Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 172029

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
330 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Marine

Issued at 330 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

A couple of days of dry weather are coming up before rain chances
increase again. Warmer weather is in the offing too as temperatures
head toward 50 by the weekend. The next surge of colder air will
arrive toward the end of next week.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 330 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

Forecast concerns are minimal and focus on pcpn chances tonight and
again Thursday night.

Local radar shows a few small areas of drizzle or light showers
falling over the central cwa. Otherwise, stratus and fog are
covering southwest Lower. Latest water vapor imagery shows a compact
short wave on near the MN/WI/IA borders. This wave will moving
across southern Lake Michigan tonight. We included the mention of
light drizzle and fog, mostly over the southern cwa, to account for

Wednesday will be mostly cloudy and dry. Ridging aloft and at the
sfc will erode the clouds during the day and we may see some sun

A wave will move north from the Gulf Thursday and Thursday night. We
may see some light rain develop over the far southern cwa late
Thursday night, but chances are low.

We`ll see a steady climb in the temperatures over the next few days
with highs in the mid to upper 30s Wednesday and lower to mid 40s

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

Overall the long term looks to be a mild period, although the ECWMF
hints at a cooling trend into next Tuesday. Highs are forecast to be
in the 40s and 50s which is well above the normal highs that are
near the freezing mark.

The long term period looks to be on the damp side as well (rain), as
we will be in an active pattern. Two upper shortwave troughs affect
our region with clouds and rain before an upper low moves south of
our area early next week. All of these features move our direction
from the southern stream, or out of the southwest U.S.

The first upper shortwave trough moves through our area on Friday,
followed by another which stays just west of the area for Saturday.
A deeper system moves through the Ohio Valley on Monday and Tuesday.
Have chances for rain in much of the extended period with highest
pops for next Monday. So, the bottom line is mild with periods of


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1157 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

We are looking at an extended period of LIFR/VLIFR conditions for
most of the next 24 hour period at all of the terminals. These
conditions are currently in place, and they extend back upstream
across Wisconsin and beyond. Some slight improvement is occurring
across the I-94 corridor with a bit more of a wind there on the
srn periphery of the low. This will likely persist until this
evening when winds will diminish again. The ceilings and
visibilities will drop at that point again.

There will only be slight improvement toward the end of this fcst
period as high pressure starts to build in and we get some diurnal
mixing taking place. Better improvement in the conditions will
likely take place after 18z Wed.


Issued at 330 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

The high building in behind the departing low isn`t all that strong
and so the pressure gradient between the two is weak as well. That
means winds and waves below small craft advisory criteria for the
next couple of days. Winds will, however, increase Wednesday night
into the 10 to 20 knot range pushing waves to 2 to 4 feet.


Issued at 151 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

Monday to Tuesday rain totaled 0.5 to 1.25 inches across the area.
Runoff into already swollen rivers will be efficient due to frozen
and saturated soil. Fortunately, warmer temperatures the rest of
the week will allow ice to melt and should eventually alleviate
the flooding situation at Robinson Township. The Looking Glass
river near Eagle and the Maple River near Maple Rapids are being
monitored for rises to Minor Flood Stage. Several other rivers
above bankfull are expected to rise but should have less
significant impacts to property. The next chances for rain will be
Friday and early next week.




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