 6-12 hours later and favors precip more
Saturday evening. Most areas will probably see rain at some point,
but it`s too early to pinpoint the best time at any given
location.

The pattern shifts next week. Greenland blocking is looking
increasingly likely which would result in good troughing from the
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes to much of the east coast. Therefore,
this week is almost certainly going to be the warmest until next
spring.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

VFR conditions to continue through the period with some high
clouds around. Surface cold front progged into central MN through
18z Wed with s-sw winds becoming w-nw with some gusts possible
with fropa.

KMSP...
Cold front moves to the KMSP area around 21z Wed. VFR with no
concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

Thu...VFR. Winds S 5-10 kts.
Fri...VFR. Winds S 10-15G25 kts.
Sat...VFR. Chc TSRA. Winds SSW bcmg W 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...DWE