000
FXUS63 KGRR 272146
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
546 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 545 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE BEST INSTABILITY...OVER 1000 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW
EAST OF US-131 AND THE AREA OF EFFECTIVE BULK WIND SHEAR OVER 30
KNOTS IS ALSO NOW EAST OF US-131. SO I EXPECT THE SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE MOSTLY EAST OF US-131 AFTER 6 PM. AS A RESULT I WILL DROP
THE WESTERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH BY 6 PM. MEANWHILE
WITH NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACTING I ADDITION STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 8 PM.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE IN OVER ONTARIO THIS WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ACT TO KEEP THE WEATHER COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS WEEK. IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME. TEMPERATURES MAY
APPROACH MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. STORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE
REGION. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY EXISTS THEN...SO I WENT
WITH MAINLY SHOWERS.

WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WE SHOULD SEE MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP TUESDAY. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP THE THUNDER RISK GOING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE UPPER LOW PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. THAT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. I FEATURED
SCT/WDLY SCT STORMS TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WED AND THU. FOR
FRI AND SAT...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE...SO SOMEWHAT OF A LESSER
RISK FOR STORMS THEN. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD AND UNSETTLED AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 22-23Z WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS.
IF/WHEN ANY STRONGER CELLS IMPACT A TERMINAL... LOOK FOR BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN. SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING... FOLLOWED BY
LOWERING CIGS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. WILL GO WITH
MVFR CIGS TONIGHT ALTHOUGH IFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ON MONDAY
THE CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY NOON ALTHOUGH GUSTY
NORTH SFC WINDS TO 20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT AND THEY WILL
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. THAT COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
BUILD THE WAVES TO OVER 4 FEET. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SET OF
HEADLINES GOING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STORMS SHOULD KEEP MOVING ALONG THIS EVENING...SO WIDESPREAD HEAVY
BASIN RAINFALLS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO
MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN IN AN HOURS TIME. THUS THE MAIN HYDRO
RISK FROM THIS SITUATION WILL BE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
THIS EVENING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS