Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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000
FXUS63 KGRR 290730
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THE COLDEST DAY WILL BE HALLOWEEN WHEN A STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT
BLASTS SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE. NORTH WINDS WILL GUST OVER 40 MPH
AND OUR FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON MAY BE SEEN. THE COLD AIR
WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY THEN TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SUNDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE COLD BLAST ON HALLOWEEN DAY IS THE MAIN FOCUS. INTENSE PV
ANOMALY IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS OVER
THE LOWER GRTLKS REGION ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME THE MODELS ARE NOT
GOING WITH A PARTICULARLY STRONG SFC LOW. REGARDLESS... THE WINDS
CRANK UP CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT WITH TIGHT GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE LOWER GRTLKS RGN SFC LOW AND THE SFC HIGH OVER
MINNESOTA.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND GUSTS OVER 40
KTS AND WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AND
FALLING TREE LIMBS ARE POSSIBLE.

AS FAR AS THE SNOW POTENTIAL ON HALLOWEEN... THE DGZ LOOKS PRETTY
HIGH ABOVE 7K FT. ALSO THE NORTH FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ABRUPT DRYING IN SW MI. HAVE KEPT A
MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FCST BUT AM LEANING TOWARD MOSTLY
RAIN BASED ON SURFACE TEMPS AROUND 40. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG/NORTH OF U.S. 10 WHERE SNOW MAY BE MORE
PERSISTENT AND HAVE A CHANCE OF STICKING TO THE GRASS.

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION WITH H8 TEMPS AROUND -3C WILL
LEAD TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS TODAY AS WELL AS SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S. IT
WILL BE BREEZY ALTHOUGH NOT AS BAD AS YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HALLOWEEN STORM MOVES AWAY FROM LOWER MICHIGAN.
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWN WIND FROM
THE POINTS ON THE WESTERN CWA...AND A FEW SHSN OVER THE EASTERN CWA
DOWNWIND FROM LAKE HURON. 30KT NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY
BLOW SOME SHSN INLAND. WE INCREASED POPS A BIT OVER THE NE CWA FOR
THAT POSSIBILITY.

WE/LL SEE A COUPLE OF DAYS OF DRY WEATHER AS THE RIDGE SETTLES OVER
MICHIGAN BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY. THE SYSTEM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WON/T BE NEARLY AS DYNAMIC AS THE SYSTEM THIS
FRIDAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD SUFFICE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 AFTER WHICH A
WARMING TREND WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 50S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

SCT-BKN VFR STRATOCU IS EXPECTED TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WHILE SOMEWHAT UNCONVENTIONAL... WILL ISSUE GALE WARNING ALREADY FOR
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

RAINFALL LAST NIGHT WAS NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CAUSE HYDRO
ISSUES AND NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH MAINLY DRY WX ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. PCPN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CAUSE
HYDRO ISSUES SINCE BASIN AVG QPF AMOUNTS OF ONLY UNDER A HALF OF
AN INCH ARE ANTICIPATED THEN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     GALE WARNING FRIDAY 8 AM TO SATURDAY 8 AM FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...MEADE









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