Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 011752
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
152 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST
THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS TRY TO IMPROVE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AROUND 70 WILL BE WELL BELOW THE
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH ARE UP AROUND 80. A DRY FORECAST
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A
WARMING TREND ON TAP. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
80S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1112 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

NO MAJOR UPDATES TO THE FCST THIS MORNING. A LOW STRATUS DECK IS
PLAGUING MOST OF THE CWFA THIS MORNING WITH SOME BREAKS ACROSS THE
SW CORNER...AND ALONG THE U.S.-131 CORRIDOR NORTH OF KGRR. WE
EXPECT THAT THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD EXPAND AS HEATING
TAKES PLACE AND EARLY JULY SUN ANGLE SHOULD DO A NUMBER ON THE
MOISTURE. STRONG INVERSION AROUND 5K FEET WILL CAP ANY VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF CU THIS AFTERNOON...SO NO PCPN EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WITH A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE IS CLOUD COVER. AS
OF 300AM...LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPILLED SOUTH THROUGH ALMOST THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. NORTH FLOW HAS PUSHED THE CLOUD COVER ALL THE WAY TO
NEAR A SOUTH HAVEN TO KALAMAZOO LINE. ALL OTHER AREAS ARE SOCKED IN
WITH LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES GENERALLY BELOW 1000FT.

THE NAM 950MB MOISTURE PROG HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS AND SHOWS
LOW CLOUDS STICKING AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BE
SEEN INLAND...BUT THE NAM INDICATES LOW CLOUDS HANGING ON NEAR THE
LAKE ESPECIALLY FROM HOLLAND SOUTH ALL DAY. IN GENERAL HAVE A MOSTLY
CLOUDY BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST GOING...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE CLOUDS TRY TO HANG ON INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL.

CLOUDS WILL DICTATE HIGHS FOR TODAY OBVIOUSLY AND WENT AROUND 70 IN
MOST AREAS. A BIT COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE WITH A WIND OFF THE
WATER.

THERE ARE HINTS IN THE LOW LEVEL RH MODEL PROGS THAT LOW CLOUDS MAY
TRY TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH. HAVE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH TONIGHT TO COVER THIS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. HIGHS NUDGE INTO THE MIDDLE 70S ON THURSDAY AND
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON FRIDAY.

BOTTOM LINE...A PRETTY QUIET PERIOD WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
ONLY PROBLEM WILL BE THE LOW CLOUDS TODAY...WHICH MAY TRY TO STRETCH
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST AND ALLOW
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WAA TO DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
THAT WILL ALSO LEAD TO INCREASING MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
LATE MONDAY.

SOME MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS INCLUDING LATEST GFS/ECMWF TRENDS
INDICATE A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT SUCH THAT MOST
OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY. LOWERED POPS ON MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
TRENDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY UNTIL FROPA OCCURS. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

CURRENTLY (1745Z) WE HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST OF THE TAF
SITES BUT THE CLOUDS ARE ERODING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE POLAR
JET SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. I AM EXPECTING MOST OF THE TAF
SITES TO BECOME VFR (MOSTLY CLEAR) BY 23Z. THE LAN AND JXN ARE
DEEPER INTO THE LOW CLOUDS...THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER THERE.
EVEN THERE BY 01Z OR SO THEY TOO SHOULD BECOME VFR.

THE GLITCH IN THE FORECAST IS THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY THE NAM
AND LESS SO THE RAP MODEL THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK IN
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST (OFF LAKE HURON) LATER TONIGHT.
I...LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AM NOT SURE ABOUT THIS SO FOR NOW
I HAVE THE CLOUDS COMING BACK INTO LAN AND BTL LATER TONIGHT.

ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY 15Z OR SO THURSDAY AS THE
POLAR JET FINALLY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1112 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

WE HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NRN TWO MARINE ZONES
AND ALSO A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR THE ADJOINING COUNTIES. A
SHIP OB OFF OF LITTLE SABLE POINT REPORTING 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG
WITH THE BUOY OFF OF LUDINGTON REPORTING ALMOST 5 FT WAVES
NECESSITATED THE HEADLINES. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE EXPOSURE OFF
OF A LONG FETCH AND MAYBE SOME SHORELINE CONVERGENCE WITH THE NNW
FLOW.

THE TREND SHOULD BE FOR THE WORST CONDITIONS TO OCCUR AROUND RIGHT
NOW UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. AN IMPROVING TREND WILL THEN
OCCUR...AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE IT WILL BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED
FOR THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A NARROW SWATH OF ABOUT 1 INCH OF RAIN FELL NEAR AND SOUTH OF
LANSING ON TUESDAY. THIS WATER WILL COLLECT IN THE SYCAMORE CREEK
AND UPPER GRAND RIVER BASIN. THE FLOOD ADVISORIES NEAR HOLT AND
IONIA HAVE BEEN EXTENDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE FLOOD ADVISORIES
NEAR COMSTOCK/KALAMAZOO AND NEW RICHMOND CONTINUE... AND RIVER
LEVELS THERE ARE SLOWLY RECEDING. ESSENTIALLY NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ037-
     043.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ848-
     849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ



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