Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 011758
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
158 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION/HYDROLOGY

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
LEADING TO UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE...THUS A LOCAL THUNDERSTORM COULD
OCCUR. MORNING FOG IS FORECASTED AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE DEALS WITH THE FOG AND THE POTENTIAL NEED FOR A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY. AT THIS POINT THE DENSE FOG HAS BEEN
LOCAL. TEMPERATURES WERE STILL COOLING OFF AND THE FOG COULD STILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. WE DO HAVE SOME WIND UP AROUND 2K FT WHICH
MAY BE DELAYING/LIMITING THE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FORMATION. WILL
HOLD OFF ON A HEADLINE AT THIS POINT AND MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY
THIS AM.

A SMALL RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
ATMOSPHERE DOES BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE...BUT A WARM LAYER ALOFT IS
SEEN IN THE SOUNDINGS. SO MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND
WARM. THERE WERE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY SOUTH OF THE MI
BORDER. WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING...WE WILL SEE
MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW STORMS. WILL
HOLD ONTO LOW POPS FOR MOST PERIODS.

WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST SHOWING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

IT WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND RATHER HUMID THROUGH THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE IN THE
EASTERN CONUS. HIGH TEMPERATURES DAILY WILL REACH THE 85 TO 90
DEGREE RANGE WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 60S. IT WILL BE QUITE HUMID
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.

DRY WX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG RANGE FORECAST
PERIOD AND FOR MOST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NW EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR LABOR DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PRIMARILY VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED/BRIEF MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS IF THEY IMPACT A TERMINAL. HOWEVER SINCE THE
RISK/COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS LOW... WILL JUST INCLUDE VCSH
REMARKS FOR THE AZO/BTL/JXN WHERE THE CURRENT RADAR IS SHOWING
RECENT NEW DEVELOPMENT.

THE THREAT OF DENSE FOG LOOKS LOWER TONIGHT DUE TO WINDS OVER 10
KTS INDICATED OVERNIGHT JUST ABOVE THE SFC. THINKING GENERALLY
JUST LIGHT MVFR FOG OF 3-5 MILES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE WINDS ARE FORECASTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS. THIS
COMBINED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LIKELY ACT TO KEEP WAVES ON
THE LOW SIDE. SOME FOG WILL BE AROUND...WHICH COULD POSE A RISK TO
MARINERS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THEIR
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED...
BUT AS IS THE CASE WITH SUMMER THUNDERSTORMS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND MINOR FLOODING IMPACTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MJS


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