Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 221834
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
134 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF A LARGE AREA OF
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH NEARLY
MERIDIONAL FLOW ALOFT...HELPING ENHANCE CAA THIS MRNG. COLDER AIR
OVER RESIDUAL MOISTURE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IS HELPING
PROMOTE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE ATOP THE REGION
UNDERNEATH INCOMING RIDGING ALOFT FROM THE ROCKIES WILL SPELL LOTS
OF SUNSHINE WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TDA DUE TO INCRG H5
HEIGHTS. SFC HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFF TO THE E DURG THE
DAY TDA WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OVHD THRU TNGT. RETURN SLY
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH MEANS LOW TEMPS TUE MRNG WILL NOT
BE AS COOL AS WHAT IS EXPERIENCED THIS MRNG. HOWEVER...THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT INCRS IN CLOUDS TNGT...MAINLY OVER SWRN MN...IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROF ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES. IN ERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA...WHERE THE CENTER OF HIGH PRES WILL STILL
HAVE SOME INFLUENCE...WINDS WILL GO CALM AGAIN WITH THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE CWFA SO PATCHY FOG LOOKS TO AGAIN DEVELOP OVER
WRN WI WWD TO THE MN STATE LINE. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REVOLVE AROUND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BRINGING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WHEN A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND SPREAD CLOUDS OVER MN/WI. ASIDE FROM THE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CLOUDS...A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
AND LACK OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP MOST LOCATIONS
DRY...BUT CONTINUED WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS...EXPECTING WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
TO PERSIST AR ABOUT 5-10 KNOTS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. NEGATIVE
CU RULE CORRECTLY ASSESSED CU DEVELOPMENT MAIN EAST OF THE
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN BORDER...WITH FEW CU SPREADING SLIGHTLY WEST
INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA. DID ADD A TEMPO FOR MVFR CIGS AT EAU
CLAIRE FOR THE THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THICKENING CU DECK THERE.
WINDS WILL SLACKEN NEAR SUNSET AND REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN WI AS THE SURFACE
HIGH AND RIDGE AXIS SLIDE EAST OF THE CHICAGO AREA TONIGHT.
INSERTED FOG INTO THE TAF FOR RNH AND EAU FOR OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. CROSSOVER TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN
WESTERN WI INDICATE SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT AND GIVEN
CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WIND...REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG APPEARS
LIKELY. LEFT FOG OUT OF STC BECAUSE WINDS MAY BE ABLE TO CAUSE
JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT SATURATION.

KMSP...A FEW CU WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TOMORROW. ITS MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO
SATURATE IN THE METRO SO LEFT FOG OUT OF TAF FOR TOMORROW
MORNING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME FOG IN NEARBY RIVER VALLEYS. W
TO WSW WINDS WILL TURN TO SOUTHERLY BY 00-01Z AND REMAIN SOUTHERLY
THROUGH TUESDAY. MID/HIGH CLOUDS START TO SHOW UP NEAR THE END OF
THE TAF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR...BUT MVFR CIGS PSBL OVERNIGHT. WINDS SSE 12-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...SPD






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