Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 030718
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
318 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TUESDAY
MAINLY EAST OF US 131. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL BE
FEATURED FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK...ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY IS FUNNELING IN NW FLOW AND CAA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. WINDS LOOK TO
HOLD UP THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH SOME GUSTS ONCE AGAIN OF 20-30
MPH. ALSO...THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE 5K-10K FT
LAYER TO SUPPORT A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TODAY
AND TOMORROW. THE HI-RES MODELS ARE SUPPORTING THIS AND SO DOES
THE ECMWF. H850 TEMPS OF 10-12C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

OTHER THAN THIS...A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT FOG ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING WITH DEW POINTS STILL HANGING UP AROUND 60F AND WINDS
GOING CALM. DID NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST GIVEN WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND APPEARS RATHER
QUIET.  NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD DOMINATE WHICH WOULD KEEP US
COOL...BUT THIS BECOMES MORE ZONAL INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH MAY SIGNAL
A SLIGHT WARM UP.

ONLY CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD APPEARS TO COME ON
THURSDAY.  A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE SET UP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK ALONG THE FRONT.  AREAS
SOUTH OF I-96 STAND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE.

OTHERWISE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES SUPPLYING MICHIGAN WITH A DRY EASTERLY FLOW.  THE MODELS
ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT IT APPEARS THIS
HIGH MOVES EAST AND WE BEGIN TO WARM.  FOR NOW KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN TEMPS AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

A FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSED THROUGH LATE LAST EVENING AND SKIES WHERE
CLEARING BEHIND IT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT IT
APPEARS THAT DEW POINTS WILL BE DROPPING OFF NICELY...SO THE FOG
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR AND IT WAS LEFT OUT OF THE 06Z
TAFS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN.

WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TOWARD THE NOON HOUR ON MONDAY
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS...BUT THEN DIMINISH JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

SCA WILL BE SET TO EXPIRE AT 8AM AND THAT STILL LOOKS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-3/2-4 FEET
DEPENDING ON THE NSH ZONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGED FROM 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH WITH THE
STORMS LAST NIGHT. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT
RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ037-
     043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...HOVING
MARINE...HOVING



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