Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 070715
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
315 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN DURING THE MID
MORNING HOURS OF TODAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SKIES
WILL CLEAR DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S. A WAVE ON THE
FRONT MAY BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-94
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

THE PRIMARY ISSUE TODAY IS THE COLD FRONTAL PRECIPITATION EVENT
ALREADY UNDERWAY AS I WRITE THIS. THE SECOND ISSUE THE THE WAVE ON
THE FRONT THAT PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

THE RAIN BAND WITH THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS SEEMS RATHER LOW SINCE THE
FRONT IS COMING THROUGH MID MORNING AND THERE IS EXTENSIVE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS AROUND. THAT WILL LIMIT THE INSTABILITY NEEDED FOR
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENSIVE AREA OF RAIN WITH THE FRONT
IS BEING HELPED BY THE DEEP LIFT CREATED BY THE ENTRANCE REGION
THE 95 KNOT POLAR JET...CROSSING LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING. ONCE
THAT IS OUT OF THE WAY...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY MOSTLY SUNNY WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 70S. THE NEXT WAVE ON THE FRONT NOW
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOSTLY TRACK JUST SOUTH OF STATE THURSDAY. THAT
SYSTEM IS A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
CONFLUENT FLOW FROM THE POLAR JET OVER MICHIGAN THURSDAY. THAT
SHOULD HELP KEEP THAT SYSTEM JUST SOUTH OF THIS AREA. STILL IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-94 COULD SEE A
LITTLE RAIN THURSDAY. IF NOTHING ELSE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF NORMAL NOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE MOVEMENT OF A WARM FRONT
NORTH THROUGH THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
THAT PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE WET. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW SFC
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND A WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO
VALLEY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE
SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS GULF
MOISTURE WILL GET WRAPPED AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER
RETROGRADING BERMUDA HIGH. PRECIPITABLE  WATER VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES SUGGESTS THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT. SHEAR VALUES AROUND 35KTS COUPLED WITH LI/S AROUND -4C MAY
RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS TOO. UPPER WAVES MOVING AROUND THE
TOP OF THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL NECESSITATE KEEPING POPS IN THE GRIDS
THROUGH MONDAY.

HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 80S DURING THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID
MORNING. THEN CLEARING WILL DEVELOP FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE MARINE HEADLINES. NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25
KNOTS SHOULD BUILD WAVES TO 3 TO 5 FEET BY MID MORNING SO IT MAKES
SENSE TO KEEP THE HEADLINES JUST AS THEY ARE. I EXPUNGED THE FOG
FROM THE NEAR SHORE FORECAST AS IT DOES NOT LOOK THIS THIS WOULD
BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE GIVEN HOW COOL AND DRY THE FOLLOWING THE FRONT
REALLY IS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1119 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

NO SHORT TERM ISSUES ARE FORESEEN ON AREA RIVERS. LONG TERM
FORECASTS SPELL SOME CONCERN WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL THAT MAY COME
INTO THE PICTURE LATER THIS WEEK.

RIVERS ALL CONTINUE TO BE STABLE OR FALLING SLIGHTLY. CURRENT
LEVELS ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN NORMAL BY JULY STANDARDS DUE TO THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL EXPERIENCED IN JUNE. RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE ONE-HALF INCH OR LESS. WHILE LOCALIZED
AREAS COULD EXCEED THIS AMOUNT...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BRINGS THE POSSIBILITY FOR MULTIPLE
WAVES OF RAINFALL ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT COULD SET UP SOMEWHERE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH EXPECTED
RAINFALL TOTALS...BUT CURRENT CONSENSUS WITH WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. FORECAST VARIABILITY WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL
REQUIRE A BIT MORE ATTENTION TO UPDATES THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-
     056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...WDM



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