000
FXUS63 KMPX 291132
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
632 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NOT A BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FROM YESTERDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A FEW LESS MORNING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A COUPLE
DEGREES HIGHER TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OUT FROM 75 TO 80
DEGREES...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH DOMINATING FOR ANOTHER
DAY. TODAY/S DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY...SPONSORED BY FAINT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HUDSON BAY TROUGH...IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
OVER WEST CENTRAL WI TODAY...POSSIBLY SNEAKING AS FAR WEST AS THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT SHOULD BRING CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS DECREASING BELOW 5
MPH...WITH ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM 50 TO 60 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THERE ARE ONLY SO MANY DIFFERENT WAYS TO DESCRIBE THIS WEEKS WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND IT APPEARS WE ARE APPROACHING
THAT LIMIT. NORTHWEST FLOW...ROCKY MOUNTAIN RIDGING AND JAMES BAY
LOW CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINATE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...WITH
OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP AT THIS TIME IS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE THE THURSDAY NIGHT
PERIOD WOULD BE MOST FAVORABLE...AND INDEED THE MODEL GENERATED QPF
REPLICATES THIS. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL QUICKLY STABILIZE
OVERNIGHT...AND WITH NO LOW LEVEL JET TO WORK WITH FIND IT HARD TO
BELIEVE THAT THE PALTRY UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITHIN THE WEAK FLOW
REGIME WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

SUNDAY NIGHT THE GFS 29.00 BRINGS A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A BETTER CHANCE OF
POPS...BUT THE ECMWF SHEARS OUT THIS WAVE IN THE CONFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...BUT 30 PERCENT POPS SEEM A BIT OVERDONE...AND MAY NEED TO
SCALE THEM BACK AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY...ALONG WITH A FEW DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TS ALONG/EAST OF THE MN/WI BORDER INTO WEST
CENTRAL WI. HAVE MAINTAINED A VCSH AT KEAU BUT THE PROBABILITY OF
THUNDER AT THE FIELD IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUSION AT THIS
POINT. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS TODAY...DECREASING BELOW 5
KTS AGAIN TONIGHT.

KMSP...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGHOUT...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND
6-8KFT TODAY AND NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS. SKIES
CLEAR AFTER 00Z AND WINDS DECREASE TO AROUND 5KTS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...LS